By means of Grigor Atanesian & Tim WhewellBBC Global Service3 hours agoImage caption, Nina and her circle of relatives left their house in Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani troops moved in in September 2023When greater than 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled their properties in Nagorno-Karabakh closing September, Nina Shahverdyan and her brother, oldsters and cousin spent 30 hours at the highway seeking to depart.”Other folks died of center assaults. Other folks died as a result of they had been simply too outdated to are living via that ache. Youngsters had been crying,” she recalls.In a question of days Azerbaijan’s army regained all of the lands it had misplaced in a struggle brought on by way of the cave in of the Soviet Union.What worries Armenians now could be that their neighbour needs extra, although Azerbaijan’s president talks of being shut “as by no means sooner than” to a peace deal.They’ve heard Ilham Aliyev talk sooner than of Armenia being “Western Azerbaijan” and spot it as an indication of approaching invasion. Handiest closing month Armenian High Minister Nikol Pashinyan warned that Azerbaijan was once wanting to begin “a brand new, large-scale struggle”. He has since agreed at hand again 4 deserted border villages in an indication of bettering members of the family.Azerbaijan says Armenian fears are unfounded. On the other hand, President Aliyev has demanded that Armenia give his nation a loose railroad hall via its territory to its exclave of Nakhichevan. Armenia needs to have regulate over the street and the Azerbaijani chief has up to now threatened to take the hall “by way of power”.More and more civilians within the Armenian capital, Yerevan, are taking on army coaching run by way of volunteer organisations. “It’s not relevant in case you are a boy or a lady,” says Nina, as she learns to make use of firearms. “You want to know the way to offer protection to your self in a rustic like Armenia, the place all of the borders may also be attacked.”Symbol supply, ANTHONY PIZZOFERRATO/Heart East Photographs/AFPImage caption, Armenia has agreed at hand again 4 border villages to Azerbaijan, prompting protests from within sight residentsIndependent international coverage knowledgeable Zaur Shiriyev believes all of the discuss Western Azerbaijan was once not anything greater than “a tactical manoeuvre aimed toward compelling the Armenian facet to relinquish claims in regards to the rights and safety of Karabakh Armenians”.However it isn’t simply statements that fear Nina. The warfare between two international locations has prolonged some distance past Karabakh.Prior to Azerbaijan recaptured Karabakh there have been clashes alongside Armenia’s recognised border.Towns deep inside of Armenia’s territory had been shelled for the primary time in 2022 and Azerbaijani forces complex into Armenian territory and stay there. Greater than 300 squaddies died in simply two days, and as just lately as February this yr 4 Armenian servicemen had been killed by way of shelling. In line with a contemporary opinion ballot, Armenians position nationwide safety and border problems as their largest drawback. Their sense of lack of confidence is fuelled by way of disillusionment with Russia, historically observed as Armenia’s safety guarantor.Each Russia and the Russian-led CSTO army alliance of which Armenia is a member stayed impartial and refused to intrude in the newest warfare with Azerbaijan. And Moscow has additionally did not ship $200m of Russian-made guns which Yerevan had already paid for.Armenia had already been having a look West even sooner than the autumn of Karabakh. It hosted a joint army workout with america and has since secured guns gross sales from France and a dedication to coach Armenian officials. The French ambassador stated his nation was once the primary Nato member to supply hands to a proper best friend of Russia.Symbol caption, Karabakh Armenians had been compelled to go away their properties when Azerbaijan recaptured the enclaveFor each govt and the general public, it was once transparent, says Alexander Iskandaryan, director of The Caucasus Institute, a non-partisan suppose tank in Yerevan: “Russia in truth has both by no means been this sort of safety supplier for Armenia because it was once observed in Armenia, or it has now not been that for a long time.”Armenian officers have hinted at plans to use for EU club, and the Ecu Parliament closing month followed a solution on deepening ties with Yerevan.Nikol Pashinyan says he merely needs to “diversify” Armenia’s international coverage, however each Russia and Azerbaijan see a danger to their pursuits and warn of great penalties.Russia’s international ministry says Armenia has change into “a device the West plans to make use of to set the South Caucasus on fireplace”.And but tens of 1000’s of Russians have headed to Armenia since 2022, both on account of their opposition to the struggle in Ukraine or as a result of they’re fleeing mobilisation.They’ve established a bilateral delimitation fee tasked with agreeing on borders. Armenia has promised to go back 4 Azerbaijani villages at the northern border held because the Nineties. Mr Pashinyan has rejected complaint of the deal, arguing it’s the handiest strategy to keep away from struggle.Symbol caption, The village of Movses in northern Armenia, some distance from Nagorno Karabakh, was once reportedly shelled previous this monthBut citizens of Armenia’s border villages worry being left uncovered to assault and being bring to an end from the remainder of the rustic. The high minister has attempted to reassure them.”We do not want you to mention: ‘Oh no, Azerbaijan is 50m from right here’,” the Armenian chief stated. “We wish you so as to say: ‘Wow, Azerbaijan is 50m from right here, let’s move industry there.” After 3 many years of enmity and struggle that turns out relatively a step.Although the 2 leaders can agree phrases, Alexander Iskandaryan of The Caucasus Institute is sceptical of this sort of heat peace, and impartial Azerbaijani knowledgeable Zaur Shiriyev has the same opinion.”It is crucial to not overemphasise the peace settlement.”
