Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, October 9, 2024
Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, Angelica Evans, and George Barros
October 9, 2024, 12:15pm ET
Click on right here to look ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day along the static maps provide on this document.
Click on right here to look ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast.
Click on right here to look ISW’s 3-D management of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a pc (no longer a cell instrument) is strongly advisable for utilizing this data-heavy instrument.
Click on right here to get admission to ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those maps supplement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces day by day through appearing a dynamic frontline. ISW will replace this time-lapse map archive per thirty days.
Observe: The knowledge cut-off for this product used to be 10:20am ET on October 9 and covers each October 8 and 9 because of the truth that ISW didn’t put up a marketing campaign overview on October 8. ISW will duvet next stories within the October 10 Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation.
The Russian army command has most likely ordered Russian forces to habits a moderately excessive pace of mechanized attacks in Ukraine to pursue important tactical advances prior to muddy floor prerequisites in fall 2024 constrain mechanized maneuver. Deficient climate prerequisites in fall 2024 and early wintry weather 2024-2025 will most likely complicate and constrain each mechanized and infantry maneuver, however Russian forces would possibly search to care for their constant offensive power in japanese Ukraine regardless of those difficulties. Ukrainian Nationwide Guard Spokesperson Ruslan Muzychuk said on October 8 that Russian forces are expanding their use of armored cars at the battlefield — particularly within the Kharkiv and Pokrovsk instructions — in an effort to benefit from dry street and terrain prerequisites prior to wet seasonal climate reasons muddy grounds prerequisites.[1] Russian forces had been accomplishing a excessive pace of mechanized attacks in western Donetsk Oblast since overdue July 2024 and feature performed no less than 4 noticed battalion-sized mechanized attacks in japanese Ukraine since July 25, 2024.[2] Russian forces have additionally resumed moderately massive mechanized attacks alongside the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since overdue September 2024.[3] The Russian army command most likely targets for intensified mechanized offensive process to permit Russian forces to advance throughout open fields and consolidate in close by frontline settlements that Russian forces can then use as a foothold for staging and launching offensive operations that search to succeed in operational goals — such because the seizure of Kurakhove in western Donetsk Oblast or the seizure of Pokrovsk.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed on October 9 that muddy seasonal prerequisites have already began in Kursk Oblast and are constraining maneuver for wheeled cars.[5] ISW has no longer but noticed huge reporting that muddy terrain is constraining mechanized maneuver on any sector of the entrance in Kursk Oblast or in Ukraine, on the other hand.
Fall climate prerequisites can even most likely constrain Russian infantry maneuver, and the Russian army command most likely hopes that mechanized advances that Russian forces can reach now will restrict the collection of open fields that Russian infantry must pass after climate prerequisites go to pot. Russian forces have trusted small infantry teams to advance underneath the concealment of windbreaks in open fields from agreement to agreement, specifically within the Pokrovsk course.[6] Fall climate will reason many windbreaks made out of deciduous timber to lose maximum in their foliage and can supply much less concealment for Russian infantry teams right through fall 2024 and wintry weather 2024-2025 — leaving Russian soldiers extra susceptible to pervasive Ukrainian drone reconnaissance and tactical fires.
Russian forces will most likely no longer stop offensive operations following the autumn dust season, regardless that adversarial climate prerequisites will most likely degrade Russian infantry effectiveness. Russian forces made a concerted effort to regain the theater-wide initiative right through the duration of essentially the most tricky climate prerequisites for mechanized offensive operations in fall 2023, on the other hand, and would possibly search to retain the theater-wide initiative regardless that constant offensive power in fall 2024 underneath an identical climate prerequisites.[7] Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian army command are pursuing a method that targets to stop Ukraine from amassing manpower and materiel to contest the theater-wide initiative through keeping up constant offensive power on Ukrainian forces all through the frontline and can most likely proceed to pursue this technique regardless of seasonal constraints on mechanized and infantry maneuver.[8] Russian forces have exhausted most of the reserves that they established for his or her intensified Summer time 2024 offensive operation that has closely occupied with advancing in Donetsk Oblast, and ISW continues to evaluate that the continuing Russian offensive operation will most likely culminate inside the coming months.[9] Deficient climate prerequisites that constrain battlefield maneuver will most likely give a contribution to fruits, however the fruits of the Russian Summer time 2024 offensive operation won’t essentially lead to an entire finish of constant Russian offensive operations all through japanese Ukraine in fall 2024 and early wintry weather 2024-2025. Russian forces have a longtime trend of preventing past their fruits issues in addition to preventing via adversarial climate prerequisites.
US Eu Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Preferrred Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Basic Christopher Cavoli reportedly said that america is withholding a number of US weapon techniques and different army communications networks from Ukraine that might reinforce Ukraine’s warfare effort. The Gentleman Report reported on October 8, mentioning assets accustomed to the placement, that Cavoli defined an inventory of a number of US features that might higher reinforce Ukraine’s warfare effort in a September 2024 report back to the United States Congress.[10] Any other supply accustomed to the topic advised The Gentleman Report that that the listing integrated the air-launched Joint Air-to-Floor Standoff Missile (JASSMs) cruise missile and the Hyperlink 16 device – a knowledge sharing community that america and different NATO nations use for verbal exchange and command and management (C2). The Gentleman Report reported that Cavoli’s document does no longer give an explanation for why the United States has no longer but offered Ukraine with techniques that america assesses may just help Ukraine’s warfare effort. An unspecified supply advised The Gentleman Report that america has most likely evaded offering Ukraine with the Hyperlink 16 device over operational safety considerations.
South Korean Protection Minister Kim Yong-hyun said on October 8 {that a} restricted collection of North Korean army body of workers are most likely working close to occupied Donetsk Town.[11] Kim said that North Korea most likely deployed a number of army body of workers to Ukraine to reinforce Russia’s warfare effort in accordance with a document {that a} Ukrainian missile strike close to occupied Donetsk Town killed a number of North Korean army officers on October 3.[12] Head of the Ukrainian Heart for Countering Disinformation, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, said on October 5 {that a} small collection of North Korean army body of workers, basically engineering body of workers, are working in occupied Donetsk Oblast and are repairing or someway bettering the standard of a considerable amount of low-quality ammunition that North Korea offered to the Russian army.[13]
Russian unlawful hands broker and Ulyanovsk Oblast parliamentarian Viktor Bout reportedly helped dealer a deal for Russia to promote hands price $10 million to Yemen’s Houthi rebels in August 2024 amid expanding stories of doable Russian hands transfers to the Houthis and deepening Russo-Iranian cooperation. The Wall Side road Magazine (WSJ) reported on October 7, mentioning a Eu safety legitimate and different assets accustomed to the topic, that Bout assisted in negotiations for small hands gross sales price $10 million when a Houthi delegation visited Moscow in August 2024.[14] The WSJ’s assets said that the primary two deliveries would include most commonly AK-74 attack rifles and that the Houthis additionally mentioned the prospective switch of Kornet antitank missiles and anti-air guns. The assets said that they have been not sure whether or not Bout negotiated the deal on behalf of the Kremlin or simply with the Kremlin’s tacit approval, and the WSJ famous that the switch has no longer but happened and the supply of the hands continues to be unclear.[15] The WSJ reported that those deliveries may just start once October 2024 to Hodeidah Port underneath the guise of meals provides. Each Bout and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the WSJ document.[16] Russia has reportedly been desirous about Iranian-brokered “secret talks” to switch Russian Yakhont (P-800 Oniks) anti-ship cruise missiles and different army apparatus to the Houthis, however it’s unclear whether or not those transfers have or will happen.[17] ISW continues to evaluate that Russia most likely targets to leverage Iranian proxies to not directly confront the West and form Western determination making, specifically to discourage the West from supporting Ukraine over fears of Russian escalation opposed to the West, together with escalating in a distinct theater.[18]
Russia banned the partially-encrypted communications platform Discord on October 8, most likely degrading some frontline Russian forces’ ad-hoc communications within the close to time period. Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor introduced on October 8 that it had banned Discord inside of Russia on October 8 following fresh Russian fines opposed to Discord for failing to conform to Russian censorship regulations.[19] Some frontline Russian forces use Discord for coordinating operations, together with struggle drone operations, and this ban will most likely hinder some Russian army communications at the frontline within the close to time period.[20] The Kremlin has just lately applied a number of measures that experience threatened frontline ad-hoc verbal exchange techniques, together with restricting the usage of non-public digital units at the frontline, and the Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) has failed to ascertain a safe and efficient legitimate communications device for Russian forces to make use of as a substitute.[21] Some Russian milbloggers spoke back to the Discord ban through reiterating court cases concerning the loss of good enough choice communications techniques for Russian forces at the frontline.[22] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger complained that the Russian MoD has failed to deal with this factor for the previous 3 years however claimed that Russian forces had been ready to make use of different communications services and products to coordinate struggle operations effectively.[23]
Russian forces proceed to make use of chemical guns in Ukraine in a persisted obvious violation of the Chemical Guns Conference (CWC), to which Russia is a celebration. The Ukrainian Make stronger Forces Command reported on October 8 that Russian forces proceed to make use of Okay-51 and RG-VO grenade launchers to release munitions containing destructive however no longer essentially deadly insurrection management brokers (RCA), that are prohibited in struggle through the CWC.[24] The Ukrainian Make stronger Forces Command reported that there were 250 instances of Russian forces utilizing munitions containing unknown sorts of bad chemical brokers in Ukraine in September 2024. The Ukrainian Make stronger Forces Command reported that Russian chemical guns use has been systematic since February 2023 and that as of September 24 Ukraine has recorded Russian forces utilizing munitions supplied with chemical guns 4,228 occasions. ISW has persistently reported on increasingly more not unusual cases of Russian forces utilizing chemical compounds in struggle which can be banned through the CWC.[25]
Key Takeaways:
The Russian army command has most likely ordered Russian forces to habits a moderately excessive pace of mechanized attacks in Ukraine to pursue important tactical advances prior to muddy floor prerequisites in fall 2024 constrain mechanized maneuver. Deficient climate prerequisites in fall 2024 and early wintry weather 2024-2025 will most likely complicate and constrain each mechanized and infantry maneuver, however Russian forces would possibly search to care for their constant offensive power in japanese Ukraine regardless of those difficulties.
US Eu Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Preferrred Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Basic Christopher Cavoli reportedly said that america is withholding a number of US weapon techniques and different army communications networks from Ukraine that might reinforce Ukraine’s warfare effort.
South Korean Protection Minister Kim Yong-hyun said on October 8 {that a} restricted collection of North Korean army body of workers are most likely working close to occupied Donetsk Town.
Russian unlawful hands broker and Ulyanovsk Oblast parliamentarian Viktor Bout reportedly helped dealer a deal for Russia to promote hands price $10 million to Yemen’s Houthi rebels in August 2024 amid expanding stories of doable Russian hands transfers to the Houthis and deepening Russo-Iranian cooperation.
Russia banned partially-encrypted communications platform Discord on October 8, most likely degrading some frontline Russian forces’ ad-hoc communications within the close to time period.
Russian forces proceed to make use of chemical guns in Ukraine in a persisted obvious violation of the Chemical Guns Conference (CWC), to which Russia is a celebration.
Russian forces just lately complicated close to Kreminna, Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Robotyne.
Ukrainian Kharkiv Crew of Forces Spokesperson Vitaliy Sarantsev said on October 8 that Russian forces can have exhausted their preexisting shares of aerial bombs for flow bomb moves.
We don’t document intimately on Russian warfare crimes as a result of those actions are well-covered in Western media and do indirectly impact the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We can proceed to judge and document at the results of those felony actions at the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and particularly on struggle in Ukrainian city spaces. We completely condemn Russian violations of the regulations of armed war and the Geneva Conventions and crimes opposed to humanity even if we don’t describe them in those stories.
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian Primary Effort – Japanese Ukraine (made out of 3 subordinate major efforts)
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces again from the world border with Belgorod Oblast and strategy to inside of tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #2 – Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #3 – Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign
Russian Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts
Russian Technological Variations
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces
Ukrainian Protection Commercial Base Efforts
Russian Knowledge Operations and Narratives
Vital Job in Belarus
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Ukrainian and Russian forces persisted attacks in Glushkovsky Raion west of the primary Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on October 7, 8, and 9 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces performed floor assaults close to Veseloye (south of Glushkovo).[26] Russian assets, together with the Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD), claimed that Russian forces performed offensive operations close to Novy Placed on October 9.[27] Parts of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade and 56th VDV Regiment (seventh VDV Department) reportedly proceed working in Glushkovsky Raion.[28]
Ukrainian forces persisted assaults in the primary Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on October 7, 8, and 9. Russian assets claimed that Ukrainian forces persisted floor assaults east of Korenevo close to Olgovka; southeast of Korenevo close to Lyubimovka and Plekhovo; and northeast of Sudzha close to Russkoye Porechnoye, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Marynovka on October 7, 8, and 9.[29]
Russian forces reportedly just lately complicated in the primary Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid persisted preventing within the space on October 7, 8, and 9. The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed on October 9 that Russian forces seized Novaya Sorochina (north of Sudzha) and Pokrovsky (southeast of Korenevo).[30] Russian milbloggers additionally claimed that parts of the Russian 106th VDV Department have seized over part of Lyubimovka.[31] ISW has no longer noticed visible affirmation of those claims, on the other hand. Russian forces reportedly attacked close to Daryino (southeast of Korenevo), Lyubimovka, and Plekhovo.[32]
Ukraine’s Primary Army Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 7 that it effectively disabled the Russian Baltic Fleet’s Alexandrit-class (Undertaking 12700) Alexander Obukhov minesweeper whilst it used to be docked in Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast.[33] The GUR reported {that a} a hit operation created a hollow within the Alexander Obukhov’s fuel pipe inflicting water to seep into the engine and significantly broken it prior to the vessel’s scheduled sortie. The GUR famous that the Russian army is repairing the Alexander Obukhov.
Ukrainian army government reported on October 9 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian missile and garage ammunition garage facility in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast.[34] Ukrainian army officers said that the power shops flow bombs, missile and artillery techniques, and North Korean- and Iranian-provided guns. Geolocated pictures revealed on October 9 presentations a hearth and secondary detonations close to Karachev.[35] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces downed 24 Ukrainian drones over Bryansk Oblast at the night time of October 8 to 9.[36]
Russian Primary Effort – Japanese Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian function: Push Ukrainian forces again from the world border with Belgorod Oblast and strategy to inside of tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town)
Russian forces just lately complicated inside of Vovchansk amid persisted offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on October 7, 8, and 9. Geolocated pictures revealed on October 7 appearing a Russian soldier elevating a Russian flag in a construction on the Vovchansk Mixture Plant signifies that Russian forces most likely recaptured the plant.[37] Russian forces persisted floor assaults northeast of Kharkiv Town close to Vovchansk and Starytsya on October 7, 8, and 9.[38] A Ukrainian officer working within the Kharkiv course said on October 7 that Russian forces are construction elongated trenches in deep ravines and reduction streams which can be tougher to transparent in addition to interconnected tunnels.[39] Ukrainian Kharkiv Crew of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vitaly Sarantsev said on October 8 that Russian forces have transferred particular engineering gadgets to the Kharkiv course to construct underground verbal exchange and logistics routes.[40] Sarantsev added that Russian aviation is intensifying flow bomb moves within the Kharkiv course and that Russian forces habits 3 to 4 flow bomb moves within the space every week.[41] Ukraine’s Kharkiv Crew of Forces reported on October 8 that parts of the Russian 2d Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 380th Motorized Rifle Regiment (forty seventh Tank Department, 1st Guards Tank Military [GTA], Moscow Army District [MMD] are working close to Lukyantsi (northeast of Kharkiv Town).[42]
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian function: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and northerly Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces just lately complicated northwest of Kreminna amid persisted offensive operations alongside the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 8 and 9. Geolocated pictures revealed on October 7 signifies that Russian forces just lately complicated southward alongside the O-131306 freeway southeast of Makiivka (northwest of Kreminna).[43] Russian forces persisted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk close to Synkivka; east of Kupyansk close to Kucherivka; southeast of Kupyansk close to Kruhlyakivka, Novoosynove, Stepova Novoselivka, and Lozova; west of Svatove close to Vyshneve; southwest of Svatove close to Novovodyane; northwest of Kreminna close to Novosadove, Makiivka, Nevske, Druzhelyubivka, and Hrekivka; west of Kreminna close to Torske; south of Kreminna close to the Serebryanske wooded area space; and southwest of Kreminna close to Dibrova on October 7, 8 and 9.[44] Parts of the Russian ”Uday” drone detachment are reportedly working within the Kupyansk course.[45]
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian function: Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces just lately complicated close to Siversk amid persisted Russian offensive operations within the space on October 7, 8, and 9. Geolocated pictures revealed on October 7 and eight signifies that Russian forces just lately complicated east of Hryhorivka (northeast of Siversk) and into western Verkhnokamyanske (east of Siversk), indicating that Russian forces have most likely seized Verkhnokamyanske.[46] Russian milbloggers claimed that parts of the Russian 2d Motorized Rifle Brigade (third Mixed Palms Military [CAA], previously 2d Luhansk Other people’s Republic Military Corps [LNR AC] seized Hryhorivka and Serebryanka (north of Siversk) and that Russian forces additionally complicated north of Verkhnokamyanske and Sprine (southeast of Siversk).[47] ISW has no longer noticed affirmation of those claims, on the other hand. Ukraine’s Luhansk Crew of Forces Spokesperson Main Anastasya Bobovnikova said on October 7 that Russian forces are utilizing bikes and restricted numbers of Soviet-era armored cars and tanks right through attacks within the Siversk course.[48] Russian forces persisted attacks southeast of Siversk close to Ivano-Darivka and Spirne on October 7, 8, and 9.[49]
Russian forces persisted offensive operations close to Chasiv Yar on October 7, 8, and 9, however there have been no showed adjustments to the frontline on this space. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces complicated additional inside of Zhovtnevyi Microraion in Chasiv Yar itself, however ISW has no longer noticed affirmation of this declare.[50] Russian forces persisted attacks north of Chasiv Yar close to Mynkivka and Kalynivka; in Chasiv Yar itself; and south of Chasiv 12 months close to Stupochky, Bila Hora, and within the course of Oleksandro-Shultyne on October 7, 8, and 9.[51] Drone operators of the Russian “Burevestnik” volunteer detachment (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly working close to Chasiv Yar.[52]
Russian forces just lately complicated in southern Toretsk amid persisted offensive operations within the space on October 7, 8, and 9. Geolocated pictures revealed on October 8 signifies that Russian forces just lately complicated alongside Heroiv Pratsi Side road in japanese Toretsk and alongside Peremohy and Konstytutsyi streets in southern Toretsk.[53] Bobovnikova said on October 7 that Russian forces have entered the japanese outskirts of Toretsk and complicated alongside Tsentralna Side road within the course of the Tsentralna Mine.[54] Bobovnikova said that Russian forces are attacking in small squad-sized teams of three-to-five body of workers within the space and famous that unspecified Russian Spetsnaz forces (Particular Forces of the Primary Directorate of the Basic Workforce of the Russian Armed Forces [GRU]) are working inside of Toretsk.[55] Ukrainian Nationwide Guard Spokesperson Ruslan Muzychuk said on October 8 that Russian forces are on occasion utilizing armored cars right through attacks close to Toretsk and are that specialize in advancing into Toretsk from Niu York and Nelipivka (each south of Toretsk).[56] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces complicated additional inside of central Toretsk and as much as the Tsentralna Mine, however ISW has no longer noticed affirmation of those claims.[57] Russian forces persisted offensive operations north of Toretsk close to Dyliivka; close to Toretsk itself; and south of Toretsk close to Shcherbynivka, Nelipivka, Niu York, and Sukha Balka on October 7, 8, and 9.[58]
Ukrainian forces just lately complicated right through a counterattack east of Pokrovsk and Russian forces just lately complicated southeast of Pokrovsk. Geolocated pictures revealed on October 8 signifies that Ukrainian forces just lately complicated into northwestern Mykolaivka (east of Pokrovsk and west of Hrodivka).[59] Geolocated pictures revealed on October 8 signifies that Russian forces complicated north of Novohrodivka (southeast of Pokrovsk) and marginally complicated in central Zhelanne Pershe (southeast of Pokrovsk).[60] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed on October 8 that Russian forces seized Zoryane Pershe (most likely relating to the satellite tv for pc neighborhood of Zoryane), however ISW has no longer noticed affirmation of this declare.[61] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces working southeast of Pokrovsk additionally complicated west of Novohrodivka, west of Tsukuryne, south of Zhelanne Druhe, and west of Nevelske.[62] ISW has no longer noticed visible affirmation of those claims, on the other hand. Muzychuk said on October 9 that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance teams are demining positions, accomplishing reconnaissance, and putting in remark posts close to Selydove in preparation for long run Russian attacks opposed to the agreement.[63] Russian forces persisted attacks east of Pokrovsk close to Novotoretske, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Mykolaivka, Krutyi Yar, Sukhyi Yar, and Lysivka and southeast of Pokrovsk close to Novohrodivka, Mykolaivka, Selydove, Kalynove, Novoselydivka, Tsukuryne, and Hirnyk on October 7, 8, and 9.[64]
Russian forces persisted offensive operations west of Donetsk Town close to Maksymilyanivka, Heorhiivka, Hostre, Kurakhivka, and Kurakhove on October 7, 8, and 9.[65] A Ukrainian brigade working within the Kurakhove course (west and southwest of Donetsk Town) posted pictures on October 8 appearing Ukrainian forces repelling a company-sized Russian mechanized attack in an unspecified space of this course and reported that Ukrainian forces broken 4 armored cars.[66] Parts of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (GRU) are reportedly working within the southern Donetsk course (west and southwest of Donetsk Town).[67]
Russian forces persisted offensive operations southwest of Donetsk Town on October 9 and reportedly just lately complicated. Russian assets, together with the Russian MoD, claimed that parts of the fifth Tank Brigade (thirty sixth CAA, Japanese Army District [EMD]) seized Zolota Nyva on October 8 and consolidated a foothold inside the agreement as of October 9.[68] A Russian milblogger claimed on October 8 that Russian forces complicated straight away north of Vuhledar.[69] ISW has no longer noticed visible affirmation of those claims, on the other hand. Russian forces persisted offensive operations close to Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Vodyane, Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, and Zolota Nyva on October 7, 8, and 9.[70] Parts of the thirty sixth Motorized Rifle Brigade (29 CAA, EMD) are reportedly working close to Vuhledar and Bohoyavlenka.[71]
Russian and Ukrainian assets didn’t document any preventing within the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border space on October 7, 8, and 9.
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian function: Care for frontline positions and safe rear spaces opposed to Ukrainian moves)
Russian forces just lately marginally complicated south of Stepnohirsk amid persisted attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 7, 8, and 9. Geolocated pictures revealed on October 8 signifies that Russian forces just lately marginally complicated in southwestern Kamyanske (south of Stepnohirsk).[72] Russian milbloggers famous that Russian forces care for positions in Kamyanske and claimed that Russian forces are advancing additional into central Kamyanske.[73] A Russian milblogger claimed that drone operators of the Russian forty ninth Particular Airborne Brigade (a newly shaped brigade this is reportedly subordinated to the 58th CAA) supported the new Russian attack into Kamyanske.[74] Russian forces additionally attacked close to Robotyne and northwest of Robotyne within the course of Novodanylivka on October 8 and 9.[75] Parts of the Russian twenty second Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian Basic Workforce Primary Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly working close to Kamyanske and artillery gadgets of the Russian 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (nineteenth Motorized Rifle Department, 58th Mixed Palms Military [CAA], Southern Army District [SMD]) are reportedly working within the Zaporizhia course.[76]
Russian forces persisted attacks within the Kherson course on October 7, 8, and 9, however there have been no showed adjustments to the frontline on this course.[77] A Russian milblogger amplified claims that Russian Airborne (VDV) forces would not have sufficient boats or right kind coaching to habits a hit attacks onto the islands within the Dnipro River.[78] Parts of the Russian BARS-33 Detachment (Russian Battle Military Reserve) are reportedly working within the Kherson course.[79]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign (Russian Goal: Goal Ukrainian army and civilian infrastructure within the rear and at the frontline)
Russian forces performed a sequence of missile and drone moves opposed to Ukraine at the night time of October 8 and 9. The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported on October 9 that Russian forces released 3 Iskander M/KH-23 ballistic missiles from Kursk Oblast and 22 unspecified drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[80] The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported that Ukrainian forces downed 21 drones over Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv oblasts and that one drone returned to Russian airspace. Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov said on October 9 that Russian forces struck Kharkiv Town two times with flow bombs. [81] Odesa Oblast Army Management Head Oleh Kiper reported on October 8 and 9 that Russian Shahed drones led to a hearth at a multi-story condominium in Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast and that Russian drones struck a nine-story construction in Odesa Town.[82]
Russian forces performed a sequence of missile and drone moves opposed to Ukraine on October 7 and eight. The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported on October 8 that Russian forces struck Odesa Oblast with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles released from occupied Crimea and focused Ukrainian territory with 19 assault drones released from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[83] The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported that Ukrainian forces downed 18 drones in Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, and Ternopil Oblasts whilst diverting one assault drone to Russia. Ukrainian officers reported on October 7 that Russian forces struck a civilian Palau-flagged deliver in Odesa’s port with a ballistic missile.[84] Russian milbloggers claimed on October 8 that Russian forces released missile moves on Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Town and Ilychesk and claimed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian forces who have been loading ships with provides for Ukrainian squaddies.[85] Ukrainian officers reported on October 8 that Russian forces struck a high-rise construction and a college in Kostyantynivka with 3 KAB-250 flow bombs, Kharkiv Oblast with 11 flow bombs, and a civilian endeavor construction in Kharkiv Town with a number of unspecified missiles.[86] Head of the Kherson Town Army Management Roman Marchko said on October 7 that Russian forces released airstrikes on Kherson Town utilizing 4 flow bombs.[87] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed on October 7 that Russian forces struck a Ukrainian ammunition depot close to Osoyivka, Sumy Oblast with an unspecified missile.[88]
Impartial Belarusian tracking staff Hajun Undertaking reported on October 8 that an unknown air goal flew into Ukraine from Belarus at the morning of October 8.[89]
Russian Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts (Russian function: Amplify struggle energy with out accomplishing basic mobilization)
Ukrainian Kharkiv Crew of Forces Spokesperson Vitaliy Sarantsev said on October 8 that Russian forces can have exhausted their preexisting shares of aerial bombs for flow bomb moves.[90] Sarantsev said that Russian forces have intensified their flow bomb moves through the sort of stage that Russian forces are actually fielding aerial bombs that Russia has produced best a number of days in the past in September 2024. Sarantsev said that this means that Russian forces are actually depending on logistics to convey newly-produced bombs to Russian airfields.[91] ISW has up to now noticed Ukrainian forces hanging Russian ammunition warehouses keeping flow bombs.[92] ISW continues to evaluate that persisted Ukrainian moves opposed to rear Russian logistics amenities inside of Russia will generate wider operational pressures at the Russian army, together with forcing the Russian army command to reorganize and disperse reinforce and logistics techniques inside of Russia to mitigate the have an effect on of such moves.[93]
The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) introduced on October 8 that Russian and Chinese language Other people’s Liberation Military (PLA) warships performed joint patrols and anti-submarine workout routines within the northwestern Pacific Ocean following the belief of the “Beibu/Interplay-2024” army workout routines.[94]
The Russian MoD posted pictures on October 8 of Russian forces fielding D-74 122mm artillery weapons, which Soviet forces first fielded in 1956, close to Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast.[95] Ukrainian military-focused information outlet Militarnyi reported that Russian forces have a small amount of D-74s after Soviet forces exported a lot of these techniques from their shares within the Nineteen Sixties and Seventies and that the North Korean, Vietnamese, PLA, and Algerian militaries nonetheless box those techniques.[96] A Russian milblogger claimed that many of those nations have mastered serial manufacturing of D-74 weapons and ammunition, implying that Russia would possibly search to acquire further techniques, spare portions, or ammunition from those nations for its closing D-74 weapons.[97]
Russian state protection conglomerate Rostec introduced on October 8 and 9 that its subsidiaries delivered new batches of unspecified amounts of Russian BMP-3 and BDM-4M infantry preventing cars (IFVs) and Su-34 bomber jets to the Russian MoD.[98] Rostec reported that its subsidiary Kurganmashzavod greater manufacturing of the IFVs through 20 p.c from January to September 2024 in comparison to January to September 2023.[99]
Russian State Secretary and Deputy Protection Minister Anna Tsivileva visited a Russian Southern Army District (SMD) army medical institution and met with Donetsk Other people’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin and Luhansk Other people’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik in Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast on October 8 as a part of the Russian MoD’s persisted efforts to posture itself as offering efficient and bettering hospital treatment to Russian squaddies injured in Ukraine.[100]
The Russian Africa Corps introduced on October 9 that it opened a recruitment middle in St. Petersburg and marketed a regional one-time cost of one.7 million rubles (about $17,494) for signing a freelance with the Russian MoD along with the 400,000-ruble (about $4,116) federal one-time cost upon arrival at an army unit.[101]
Russian Technological Variations (Russian function: Introduce technological inventions to optimize techniques to be used in Ukraine)
Not anything important to document.
Ukrainian Protection Commercial Efforts (Ukrainian function: Increase its protection business base to turn into extra self-sufficient in cooperation with US, Eu, and world companions)
ISW is postponing publishing protection of Ukrainian protection business efforts till additional realize.
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces (Russian function: Consolidate administrative management of annexed spaces; forcibly combine Ukrainian electorate into Russian sociocultural, financial, army, and governance techniques)
ISW isn’t publishing reporting on actions in Russian-occupied spaces these days.
Russian Knowledge Operations and Narratives
Russian Overseas Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on October 8 imprecise Russian threats of escalation as a part of the Kremlin’s reflexive management marketing campaign to discourage Western decisionmakers from permitting Ukraine to make use of Western-provided guns opposed to army objectives in Russia.[102]
The Russian-led Commonwealth of Impartial States (CIS) held a heads of state assembly in Moscow on October 7 and eight and followed a package deal of selections, together with a record organising the parameters of the Kremlin-promoted “Eurasian safety structure” and a decree aiming to ascertain a CIS “deradicalization” device.[103] Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko spoke at CIS conferences on October 8 and glorified the ancient reminiscence of the Soviet Union’s participation within the 2d Global Conflict and accused Western states of supporting Nazism of their persisted reinforce of Ukraine’s protection.[104]
The Russian Investigative Committee, Russian Ministry of Overseas Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, and the Russian Embassy in the UK (UK) reiterated present Kremlin narratives accusing Ukraine of utilizing chemical guns at the battlefield, more likely to distract from Russia’s personal documented use of chemical guns in Ukraine.[105]
Vital process in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its army presence in Belarus and additional combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Crew process in Belarus)
Belarus’ a hundred and fortieth Restore Plant and 814th Repairs Heart could also be repairing and restoring armored cars for the Russian army. Satellite tv for pc imagery revealed on October 3 presentations over 60 tanks and 40 BTR armored body of workers carriers (APCs) on the a hundred and fortieth Plant and further APCs on the 814th Heart.[106] Those Belarusian facilities reportedly didn’t up to now have such a lot of cars close by and that the cars’ deficient prerequisites point out that Russian forces can have fielded those cars in fight.[107] ISW is not able to substantiate whether or not Russian forces have fielded those cars in fight in Ukraine.
Observe: ISW does no longer obtain any categorised subject material from any supply, makes use of best publicly to be had data, and attracts widely on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially to be had satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial information as the root for those stories. References to all assets used are offered within the endnotes of each and every replace.
[1] ; dot ua/2024/10/08/vstygnuty-do-bagnyshha-na-shodi-vorog-aktyvizuvav-zastosuvannya-bronetehniky/
[2] ; ; ;
[3] ;
[4]
[5]
[6]
[7] ;
[8] ;
[9] ;
[10]
[11] dot kr/view/AEN20241008004300315?segment=nk/nk
[12] . dot kr/view/AEN20241008004300315?segment=nk/nk ;
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
[17]
[18]
[19] dot io/information/2024/10/08/roskomnadzor-zablokiroval-messendzher-discord; ; dot ru/document/7183348;
[20] ;
[21] ;
[22] ;
[23]
[24] ; dot ua/2024/10/08/u-zsu-povidomyly-skilky-raziv-rosiya-vykorystovuvala-nebezpechni-himrechovyny/; dot media/853861-genstab-u-veresni-zafiksuvali-250-vipadkiv-zastosuvanna-himicnih-boepripasiv-proti-sil-oboroni/; dot united kingdom/world-news/2024/04/06/russia-using-illegal-chemical-attacks-against-ukraine/
[25] ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
[26] ;
[27] ;
[28] ;
[29] ; ; ; ;
[30] ;
[31] ; ;
[32] ;
[33] dot ua/content material/obukhov-zakhlynuvsia-cherhovyi-rosiiskyi-korabel-vyvedeno-z-ladu.html
[34] ; dot ua/2024/10/09/syly-oborony-urazyly-vazhlyvu-vorozhu-czil-v-bryanskij-oblasti-rosiyi/ ; dot io/information/2024/10/09/nad-regionami-rossii-za-noch-sbili-47-ukrainskih-bespilotnikov-v-bryanskoy-oblasti-atakovan-sklad ;
[35] ;
[36]
[37]
[38] ; ; ; ;
[39] ; dot ua/2024/10/07/ryyut-navit-nigtyamy-okupanty-vrahovuyut-osoblyvosti-relyefu-na-harkivshhyni/
[40] ; dot ua/2024/10/09/pid-pokrovom-gruntu-rosiyany-obgovoryuyut-stvorennya-speczializovanyh-pidrozdiliv-kopachiv/
[41] ; dot ua/2024/10/08/kaby-z-kolis-koly-vygotovleni-aviabomby-yakymy-rosiyany-byut-po-harkivshhyni/
[42]
[43] ;
[44] ; ; ; ; ;
[45]
[46] ;
[47] tps://t.me/boris_rozhin/140161 ; ; ; ; ;
[48] ; dot ua/2024/10/07/vanok-ne-shkoda-rosiyany-atakuyut-v-rajoni-nyu-jorka-ta-chasovogo-yaru/
[49] ; ;
[50] ; ;
[51] ; ; ; ; ; dot ua/2024/10/07/vanok-ne-shkoda-rosiyany-atakuyut-v-rajoni-nyu-jorka-ta-chasovogo-yaru/ ; ;
[52]
[53] ; ;
[54] ; dot ua/2024/10/07/u-toreczku-tochatsya-boyi-za-kozhen-pidyizd-rosiyany-uvijshly-na-shidnu-okolyczyu-mista/; dot media/donbas/853023-situacia-ne-stabilna-boi-za-kozen-pidizd-recnica-otu-lugansk-pro-situaciu-na-fronti/
[55] dot ua/2024/10/09/vorog-prosunuvsya-u-toreczku-po-vulyczi-czentralnij-u-misti-tryvayut-zapekli-boyi/
[56] ; dot ua/2024/10/08/u-sylah-oborony-rozpovily-pro-sproby-vorozhyh-vijsk-ohopyty-toreczk/
[57] ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
[58] ; ; ; ; ; dot ua/2024/10/07/vanok-ne-shkoda-rosiyany-atakuyut-v-rajoni-nyu-jorka-ta-chasovogo-yaru/ ; ; dot ua/2024/10/08/u-sylah-oborony-rozpovily-pro-sproby-vorozhyh-vijsk-ohopyty-toreczk/ ;
[59]
[60] ;
[61]
[62] ; ;
[63] ; dot ua/2024/10/09/vorozhi-dyversanty-pronykayut-u-tyl-syl-oborony-na-shodi-yakymy-ye-zavdannya-rosijskyh-drg/
[64] ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
[65] ; ; ; ; ;
[66] ; dot ua/2024/10/08/rota-okupantiv-z-posylennyam-shturmuvala-nashi-pozycziyi-desantnyky-pryvitaly-kremlivskogo-dyktatora/ ;
[67]
[68] ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
[69]
[70] ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
[71] ;
[72]
[73] ; ; ; ; ; ;
[74]
[75] ; ; ; ;
[76] ;
[77] ; ; ;
[78]
[79]
[80]
[81] ; dot ua/2024/10/09/kabamy-vdaryly-okupanty-po-harkivshhyni-v-oblasti-zagynuly-3-lyudyny/
[82] ; dot ua/2024/10/09/tretya-nich-teroru-odeshhyny-dronamy-poshkodzheno-fasady-bagatopoverhivok-ta-likarnyu/; ; dot ua/2024/10/08/chotyrygodynnyj-teror-odeshhyny-dronamy-u-chornomorsku-spalahnuly-try-poverhy-budynku/
[83]
[84] ; dot ua/2024/10/08/armiya-rf-atakuvala-balistykoyu-czyvilne-sudno-v-portah-odeshhyny-ye-zagybli-ta-poraneni/; dot media/odesa/853013-armia-rf-skeruvala-na-odesu-balisticni-raketi-e-zagiblij-ta-patero-travmovanih/
[85]
[86] ; dot ua/2024/10/08/try-aviabomby-skynuv-vorog-na-kostyantynivku-ye-zagyblyj-i-poraneni/; ; ; ; ; ;
[87]
[88] ; ;
[89] dot media/853327-povitrana-cil-z-bilorusi-zaletila-v-ukrainu-belaruski-gaun/;
[90] ; dot ua/2024/10/08/kaby-z-kolis-koly-vygotovleni-aviabomby-yakymy-rosiyany-byut-po-harkivshhyni/
[91] ; dot ua/2024/10/08/kaby-z-kolis-koly-vygotovleni-aviabomby-yakymy-rosiyany-byut-po-harkivshhyni/
[92]
[93]
[94]
[95]
[96] dot ua/united kingdom/information/rosiyany-vykorystovuyut-122-mm-garmaty-d-74-yaki-mogly-buty-peredani-inshymy-krayinamy/
[97]
[98]
[99]
[100]
[101]
[102]
[103] dot ru/complement/6200; ;
[104] dot ru/occasions/president/transcripts/75290; dot ru/occasions/president/transcripts/75289
[105] ;
[106]
[107]
