His CES keynote had numerous attention-grabbing stuff.
On this podcast, Motley Idiot analyst David Meier and host Mary Lengthy speak about Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s CES keynote, plus:
All “the cool stuff that is coming,” from private supercomputers to self-driving vehicles and AI-rendered worlds.
The rollout of a virtual body of workers.
Why Wall Side road shrugged at Nvidia’s bulletins.
Then, Motley Idiot analyst Jason Moser joins the podcast for a better take a look at PayPal, how the bills processor fell from fresh highs, and why CEO Alex Chriss is returning the corporate to what it does very best.
To catch complete episodes of all The Motley Idiot’s loose podcasts, take a look at our podcast heart. To get began making an investment, take a look at our novice’s information to making an investment in shares. If you end up able to speculate, take a look at this most sensible 10 record of shares to shop for.
A complete transcript follows the video.
This video used to be recorded on Jan. 08, 2025.
Mary Lengthy: There is a birthday celebration in Las Vegas. You are being attentive to Motley Idiot Cash. I am Mary Lengthy joined in this Wednesday morning this snowy in Denver chilly in South Carolina Wednesday morning by means of David Meier. David, thank you for becoming a member of us on Motley Idiot Cash.
David Meier: Thanks for having me.
Mary Lengthy: Nowadays goes to be the Nvidia display. We have were given the Client Digital Display taking place in Las Vegas, and the previous day, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang took the level. I believe it is particularly reasonable to mention that he is a celeb of this AI generation that we are simply starting to step into. He took, once more, the primary level the previous day on the Client Digital Display use that as a chance to unveil numerous new Nvidia trends, a lot of which we are going to get to right through as of late’s display, however he additionally unveiled a fairly new glance. Jensen Huang is generally identified for dressed in a leather-based jacket. The previous day, he stepped it up a notch and donned a shiny leather-based jacket. He even addressed this modification when he stepped onto the level. David, what do you assume? May this be the primary model development of the brand new yr? Are we going to start out seeing glittery leather-based jackets, Jensen Huang in store home windows close to you?
David Meier: Severely, you are coming to me for model remark. [laughs] That is without a doubt a primary. However I used to be studying about that jacket, and it seems that, it is extremely pricey. Possibly simplest in positive boutiques in positive towns. Some of the issues I do marvel although, is that if it catches on simply how briskly will speedy model firms be generating it at decrease priced variations.
Mary Lengthy: We’re going to have to test in on that during a couple of. Relying on how briskly speedy model firms transfer weeks, months, days, in all probability. We’re going to get to the true technological updates that Nvidia mentioned. Jensen Huang unfolded this keynote by means of speaking about their new GeForce GPUs. Those are graphics processing devices principally made for players, creators, builders to make supermega high quality photographs for video video games. As soon as upon a time, the gaming section used to be Nvidia’s largest income supply. Extra not too long ago, that is been in large part eclipsed by means of its information heart trade only for context. Within the ultimate quarter, information facilities introduced in 18.5 billion greenback in income. Gaming introduced in simply shy of $3 billion. I am not one to shrug off $3 billion. David, however why does Nvidia proceed to concentrate on its gaming section when it has such a lot of different fish to fry?
David Meier: Whats up. It is the legacy trade of the corporate. I in point of fact do not assume there may be any approach that they’d prevent supporting the gaming trade. I am a bit of older. I come from a distinct generation of gaming, and rather frankly, I am not a lot of a gamer anymore, however I believe Nvidia nonetheless loves atmosphere the criteria for video high quality. The main points throughout the graphics of gaming as of late are simply completely unbelievable and they are simplest going to get well over the years. That is what Nvidia desires to do. It nonetheless desires to have that logo cachet, if you’re going to. Plus, you are precisely proper, $3 billion is not anything to sneeze at.
Mary Lengthy: Sticking with this client aspect of the bulletins the previous day, Nvidia can also be promoting a $3,000 AI supercomputer. It is referred to as Digits. It is set to be launched in Might. It is in regards to the measurement of a hardcover e-book. It has about 4 occasions the reminiscence of a standard pc, although this can be a desktop, and it might probably run its personal AI fashions that rival the facility of the ultimate model of ChatGPT 3.5. Huang says that if you wish to generate much more energy to run extra advanced massive language fashions, you’ll be able to string two digits in combination and just do that. What does this imply for other folks such as you and me? My bet is that it isn’t in point of fact for us. If that is the case, who is that this souped up private pc for, and the way does that impact Nvidia base line?
David Meier: Yeah, frankly, it doesn’t suggest the rest for customers such as you and me. This isn’t one thing we installed our house and use as our on a regular basis pc. However to that time, who does use it. As I realize it, this pc is being focused to researchers, scientists, and scholars who’re actively operating with and experimenting with AI fashions. With those new machines, what they permit the ones people to do, is do extra paintings in the neighborhood, pondering actually, as an alternative of getting access to an information heart or some cloud computing, they may be able to create their style, create their agent, create no matter they will check, after which check it actually on their desktop.
Then what they may be able to do this approach, they may be able to see what is going on? How does it react? What are the insects? What do I want to alternate? Make the adjustments, proceed to move thru that procedure prior to rolling it out right into a cloud or information heart surroundings. Necessarily, it makes them extra productive. It is doubtlessly a inexpensive solution to do it, and it is more uncomplicated to make use of prior to getting that style skilled on Nvidia {hardware} at the desktop prior to it is going and makes use of Nvidia {hardware} within the information heart.
Mary Lengthy: Any other center of attention of no longer simply the keynote, however CES extra widely, has been self using. Huang throughout the keynote predicted that self-driving cars will change into the primary multi trillion greenback robotics trade. Toyota is only one corporate that is partnering with Nvidia. They will make their complete subsequent technology of automobiles with Nvidia {hardware} and instrument, however self-driving is not only for customers. Any other corporate highlighted, CES has been Aurora. They construct Independent delivery vehicles, and they will be partnering with Nvidia to make use of the corporate’s force OS device to energy long-haul truckers. Idiot self-driving in client cars has already confirmed extra elusive than we now have anticipated. Why is the tech so other for trucking?
David Meier: First off, let’s simply set the level obviously right here. Independent using is an excessively tricky downside to resolve it doesn’t matter what car you are enforcing it in. In truth, Aurora has needed to chase away the release of its plans to get vehicles at the highway not too long ago as it wasn’t rather able. With that being stated, some of the variations between what Aurora is doing at the trucking aspect, and say any person like Tesla is doing at the client car aspect is that Aurora comprises LiDAR Generation. LiDAR stands for gentle detection and varying. Translated into extra more practical English, mainly, it might probably create a 3-D map of a floor that it is taking a look at. The pondering right here with the partnership between Aurora and Nvidia is that Nvidia chips and instrument can assist Aurora’s vehicles procedure that data extra briefly and extra as it should be with the intention to make sure that the truck no longer simplest makes the proper selections, nevertheless it does so safely. That is without doubt one of the largest issues each at the client aspect in addition to the industrial aspect that regulators search for. How are we going to be sure that some of these Independent using cars accomplish that safely?
Mary Lengthy: Huang additionally heralded in a few new AI eras. A kind of eras he referred to as Agentic AI. That is all about fashions that act somewhat than simply inform. ChatGPT tells and agentic AI would then pass do what we inform it to do. There used to be a video voiceover that accompanied the reason of this, and a line caught out to me. The voiceover stated, “AI brokers are the brand new virtual body of workers operating for and with us.” Mainly, firms will be capable of use an Nvidia platform to broaden and teach their very own AI brokers. They are able to teach the ones brokers no longer simply on duties, but in addition on corporate tradition, venture, HR regulations. Corporations can then broaden blueprints of process explicit brokers. Some examples that Nvidia threw in the market used to be an AI analysis assistant, builders, digital lab brokers. For any person who is ever puzzled if AI will take their process in the future, It’s not that i am so certain that this keto is all that reassuring.
David Meier: Let me simply say, that is an excessively rational approach to have a look at brokers. Then again, what if it in point of fact might be extra of an assistant than a substitute? Let’s consider this for just a little. If you want to program an AI agent to do repetitive duties along the extra price added paintings that you simply do, that might in reality make you extra productive. If skilled appropriately, it will make your paintings output extra precious to the corporate’s strategic targets. Let me take my process as an investor. I in reality do use AI-based equipment to assist me in finding and synthesize information and knowledge extra briefly than I may actually do on my own. I will be able to ask the GenAI to mention, “Whats up. Summarize this for me or get me this piece of data.” Then I will be able to take that paintings that is been executed extra briefly than I may do it myself and mix it with my wisdom and my enjoy to make higher making an investment selections. If my corporate or the Motley Idiot or any other corporate sought after to spend money on an agent to make one among its higher employees extra productive, I believe that is a win win, however it’s important to alternate your mindset and that is the reason no longer all the time simple to do within the body of workers.
Mary Lengthy: A step after agentic AI is bodily AI. That is era with an working out of the foundations of the actual international, and that is the reason the place this platform referred to as Cosmos is available in. It is an Nvidia platform that takes in textual content, photographs, and movies to generate movies of actual international environments. Nvidia introduced that that is going to be to be had open supply on GitHub for builders of Independent {hardware}, robots, cars, and many others to make use of those visible creations to show {hardware} about the actual international. Nvidia already has an Omniverse platform. Are you able to stroll us during the distinction between Cosmos and Omniverse and possibly how the 2 would paintings in combination?
David Meier: I believe like you are asking me to be a deity with those Omniverse Cosmos. [laughs] however that however. Let me see what I will be able to do actual briefly right here. What I will do is I will get started from what Nvidia calls or says those two issues are. It says Omniverse is a platform of APIs, SDKs, and services and products that permit builders to combine rendering applied sciences and generative bodily AI into current instrument equipment and simulation workflows. What the Cosmos is, is a platform of state-of-the-art generative international basis fashions. The ones are used to boost up the advance of bodily AI techniques, comparable to Independent cars and robots. That is numerous phrases. Let me see if I will be able to translate that into one thing extra digestible.
I believe what it is announcing is the Omniverse in reality brings applied sciences that Nvidia has evolved into instrument this is already constructed and taking a look to be stepped forward upon. Shall we say I’ve a instrument that creates a bodily AI, I will be able to make it higher by means of the use of the Omniverse platform. While the Cosmos is extra like pre-built worlds that builders can get started from after which make enhancements according to the method or no matter it is making an attempt to resolve. That is so much, however this is the base line. Both approach, Nvidia desires people the use of its {hardware} and instrument when advancing bodily AI applied sciences. It is rather transparent that’s the path we are entering into. Autonomy, whether or not it is robots or cars or no matter it’s without a doubt the path that our technological international is heading. Nvidia desires to be proper there on the very starting of the place this development is from when the craze is beginning with the intention to be sure that it has a powerful basis, is logo is understood, and other folks depend on its applied sciences to push that era ahead.
Mary Lengthy: David, we now have were given hyper real looking gaming graphics. We have were given Independent vehicles. We have were given the start of the cosmos. [laughs] What’s your giant takeaway from the entire bulletins? Is there the rest specifically that you’re like, “Yeah, the remainder is cool, however that is superior.”
David Meier: I am actually like a child in a sweet retailer. [laughs] I actually cherished the whole thing. This is on account of my era background as an engineer. Frankly, I’m simply amazed on the foundational equipment that Nvidia is or might be growing, and I significantly can not wait to look how they affect the longer term, whether or not it is cars, whether or not it is production amenities, whether or not it is commercial or business or humanoid kind robots. Actually, simply open your creativeness and consider what might be even supposing it is like science fiction that you’ve got learn up to now, that is the path that we are going, and Nvidia is a huge a part of the explanation we will get there.
Mary Lengthy: In case you are a child within the sweet store, Wall Side road is extra searching for well being meals as a result of in the end of this, buyers on Wall Side road roughly stated, “Mary, main as much as Huang’s speech the previous day, Nvidia hit an all time excessive marketplace cap of just about $3.7 trillion.” Submit keynote, stocks fell about 5-7% this morning. They are lovely unmoving from that quantity. What did Wall Side road need from this?
David Meier: Oh my goodness. Wall Side road is this type of fickle beast. Glance, I will be able to say it is not possible for me to understand immediately, however in my enjoy in interfacing with Wall Side road, my bet is that they have been searching for extra details about what is taking place within the close to time period, whether or not or no longer that used to be on a bucks of income that we think to generate or will increase incremental progress stats or one thing like that. However they sought after extra arduous numbers that they may necessarily, “put right into a spreadsheet” and determine if the worth of the corporate has modified. However, frankly, that isn’t what the CES is set.
CES is set cool stuff that is coming, no longer stuff that we already know that is right here, and will it generate incremental income as of late? CES is in regards to the long term, and Nvidia did an ideal process of showcasing what their plans are.
Mary Lengthy: David Meier, full-time Silly analyst, part-time model advisor, part-time knower of the Cosmos and the Omniverse. Thanks such a lot for spending a work of your busy agenda with us on Motley Idiot Cash.
David Meier: Thanks such a lot for having me, Mary.
Mary Lengthy: A few yr in the past, new PayPal CEO Alex Chris promised to surprise the arena. Up subsequent, Jason Moser joins me to test in at the bills processor. It is not so candy honey acquisition and whilst going again to fundamentals is a superb guess for rising the corporate.
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Mary Lengthy: Jaymo, I’m going to be fair with you as a client, I in point of fact simplest use PayPal to Venmo my buddies after one individual places their bank card down for a dinner, after which we come to a decision to separate the invoice ourselves to make it just a little more uncomplicated at the waiter. That stated, this can be a corporate that is cranking out greater than $5 billion in annualized loose money float. There is extra to PayPal than simply Venmo. What precisely is that extra, and what’s PayPal doing that I will be able to’t do with Apple Pay or Zell, and the way are they making that cash off of the ones services and products?
Jason Moser: Smartly, I believe that is the alternative and in addition the problem on the similar time for PayPal. PayPal is not utterly distinctive in what it does, given how the cost house has developed over time. However it used to be a primary mover, and as such, it is constructed up an excessively massive community of customers over the years, and that in point of fact is essential. That is an important to luck on this marketplace. Whilst you take a look at PayPal as of late, the trade, there are a selection of various aspects to the true trade itself. There is the core bills trade that in the end is such things as on-line bills. That is the basis. They facilitate on-line transactions between consumers and dealers on e-commerce platforms, marketplaces, person web pages, and so they make transaction charges from that. There is additionally service provider services and products aspect of the trade, and that is the reason in the end answers for companies. They provide a collection of equipment to assist companies of all sizes develop, such things as cost processing, operating capital, invoicing, subscription construction, pass border bills. Once more, transaction charges, hobby on loans, subscription charges for top class services and products, such things as that. There is additionally the Braintree aspect of the trade that may be a little bit lesser identified, however it is a crucial a part of the total corporate.
Braintree is sort of a world cost processing answer that caters basically to high-growth companies. Explicit, it favors the ones in cellular and era areas. However once more, they supply a complete cost platform, suite of equipment that those companies can use to just accept more than a few cost strategies, together with bank cards, debit playing cards, virtual wallets like Apple Pay, Google Pay, or even PayPal itself. There are any other ancillary portions to the trade, such things as Zoom for out of the country remittance and Honey which they got an international financial institution. However the ones are portions of the trade that experience roughly fallen by means of the wayside over the past a number of years.
Mary Lengthy: We are going to discuss that Honey acquisition and Honey aspect of the trade as a result of it is going through some troubles, particularly extra not too long ago, but in addition the PayPal Enlargement tale in just a little. Ahead of we get there, I wish to take a stroll down reminiscence lane as a result of this can be a inventory in an organization that is been on a captivating trip over the last couple of years.
Jason Moser: Very attention-grabbing.
Mary Lengthy: That attention-grabbing trip comes to stocks peaking at over $300 a work in mid-2021. That doesn’t ultimate endlessly. The trip is going downhill from there by means of fall of 2023. Inventory is down off of the ones highs by means of over 80%. At the moment, control brings in a brand new chief, man named Alex Chris. He involves the corporate after just about 20 years at into it, and now Chris has been at PayPal since September 2023. What used to be the location that Chris walked into at PayPal in a bit of greater than a yr in the past?
Jason Moser: Smartly. In regard to the inventory, there used to be numerous irrationality occurring out there throughout that point because of the pandemic. Surely, PayPal wasn’t the one one, nevertheless it without a doubt used to be the only. Alex Chris got here right into a scenario the place former CEO Dan Schulman. I believe he simply misplaced center of attention. I believe he were given a bit of bit forward of his skis, in an effort to talk, caution PayPal to in the end be like an the whole thing app or an ideal app. He made some questionable acquisitions. Once more, going again to that Honey factor, he did not capitalize on earlier acquisitions like Zoom. In the long run, Shulman used to be criticized by means of many, myself incorporated, for no longer in point of fact providing numerous metrics, no longer being as granular as he most definitely might be in what the trade used to be doing, how shall we measure its luck. It used to be very tricky to look what used to be contributing, what to the base line for the trade. I believe Chris got here in.
He noticed this chance to make the case for buyers and get just a little extra concerned with in point of fact going again to the core trade of PayPal, doing what they do smartly, and in point of fact nailing that during getting their percentage of that bills pie. You glance to his first Arnie Schall, he used to be speaking about information issues that might assist them use AI to in the end energy a powerful buying groceries advice engine, to supply extra related rewards and financial savings again to their consumers thru card systems and whatnot, and in the end lowering the friction within the consumer enjoy, and so, ensuring to convey extra metrics in order that buyers may in reality measure the trade as a result of as I defined prior to, there’s a lot to the trade itself. I believe that is made a giant distinction over the past yr plus.
Mary Lengthy: Chris remains to be lovely new to the location, however Wall Side road appears to be inspired together with his paintings up to now. Since his first day at the process, PayPal inventory has risen 56%. You discuss Chris attempting to go back the corporate again to fundamentals and what it does smartly, however there may be extra to his plan for PayPal than simply that. What has he executed to raised place the PayPal of as of late than the PayPal of September 2023?
Jason Moser: I believe Chris has executed an excellent process of executing on what he stated he sought after to do. In the long run, he sought after to get again to specializing in such things as all of the transaction lifestyles cycle for the corporate. PayPal is a two-sided community that comes to customers and traders and ensuring to keep in mind that complete transaction lifestyles cycle. Introducing such things as categorical checkout and habitual bills. Bettering the PayPal enjoy for traders on Shopify. Shopify is a large opportunity-comer house. Bringing top delivery advantages to PayPal customers. In reality specializing in bringing that PayPal and Venmo branded card device to the vanguard there as a result of, as we all know, rewards playing cards can also be very tough retention equipment for customers.
Mary Lengthy: I kicked this off by means of speaking about how I take advantage of PayPal as a client thru Venmo. On the newest profits presentation, the corporate highlights Venmo’s enlargement past peer-to-peer bills. You mentioned stepping extra into the arena of trade and dealing with companies. What does Venmo’s function in that enlargement appear to be? How very important is getting past peer-to-peer bills to Venmo after which how very important is Venmo to PayPal’s progress tale?
Jason Moser: Smartly, I believe getting Venmo past simply peer-to-peer bills is very important as a result of to me, Venmo is an very important a part of the PayPal tale. I take a look at it as PayPal 2.0. What I imply by means of this is in the event you consider this subsequent technology of customers, those more youthful customers, they are very plugged into Venmo. That could be a verb for numerous more youthful customers who won’t in point of fact be conversant in PayPal itself. They are going to have by no means even used PayPal, however they no doubt use Venmo. In reality, with the ability to take Venmo and do with it what they have been in a position to do with the PayPal logo over time, I believe is one thing this is completely very important. The excellent news is, it in point of fact does appear to be that may be a precedence for Mr. Chris, and it does appear to be he is executing on that entrance, as smartly.
Mary Lengthy: PayPal and Venmo in combination have 200 million per month lively customers. The choice of transactions consistent with account has climbed about 9% yr over yr. Energetic accounts, in the meantime, has grown just one% in the newest quarter. You mentioned PayPal attempting to succeed in more youthful customers. They are doing a just right process at getting their current customers to make use of PayPal extra, however how precisely does the corporate pass out and enlarge the bottom that it already has?
Jason Moser: Smartly, I believe a part of this is within the partnerships that they have got created with entities. They are like Shopify, you were given Adian, I believe FiServe as smartly. Proceeding to search out techniques to introduce themselves into that price proposition, into that price chain. Visa and Mastercard, any other just right instance there. However in the end, demonstrating that price proposition for each customers and traders, once more, we mentioned how tough that two-sided community is. You’ll be able to’t simply center of attention on one. You in point of fact have to concentrate on each. That is some of the thrilling portions of PayPal’s long term is that two-sided community. If they may be able to do this and proceed to foster those relationships and partnerships and introduce themselves in new techniques into that price chain, I believe the longer term remains to be very thrilling for the corporate.
Mary Lengthy: On the most sensible of our dialog, you discussed Honey, and that may be a browser extension that PayPal purchased for roughly $4 billion in 2020. Extra not too long ago, that browser extension and PayPal by means of extension, were within the information as a result of Honey has been accused of being a rip-off and of stealing cash from the very influencers who’re paid to advertise the product. It used to be simply sued, I believe the day or two days prior to recording this by means of a YouTuber or LegalEagle. How severe an issue is this complete Honey debacle for PayPal?
Jason Moser: Smartly, I will be able to say this initially. I take a look at this. I believe Honey used to be a foul acquisition. I bear in mind once they introduced it. I wasn’t in point of fact conversant in Honey as a client. I went in there and fiddled round with it and idea. what? This simply is not in point of fact very user-friendly. It simply wasn’t in point of fact one thing I noticed $4 billion value of price in. Now, the upside is that used to be most commonly money deal. It is one thing that we will be able to see most probably simply the worth of this deal written off over the years. It used to be one thing that former management did. It is not deadly, in anyway, that is the excellent news. However I believe it is a just right instance of former management dropping sight of the place they will have to have in point of fact been targeted.
Mary Lengthy: Once we discuss pageant on this house, Apple Pay and Zell instantly come to my thoughts. There is additionally Block. There is Adien, there may be Shift4. You discussed Visa and Mastercard, and the ones in point of fact stick out to me as a result of I believe as although they are off and omitted of the contest dialog after we’re excited about PayPal. But when I am the use of PayPal, I am not the use of my bank card. The place do the bank card firms in reality have compatibility in to this equation?
Jason Moser: It is a private enjoy, needless to say. I’m going to say on every occasion I take advantage of PayPal or Venmo, I am the use of one card or any other. It will depend on the way you fund the transaction. Both you are investment it thru your exact PayPal account or your Venmo account, or it is one thing that is related to a financial institution debit card or a bank card. A just right instance. I run maximum of my subscription services and products thru my PayPal, which might be all paid for with my High visa. The theory there may be that once that card is ready to run out, I simplest must replace it as soon as thru my PayPal account as an alternative of getting to move replace it by means of each and every provider. That is a bit of little bit of a hack there for the ones . Once I ship my daughter’s cash thru Venmo that is related to our Financial institution of The us Visa debit card, once more, it is appearing the inventive ways in which PayPal and Venmo are in a position to paintings into that price chain. They are able to see Visa and Mastercard, no doubt as competition, but in addition as companions.
Mary Lengthy: What returns do you are expecting PayPal to generate over the following 5-10 years? We talked so much in regards to the progress tale, what Alex Chris has already arrange the corporate to do, what his plans are for the longer term. Relating to numbers, how do you are expecting that to play out?
Jason Moser: I take a look at it over the following 5 years. I do not believe it is outlandish to be expecting 15% annualize. It is mainly taking a look at a double in 5 years. I believe they may be able to do that thru a mixture of the efforts that Chris is endeavor. They’re going to keep growing that high line whilst lowering the bills of the trade in bettering profitability. Then you definitely discussed on the most sensible of the display the money float, and that is the reason in point of fact vital as a result of they proceed to repurchase stocks, and the ones repurchases are, in reality, bringing the proportion account down. This is one thing that they’re going to proceed to do, and as we all know, is that percentage depend comes down in concept, is meant to make the ones ultimate stocks just a bit bit extra precious as a result of there are fewer of them. I do not believe 15% annualized for the following 5 years is outlandish in any respect.
Mary Lengthy: As all the time, other folks at the program could have hobby within the shares they mentioned, and the Motley Idiot could have formal suggestions for or in opposition to, so do not purchase or promote shares founded only on what you listen. All private finance content material follows Motley Idiot editorial requirements and aren’t authorized by means of advertisers. The Motley Idiot simplest choices merchandise that it could individually counsel to buddies such as you. I am Mary Lengthy. Thank you for listening Fools. We are off day after today to honor former president Jimmy Carter. We’re going to be again on Friday. See then you definitely.
