Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive could turn out to be as ineffective as Russia’s winter offensive due to the difficulties of trench warfare and Russia’s fortified positions. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian military could still make substantial advances that may bring an end to the war this year. But what should a conclusion to this conflict look like?
To start with, Emmanuel Macron’s proposal that “we must not humiliate Russia” as a means of achieving peace is not a viable option. Humiliating Russia is essential to ending its imperialistic aggression. It is important to recall that this is not the first time Vladimir Putin has launched an offensive against his neighbors. In 2008, he attacked Georgia, and in 2014, he invaded Ukraine. Furthermore, Putin has been engaging in other forms of aggression, such as cyberattacks and assassinations, for years. All previous acts of aggression remained unpunished, which likely only emboldened Russia to pursue subsequent conquests. If Ukraine’s war with Russia ends without a clear and devastating defeat for Putin, his regime will simply move on to the next target without a significant deterrent in place.
If Ukrainian forces succeed in penetrating Russian lines, Putin may seek a settlement. There could be an argument for a cease-fire and armistice similar to the Korean model, but this would only freeze the current conflict, allowing Putin to resume it once Russia has regrouped and strengthened. In contrast, providing Kyiv with the tools it needs to win, such as long-range guided missiles, tanks, Predator drones, and F-16s, to retake Crimea and the breakaway “republics” in the east, is a more promising approach. This is what Ukrainians want and are entitled to, morally and legally. Winning in this manner would also show despots, both in and outside of Russia, that aggression against democracies are futile.
Retaking Crimea will be challenging, and there will be associated costs, including populations with differing views on Kyiv’s efforts for liberation. Hence, the second approach would aim to assist Ukraine in restoring its pre-February 2022 borders only, with compensation in the form of European Union membership and a U.S.-Ukraine security treaty modeled on the U.S.’s security cooperation with Israel. Dictators like Putin attack the weak, not the strong, and strengthening Ukraine will diminish Russia’s incentive to pursue aggression. Ultimately, helping Ukraine achieve its territorial integrity will be a victory not just for Ukraine but also democracy.
