USGS: “This map presentations fresh unrest at Kīlauea volcano. Yellow circles mark earthquake places from January 31, 2024, thru February 3, 2024, as recorded by means of HVO seismometers. Coloured fringes denote spaces of floor deformation over a one-day time frame from 6 p.m. HST on January 31 thru 6 p.m. HST on February 1, 2024. Extra fringes point out extra deformation. The complicated patterns point out general deflation of the summit space as magma moved underground to the southwest, the place the patterns display uplift and spreading (in conjunction with subsidence) because of intrusion of a dike (a vertical sheet of magma).”
(BIVN) – In a while after the new magma intrusion at Kīlauea volcano used to be the subject of a Volcano Watch article, and simply ahead of a Magnitude 5.7 earthquake demanded consideration, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory had supplied an in depth knowledge commentary at the tournament to the southwest of the summit.
From the February 9 commentary by means of the USGS HVO:
SUMMARY
Kīlauea volcano isn’t erupting. A magmatic intrusion passed off southwest of Kīlauea’s summit between January 27 and February 3, 2024. Charges of seismicity and floor deformation extending southwest from Kīlauea summit towards the Koa‘e fault machine greater considerably and peaked on January 31. Greater than 700 earthquakes had been detected that day, and deformation patterns and floor cracks indicated the emplacement of a dike (a vertical sheet of magma). Charges of seismicity and deformation reduced steadily on February 1-2, after which extra considerably on February 3. Seismicity and deformation charges have stabilized as of February 9. The total lower in seismicity and deformation means that this tournament is waning. Then again, renewed episodes of task stay an opportunity and an eruption may happen with little complex caution. No strange task has been famous alongside Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone.
HVO raised the Volcano Alert Stage for Kīlauea from ADVISORY to WATCH, and the Aviation Colour Code from YELLOW to ORANGE, at 4:41 a.m. HST on January 31, when there used to be escalating unrest with greater attainable of eruption. HVO reduced the Volcano Alert Stage from WATCH to ADVISORY, and the Aviation Colour Code from ORANGE to YELLOW, at 8:10 a.m. on February 3, as volcanic task reduced considerably however persevered to be intently monitored for conceivable renewed build up. Kīlauea stays at ADVISORY/YELLOW on the time of this data commentary.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS
The newest eruption at Kīlauea summit ended on September 16, 2023. Following this eruption, seismicity and floor deformation remained at background ranges till October 4-6, 2023, when greater than 600 earthquakes and greater charges of floor deformation had been recorded south-southwest of Kīlauea summit. Seismicity and inflationary floor deformation all through the Kīlauea summit area persevered intermittently, waxing and waning with days-long sessions of greater task alternating with days-long sessions of very little task. Classes of greater task incorporated greater than 200 earthquakes in line with day on October 22, October 26, November 21, December 7, and December 29-30, 2023. The moderately much less lively sessions between those peaks nonetheless incorporated 30-50 earthquakes in line with day.
On January 27, 2024, task started to extend and greater than 250 earthquakes passed off all through the day. Then on January 31, charges of seismicity and floor deformation greater considerably. HVO raised the Volcano Alert Stage for Kīlauea from ADVISORY to WATCH, and the Aviation Colour Code from YELLOW to ORANGE, at 4:41 a.m. HST on January 31, in keeping with escalating unrest with greater attainable of eruption. Greater than 700 earthquakes had been recorded on January 31. Earthquake depths remained constant, 1–4 km (not up to 1–2.5 miles) under the skin, and magnitudes ranged from a most of simply over M3 to not up to M1. HVO box crews at the rim of the caldera felt many earthquakes and reported rockfalls in Halema‘uma‘u all through the morning. International Positioning Machine (GPS) tools southwest of the caldera recorded as much as 20 cm (8 inches) of movement. Tiltmeters positioned close to Uēkahuna bluff (summit) and Sand Hill (southwest of the caldera) confirmed over 60 microradians of alternate. Satellite tv for pc information received between 6 p.m. HST on January 31 thru 6 p.m. HST on February 1 confirmed complicated patterns of floor deformation; general deflation used to be seen on the summit, whilst areas southwest of the summit confirmed uplift as much as about 50 centimeters (20 inches) in addition to spreading (in conjunction with subsidence). Magma didn’t succeed in the skin, even if floor cracks related to floor deformation had been later seen by means of HVO box crews southwest of the caldera.
USGS: “On February 3, 2024, a group of HVO scientists documented new floor cracks in 3 spaces of the Maunaiki Path within the Ka‘ū Wasteland, brought about by means of the intrusion at Kīlauea south of the summit caldera. Those cracks basically reduce the free Keanakāko‘i tephra which blanketed the area in 1790 CE. Some cracks had been over 100 ft (30 meters) lengthy. Be aware the individual for scale in the precise higher portion of the photograph.” (USGS photograph by means of N. Deligne)
On February 1, task started to lower steadily after the height on January 31, with roughly 650 earthquakes recorded that day. On February 2, roughly 550 earthquakes had been recorded. Tiltmeters in a similar fashion recorded lowered charges of floor displacement. On February 3, task reduced considerably, with not up to 200 earthquakes all through the day, and stabilization of floor tilt. HVO reduced the Volcano Alert Stage from WATCH to ADVISORY, and the Aviation Colour Code from ORANGE to YELLOW, at 8:10 a.m. HST on February 3, as volcanic task reduced considerably however persevered to be intently monitored for conceivable renewed build up.
As of February 9, seismicity and floor deformation underneath the summit and area extending 8-11 km (5-7 miles) southwest of the caldera below the Koa‘e fault machine has stabilized. Earthquake counts are not up to 10 occasions in line with hour, dispersed extensively from the summit to the southwest. Earthquake depths stay constant at 1–4 km (not up to 1–2.5 miles) under the skin and magnitudes vary from simply over M2 to not up to M1. Tiltmeters close to Sand Hill and Uēkahuna proceed to turn low charges of floor deformation.
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) fuel emission charges remained low all through this intrusion. Box measurements indicated an SO2 emission charge of roughly 70 tonnes in line with day on January 17, 2024, which used to be very similar to measurements in October, November, and early December 2023.
Charges of seismicity and deformation within the higher a part of Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone had been low to average right through this tournament. No important task used to be seen at the center to decrease areas of the East Rift Zone.
INTERPRETATION AND CONTEXT
Patterns of earthquakes and floor deformation point out that magma intruded underneath the south finish of the caldera starting at the morning of January 27. This task waxed and waned till January 31 when a great deal greater seismicity and floor tilt indicated {that a} dike (a vertical sheet of magma) used to be being emplaced, triggering episodic felt earthquakes and rockfalls inside Halema‘uma‘u. By way of 5 p.m. HST on January 31, seismicity migrated southwest of the caldera in opposition to the Koa‘e fault machine and tiltmeters on the summit and south caldera space started to report sturdy deflation. Modeling of tiltmeter, GPS, and satellite tv for pc radar interferometry (InSAR) information recommend that magma inside the preliminary dike migrated southwest underneath the Koa‘e fault machine.
Intrusive task started within the south caldera area and prolonged southwest towards the Koa‘e fault machine the place it intersects the Southwest Rift Zone close to Maunaiki. Floor cracks extending tens of meters (yards) in period and centimeters (inches) in width, had been seen within the neighborhood of Pu‘ukoa‘e and Dual Craters at the jap fringe of the Southwest Rift Zone, suggesting the top of a dike intruded underneath this space. The cracks basically reduce the free Keanakāko‘i tephra which blanketed this space of the Kaʻū Wasteland area in 1790 CE. The relationship between the south caldera, the Koa‘e fault machine, and the Southwest Rift Zone don’t seem to be well-understood, however the fresh intrusive task means that the world is dynamic and new pathways between those spaces will also be established.
A lot of intrusions were recorded on this area previously, maximum lately in October and December 2023, in August 2021, and in Would possibly 2015. The August 2021 intrusion right here passed off over a few week and used to be adopted by means of an eruption inside Halema‘uma‘u a few month later (the eruption that started on September 29, 2021). The Would possibly 2015 intrusion right here lasted not up to per week and passed off right through ongoing eruptions inside Halema‘uma‘u and at Pu‘u‘ō‘ō. Intrusions additionally passed off right here within the Sixties, Seventies, early Nineteen Eighties, and in 2006. Best this sort of occasions led without delay to a short lived eruption in that space; in December 1974, an intrusion started following this trail southward, however then erupted for not up to 24 hours as a chain of quick fissure segments with a complete period of five km (3 miles) because it grew to become southwest.
WHAT WE ARE DOING
HVO raised the Volcano Alert Stage for Kīlauea from ADVISORY to WATCH, and the Aviation Colour Code from YELLOW to ORANGE, at 4:41 a.m. HST on January 31 because of the numerous escalating unrest with greater attainable of eruption. HVO therefore reduced the Volcano Alert Stage from WATCH to ADVISORY, and the Aviation Colour Code from ORANGE to YELLOW, at 8:10 a.m. on February 3, as the possibility of eruption reduced. HVO will think again alert ranges and notices as task warrants.
HVO continues to intently track Kīlauea volcano, observing for any indicators of speeded up charges of earthquakes or floor deformation, or indicators of shallowing earthquake places, which in most cases precede a brand new outbreak of lava or propagating dike. The total lower in seismicity and deformation means that this tournament is waning. Then again, renewed episodes of task stay an opportunity and an eruption may happen with little complex caution.
HVO will proceed to put up day by day updates on our site, in conjunction with footage, movies, and maps as they turn out to be to be had (right here).
HVO is in widespread conversation with Hawai‘i Volcanoes Nationwide Park and Hawai‘i County Civil Protection. With permission from Hawai‘i Volcanoes Nationwide Park, HVO put in two semi-continuous GPS stations on February 2 to be able to extra comprehensively track floor deformation south-southwest of Kīlauea summit.
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
The total lower in seismicity and deformation means that this tournament is waning. Then again, unrest to the south-southwest of Kīlauea’s summit continues, renewed episodes of heightened unrest stay an opportunity, and an eruption may happen with little advance caution. It’s unclear how lengthy unrest will proceed. It’s not conceivable to mention with simple task if present unrest will result in an eruption. Even supposing it’s not conceivable to forecast an actual result, listed below are 3 conceivable situations that might play out within the coming days to weeks:
1. Magma continues to amass within the area south-southwest of Kīlauea’s summit, however sooner or later stops and not using a eruption.
2. Magma continues to amass within the Kīlauea summit area, with an eventual eruption within the caldera, very similar to fresh eruptions at Halema‘uma‘u. On this state of affairs, we might be expecting to look indicators of the magma reservoir underneath Halema‘uma‘u re-pressurizing previous to speeded up charges of floor deformation and earthquakes underneath the caldera 1-2 hours ahead of lava reaches the skin.
3. Magma continues to amass within the area south-southwest of Kīlauea’s summit, with an eventual eruption out of doors of the caldera, to the south or southwest. On this state of affairs, we might be expecting to look earthquake places migrating clear of the caldera as seen in December 1974, adopted by means of accelerating charges of floor deformation and earthquakes 1-2 hours ahead of lava reaches the skin.
