Nairobi, Kenya – Weeks after Rwanda-backed M23 rebels claimed regulate of the Congolese town of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, combatants are advancing in neighbouring South Kivu regardless of calls from regional leaders for a right away ceasefire.
Over the weekend, leaders from the Southern African Construction Neighborhood (SADC) bloc and the East African Neighborhood (EAC) bloc met in Tanzania, to talk about some way ahead to revive peace in japanese Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), whilst the struggle could also be top at the time table at an African Union overseas ministers’ assembly in Ethiopia this week.
On the Tanzania summit – attended through Angola, Burundi, the DRC, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe – leaders referred to as for a right away cessation of hostilities and the outlet of humanitarian corridors.
Additionally they directed defence chiefs from each the EAC and SADC to expand a securitisation plan for Goma and surrounding spaces, with out elaborating on the main points. M23 had declared a ceasefire most effective days previous, however resumed assaults this week.
For years, Rwanda has been accused through the United International locations, the DRC and different nations of investment and supplying M23 with guns, allegations Kigali has lengthy denied. Throughout this contemporary offensive, Rwanda has neither showed nor denied that its infantrymen are working around the border, but additionally says it’s appearing in self-defence.
M23 claims it’s combating for the rights of ethnic Tutsis within the DRC, and that it’s enticing in a “defensive” struggle – although this has been refuted through critics who level to the gang actively seizing territory and mines, committing rights violations, and fuelling mass displacement.
On the similar time, Rwanda has been accused of exploiting the DRC’s mineral assets thru M23, allegations Kigali denies. M23 seized the coltan-rich space of Rubaya in DRC final yr, taking regulate of the mines there.
Ultimate month’s fight for Goma used to be the second one time the revolt crew took over the important thing town, after first quickly taking regulate of it in 2012, forcing greater than 140,000 other folks to escape.
In keeping with the UN, since January 26 just about 3,000 other folks were killed and a couple of,800 others injured “in assaults through the M23 and their allies”. For the reason that get started of 2025, no less than 237,000 other folks were displaced through the struggle.
Kenyan President and East African Neighborhood (EAC) Chairman William Ruto (2L) and Zimbabwe President and Southern African Construction Neighborhood (SADC) Chairman Emmerson Mnangagwa (C) attend the Odd Joint Regional Summit on the State Area in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania, on February 8, 2025 [Ericky Boniphace/ AFP]
The DRC lower ties with Rwanda after the revolt crew’s contemporary advance on Goma and referred to as for the UN to sanction Kigali. Within the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, crowds additionally burned portraits of President Paul Kagame in protest in opposition to Rwandan involvement.
So what does Rwanda must do with the new escalation in DRC; is there an army way to the disaster; does M23 have official grievances; and are mineral-rich spaces an element?
The roots of DRC-Rwanda tensions
The origins of the decades-long struggle in DRC will also be traced again to post-colonial battles for energy after the rustic’s independence from Belgium in 1960, and later, a spillover of the civil struggle and the 1994 Rwanda genocide.
After the 1994 atrocities – all the way through which Hutu extremists killed loads of hundreds of basically Tutsi other folks in Rwanda – many Hutus fled Kagame’s new executive and settled around the border in japanese DRC. Amongst them had been Hutu militias, together with the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), which started regrouping within the DRC. In reaction, Tutsi militias organised in opposition to those teams throughout the DRC, with guns give a boost to from Rwanda.
One of the crucial lively armed teams has been M23, which took its identify from the March 23, 2009 accord that ended a prior Tutsi-led riot in japanese DRC. The gang accuses the DRC of now not honouring a deal to combine Congolese Tutsis into the military and management. It additionally says it’s going to protect Tutsi pursuits in opposition to teams just like the FDLR.
After M23’s final rebel resulted in 2013, it remained dormant for years till 2022 when it as soon as once more introduced assaults amid disagreements with the Congolese executive, which has refused to immediately negotiate with the gang till it disarms.
In keeping with proof from UN mavens, Kigali backs M23 with guns. The UN additionally discovered proof of Rwandan troops throughout the DRC. In keeping with a December 2024 document (PDF), infantrymen from the Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF) had been in Congolese territory between Would possibly 21, 2024 and August 2, 2024.
“The information at the floor and all to be had proof make it transparent: Rwandan Defence Drive (RDF) infantrymen are on Congolese soil, actively combating along the M23 revolt crew,” Kambale Musavuli, an analyst with the Middle for Analysis on Congo, instructed Al Jazeera.
“During the last two years, the UN Crew of Professionals has documented RDF troop actions and the switch of complicated army apparatus – together with short-range air defence (SHORAD) programs, evening imaginative and prescient goggles, and anti-drone missiles immediately related to the Rwandan army,” he added.
On the other hand, in a up to date interview with The Gentleman Report, Rwandan President Kagame denied having any wisdom of RDF troops in DRC.
“There are lots of issues I don’t know,” he mentioned. “However if you wish to question me, is there an issue in Congo that considerations Rwanda? And that Rwanda would do the rest to offer protection to itself? I’d say one hundred pc,” Kagame added within the interview.
Rwanda President Paul Kagame (L), Angola President Joao Lourenco (C) and Democratic Republic of the Congo President Felix Tshisekedi (R) all the way through talks in Luanda on July 6, 2022, following a surge in violence in japanese DRC [Jorge Nsimba/AFP]
Victor Tesongo, a spokesperson for the AFC-M23 revolt alliance in DRC, additionally just lately mentioned the gang receives no give a boost to from Rwanda.
However, M23 individuals have ancient ties with Rwanda. The chief of the gang, Sultani Makenga is a former military colonel who used to be amongst Congolese Tutsi combatants within the Rwandan Patriotic Military (RPA), the army wing of the Rwandan Patriotic Entrance (RPF), all the way through Rwanda’s 1990-1994 civil struggle. He later was an officer within the Congolese military prior to defecting to steer M23 in 2012.
M23, and Makenga, were accused of struggle crimes together with compelled recruitment of kid infantrymen, massacres, rapes and assaults on civilians in japanese DRC.
In the meantime, Rwandan forces were accused of violating the DRC’s sovereignty.
“Rwandan forces should withdraw from the DRC … The sovereignty and territorial integrity of the DRC, a member of the African Union, is being violated through a overseas army drive,” mentioned the analyst Musavuli.
He mentioned, “Historical past presentations that reining in M23 and its Rwandan backers is imaginable”, pointing to “sustained diplomatic and financial drive” from Western nations and establishments that labored to finish the final M23 incursion in 2012-2013.
On the other hand, he mentioned, this time: “We see a obtrusive double same old: Western countries unexpectedly impose sanctions and take motion in conflicts like Ukraine, but they hesitate in terms of the struggling and destabilisation of the Congo.”
Mineral-rich japanese DRC
The struggle between Rwanda and the DRC has escalated over the past yr following the overdue 2023 go out of EAC regional forces from North Kivu province. Within the months that adopted, M23 used to be in a position to snatch vital territories within the mineral-rich area, together with Rubaya – which is a prime mining web site for coltan, a key useful resource in cell phone manufacturing.
Rwanda has additionally been accused of running with the M23 to take advantage of DRC’s huge minerals and uncooked fabrics. A 2024 UN document printed that between 3,000 and four,000 Rwandan infantrymen had been combating in japanese DRC along the M23.
M23 has additionally seized vital mining territories and provide routes for the export of minerals to Rwanda since April 30, 2024, consistent with a UN mavens’ document.
The revolt crew makes $800,000 a month from taxes in mining spaces, the document mentioned.
The UN document confirmed that minerals had been loaded two times per week into convoys of 4 to 5 cars with the capability to move as much as 5 tonnes according to load. From mid-Would possibly to overdue October, the volumes and frequency of minerals leaving Rubaya for Rwanda had been consistent, with the AFC-M23 controlling the mining, business and shipping of about 120 tonnes of coltan per 30 days.
Labourers paintings at an open shaft of the SMB coltan mine close to town of Rubaya within the Jap Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2019. The city used to be taken through M23 final yr [File:Baz Ratner/Reuters]
Musavuli mentioned Rwanda’s movements in japanese DRC are “enabling the continuing plundering of the rustic’s huge mineral wealth whilst displacing thousands and thousands”.
Rwanda-based researcher and analyst Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, alternatively, brushed aside allegations that Rwanda exploits the DRC’s minerals and assets, insisting that the life of the FDLR – whose individuals participated within the Rwandan genocide – used to be the core drawback each for Kigali and the Tutsi neighborhood within the DRC.
“M23’s upward push is attached to [the DRC’s] persecution of the Tutsi neighborhood. Accusations that Rwanda is after minerals are a distraction. There is not any severe executive that will ship troops into some other nation to scouse borrow minerals. That’s now not how governments paintings,” he mentioned.
In keeping with Goolooba-Mutebi, the security considerations of the Tutsi neighborhood within the DRC must be addressed.
“Rwanda is just too small to have the funds for to take a seat through and look ahead to the FDLR to invade its territory. To forestall such an end result, they’ve what they name a safety posture. Necessarily it signifies that, must they identify that there’s a chance of being attacked, they’ll strike first,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
Army or diplomatic answers
The new onslaught at the two Kivus is the worst escalation of struggle in additional than a decade. In spite of making claims of a ceasefire, M23 has persisted to advance against the town of Bukavu, reportedly seizing two within reach cities Ihusi and Kalehe, this week.
The gang has threatened to proceed its offensive to the capital, Kinshasa. On the other hand, analysts doubt whether or not it could take the capital.
DRC’s President Felix Tshisekedi, in an deal with in a while after M23 captured Goma, promised a energetic army reaction in opposition to the gang.
Onesphore Sematumba, the Nice Lakes senior analyst for the World Disaster Crew, mentioned all events concerned within the struggle should search a non-military resolution.
“The sidelining of major actors like M23″ in diplomatic talks, he mentioned, “wishes to finish.
“This revolt crew has proven the facility they’ve nowadays after taking Goma … The events concerned can’t proceed to forget about them,” Sematumba added.
Each Rwanda’s Kagame and DRC’s Tshisekedi failed to turn up at Luanda, Angola in December, the place peace talks had been to be held, led through Kenya’s former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Angola’s Joao Lourenco.
Because the EAC and SADC leaders met this weekend in Tanzania, Tshisekedi once more failed to wait the summit in individual, sending his high minister to constitute him, despite the fact that he later joined just about.
Tshisekedi has to this point refused to barter with the M23.
Struggle-displaced other folks board vans to depart the camps in Goma on February 2, 2025, after M23 took regulate of the important thing town [Alexis Huguet / AFP]
In the meantime, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa referred to as for all uninvited overseas defense force to withdraw from DRC.
The DRC has steadily depended on overseas troops and the UN to assist battle rebels. In December 2023, after a request from Kinshasa, the UN peacekeeping challenge MONUSCO started a phased withdrawal; alternatively, that has now not concluded. At about the similar time, the DRC did not renew the mandate of the EAC Regional Drive, which used to be deployed in 2022 after M23 regrouped.
Following the go out of the EACRF, the Southern African Construction Neighborhood (SADC) approved a couple of thousand troops to deploy to the DRC. As of this month, South Africa had misplaced 14 infantrymen in japanese DRC.
Analysts have warned that the DRC’s reliance on overseas troops to defeat revolt teams may end up expensive over the years, as the rustic has now not absolutely supported its personal military to battle their battles.
Sandile Swana, a political and governance analyst in South Africa, mentioned that the DRC’s reliance on mercenaries and overseas armies to defeat M23 made the potentialities of a peace step forward more difficult.
“The 2 events will proceed to fail to barter if Tshisekedi is trusting other folks to rescue him from M23 rebels, as a result of from face worth he does now not have the army energy to defeat those rebels on his personal,” Swana mentioned.
In the meantime, if hostilities proceed, the UN has warned of a big humanitarian and regional disaster. “If not anything is finished, the worst is also but to come back, for the folks of the japanese DRC, but additionally past the rustic’s borders,” UN human rights leader Volker Turk mentioned final week.
Analyst Musavuli agreed. “The present disaster within the DRC isn’t merely a home struggle however a regional and world factor that calls for daring, decisive motion. With out addressing those core problems, peace within the Nice Lakes area will stay elusive.”
