BEIRUT (AP) — The final time Syrian President Bashar Assad was once in deep trouble was once 10 years in the past, on the top of the rustic’s civil battle, when his forces misplaced regulate over portions of the most important town, Aleppo, and his combatants have been last in at the capital, Damascus.Again then, he was once rescued by way of his leader global backer, Russia, and longtime regional best friend Iran, which along side Lebanon’s tough Hezbollah armed forces helped Assad’s forces retake Aleppo, tipping the battle firmly in his want.Now, as insurgents pursue a surprise offensive that temporarily captured now not simply Aleppo, however the important thing town of Hama and a string of different cities around the nation’s northwest, the Syrian chief seems to be in large part on his personal.Russia is preoccupied with its battle in Ukraine, and Hezbollah, which at one level despatched hundreds of its combatants to shore up Assad’s forces, has been weakened by way of a yearlong battle with Israel. Iran, in the meantime, has noticed its proxies around the area degraded by way of Israeli airstrikes.
Additionally, Syrian troops are exhausted and hollowed out by way of 13 years of battle and financial crises, with little will left to battle.
So will Assad’s rule cave in within the close to long run?“The approaching days and weeks will probably be important in figuring out whether or not the rebellion offensive poses an existential risk to the Assad regime or whether or not the regime manages to regain its footing and thrust back on contemporary rebellion positive factors,” stated Mona Yacoubian, an analyst with america Institute for Peace.“Whilst weakened and distracted, Assad’s allies are not likely to easily cave to the rebels’ offensive,” she wrote in an research.
Now not out of the woodsUntil just lately, it appeared that Syria’s president was once virtually out of the woods. He by no means in reality gained the long-running civil battle, and massive portions of the rustic have been nonetheless out of doors his regulate.However after 13 years of battle, it gave the impression that the worst was once over, and that the arena was once able to put out of your mind. As soon as seen as a regional pariah, Assad noticed Arab nations warming as much as him once more, renewing ties and reinstating Syria’s club within the Arab League. Previous this 12 months, Italy additionally made up our minds to reopen its embassy in Damascus after a decade of strained family members.
Within the aftermath of some of the global’s biggest humanitarian crises, support teams and global donors in Syria started pivoting towards spending extra at the nation’s restoration than on emergency help, offering a lifeline for Syrians and restoring fundamental services and products.However then the unexpected offensive introduced by way of insurgents on Nov. 27 reignited the battle and stuck everybody off guard with its scope and pace.It additionally left Syria’s neighbors worried, cautious that violence and refugees may just spill throughout borders and frightened concerning the rising affect of Islamist teams, a big fear for many of Syria’s Arab neighbors.
Geopolitical shiftsAnalysts say a confluence of geopolitical trends starting with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, adopted by way of the Israel-Hamas battle in Gaza that began on Oct. 7, 2023, helped create the chance for Assad’s combatants to pounce.Because the rebels complex this previous week, Syrian forces seemed to soften away, hanging up no resistance, with a number of reviews of defection. Russian forces performed occasional airstrikes. Hezbollah’s chief in Lebanon stated the crowd will proceed to enhance Syria, however made no point out of sending combatants once more.“The rebellion attack underscores the precarious nature of regime regulate in Syria,” Yacoubian wrote.“Its unexpected eruption and the rate with which rebellion teams controlled to overhaul Aleppo … reveal the complicated dynamics that live slightly below the skin in Syria and will become superficial calm into main battle.”Aron Lund, a Syria professional with Century World, a New York-based suppose tank and a researcher with the Swedish Protection Analysis Company, stated the trends in Syria are a geopolitical crisis for Russia and Iran.“They too have been certainly stunned by way of what came about, and they’ve all varieties of useful resource constraints,” together with Russia’s battle in Ukraine and Hezbollah’s losses in Lebanon and Syria.
Exhausted and brokenWhile the rustic’s battle traces had been in large part stalemated since 2020, Syria’s financial woes have best multiplied up to now few years.The imposition of U.S. sanctions, a banking disaster in neighboring Lebanon and an earthquake final 12 months contributed to the truth that virtually all Syrians face excessive monetary hardship.That has led to state establishments and salaries to wither.“If you’ll’t pay your squaddies a dwelling salary, then possibly you’ll’t be expecting them to stick and battle when hundreds of Islamists hurricane” their towns, Lund stated. “It’s only an exhausted, damaged and dysfunctional regime” to begin with.A part of the insurgents’ try to reassert their grip on Aleppo, the town the place they have been ousted in 2016 after a grueling army marketing campaign, was once to factor a decision to executive squaddies and safety businesses to defect, granting them what they known as “coverage playing cards,” which provide some kind of amnesty and assurances that they gained’t be hunted down.
The spokesman for the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, stated greater than 1,600 squaddies have implemented for the playing cards over two days in Aleppo town.Loads of defectors coated up out of doors town police stations Thursday to sign in their main points with the insurgents.Hossam al-Bakr, 33, firstly from Hama who served in Damascus and defected 4 years previous to Aleppo, stated he got here to “settle his place” and get a brand new ID.The laminated card passed out to every defector was once titled the “defection card.” It confirmed the title, ID quantity and position of carrier of every defector. It’s issued by way of “The overall command: Army Operations room.”On Thursday, Maj. Mohamed Ghoneim, who was once answerable for registering the defectors, stated greater than 1,000 squaddies or cops got here to sign in. Some who have been in ownership in their reputable weapons passed them over, he added.“There are hundreds who wish to observe,” he stated.Charles Lister, an established Syria professional, stated whilst many of the global group has written off the battle as both frozen or completed, the armed opposition hasn’t ever given up and has been coaching for this kind of situation for years.A rag tag staff of militias, plagued by way of infighting and competition, spent years getting ready and organizing, propelled by way of a dream to regain regulate of territory from Assad.“The regime has been extra inclined during the last 12 months or two than it has in all probability been all over the whole lot of the battle,” Lister stated. “And it has gotten used to the concept if it might probably wait issues out, it’s going to in the long run turn out to be the victor.”___Karam contributed reporting from London.
