Wastewater testing is revealing a surge in COVID-19 infections across the US, with an estimated one-third of Americans expected to contract the disease by late February. Despite this, pandemic fatigue is leading many to downplay the new wave, driven by the JN.1 variant. It is important to note that COVID-19 is still claiming thousands of lives each month, and older, sicker individuals need to take extra precautions. There is also the risk of long COVID, which can affect even young and healthy people for years.
Data from wastewater testing indicates that the current wave of COVID-19 peaked in late December, with 1.9 million daily infections, the highest since the omicron wave of 2021. Some experts are advocating for the maintenance and expansion of wastewater surveillance on a state and local level, despite the public’s weariness of COVID-19 mitigation efforts.
The slowdown in deaths and hospitalizations due to high vaccination and immunity rates may be contributing to “descent neglect,” where people become more relaxed as situations improve, according to Michael Hoerger, an assistant professor at Tulane University School of Medicine.
There has been a slower decline in deaths in states with older populations, such as Vermont, Hawaii, and Maine. These trends are leading to increased concerns in various states. For instance, Indiana’s most populous county has requested residents with mild symptoms to avoid crowded emergency rooms to prioritize care for seriously ill COVID-19 and respiratory illness patients. Moreover, Michigan and Illinois have reported significant increases in COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations, respectively.
The widespread public impatience with wearing masks and other precautions is increasing the likelihood of further infections among vulnerable individuals. While earlier in the pandemic, Clemson University was lauded for its wastewater surveillance program, it has since lost interest in the initiative. Despite the evident benefits of the testing, the university has ceased monitoring, a move that has been criticized by environmental engineering professor David Freedman.
Vermont, which had the lowest COVID-19 death rate in the country in 2021, now ranks fourth in the number of deaths per capita. The state has experienced a significant increase in COVID-19-related hospitalizations this year and has recommended that people wear masks if they believe they have been exposed or are at high risk of serious illness.
The latest wave of infections may surpass the 2021 omicron wave in some areas, including Santa Clara County in California. While hospitalizations and deaths in the area remain low, vulnerable people are being advised to consult with doctors and consider wearing masks. These measures are especially important as even individuals without underlying risk factors can experience long COVID.
Jay Breneman, the president of the Erie, Pennsylvania, school board, is a testament to the seriousness of long COVID. Despite being athletic and in his late thirties, Breneman experienced a debilitating recovery from COVID-19 and continues to wear a mask in public to avoid falling ill again. His experience underscores the need for continued vigilance in the face of the pandemic.
