ERBIL, Iraq — Following a drone attack in Jordan that led to the deaths of three American service members, experts suggest that U.S. forces have numerous potential targets to select for a strong response. However, Iran-backed militant groups in the Middle East have been given ample time to make preparations, as the United States has been hinting at retaliatory strikes for several days. According to U.S. officials who spoke to NBC News on Thursday, American forces are anticipated to target locations in countries other than Iran in reaction to the recent drone strike. This operation is likely to be the most assertive response by President Joe Biden to militia groups that have carried out over 160 attacks against U.S. forces since the conflict between Israel and Hamas began in Gaza on October 7.
“Now is the time to diminish even more capability than we have previously taken,” expressed Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during a news conference on Thursday. Austin additionally stated that the level of knowledge Iran had about the attack on Tower 22 in Jordan, which resulted in the deaths of Spc. Kennedy Sanders, Spc. Breonna Moffet and Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, is not of much significance, because Iran sponsors these groups. “Without that facilitation, these kinds of things don’t happen,” he remarked regarding the strike, which also left over 30 service members injured and has been attributed by the U.S. to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias including the militant group Kataib Hezbollah.
A satellite image of Tower 22 in northern Jordan where three U.S. service members were killed.Maxar via Getty ImagesAccording to Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank, both Iraq and Syria harbor hundreds of Iran-linked military sites. Lister stated that there is an extensive list of potential targets, explaining that the Beit Al Zajaja office block, also known as the “Glass House,” at the Damascus International Airport in Syria is recognized as a crucial Iranian command center. He added that the Dimas air base to the west of the city also serves as a major Iranian facility for producing drones. The vast Imam Ali base at Al Bukamal, located on Syria’s eastern border with Iraq, contains hardened missile tunnels and an Iranian training camp and could potentially accommodate up to 20,000 troops, as per Lister, who frequently provides briefings to the U.S. government on the situation in Syria and Iraq.
In November, the Middle East Institute documented 200 targeted Israeli strikes on locations known to house Iranian forces or affiliated militia over the past decade. The institute stated that many of the military industrial sites they targeted were operated by Iranians. However, it was noted that while strikes on airports in Damascus and Aleppo temporarily incapacitated them, these facilities were only offline for a few days. As time passes without U.S. action, Iran and its allies have had the opportunity to make necessary preparations. A senior Iraqi official mentioned on Wednesday that Iran-backed militia groups were gearing up for the anticipated American strikes.
“Armed factions relocated numerous headquarters within Iraq and on the border with Syria, and moved their weaponry to new locations out of fear of being targeted by the Americans,” the official disclosed. He further shared that Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, the head of Iran’s secretive Quds Force, which is part of the Revolutionary Guard, visited Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, this week and held meetings with leaders of the factions forming the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Ghaani, who succeeded Gen. Qassem Soleimani after his 2020 death in a U.S. drone strike at Baghdad airport, advised them to “decrease the military escalation against U.S. forces and stabilize the security situation,” the official added.
Lister justified the actions of the militant groups, stating that it is understandable for them to go into hiding as they await the response from the U.S., “to not pop their heads up from the parapet and offer the U.S. targets.” However, Myles Caggins, a retired U.S. colonel who served in Iraq, cautioned that the militants are still active despite taking cover. “They’re still maneuvering, they’re still collecting intelligence, they’re still planning additional strikes on U.S. targets,” stated Caggins, who now runs the Words Warriors, a business consultancy service in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil. Additionally, Akram al-Kaabi, the secretary general of the Nujaba Movement, another faction of Islamic Resistance in Iraq, vowed on Friday to continue fighting until U.S. forces withdraw from Iraq and the Israel-Hamas conflict comes to an end.
According to Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, a Belgian think tank focused on preventing wars, previous U.S. strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iran-backed militias in other regions failed to deter attacks on U.S. forces. “There’s a long track record of us using force to try to weaken and push back against Iran and its allies in the region, and it has almost never worked,” he stated. Vaez added that even when the U.S. had a much larger military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, both neighboring Iran, Iran was still able to provide explosive devices and expertise to its proxies.
“If the attack occurs outside of Iranian territory, it aligns with the type of cost that Iran is willing to bear for the ongoing confrontation with the U.S. over the decades,” he remarked. “It knows that it’s the cost of doing business.” However, he warned that any counterattack that destroys Iranian assets or kills Iranian-backed militia fighters could lead to a retaliatory response, potentially drawing the U.S. deeper into the region.
On Friday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated that his country would not instigate a war but would “respond strongly” to anyone attempting to bully it. Ali emphasized that Iran could not afford to back off in the event of an attack, as doing so would signal weakness and invite more aggressive action from Israel and the United States.
“Both sides are swiftly escalating the situation,” he added. “And they are vulnerable to a single mistake or miscalculation that could result in tensions spiraling out of control.”Keir Simmons and Mo Abbas filed the report from Erbil, while Khalid Razak reported from Baghdad. Keir Simmons is the chief international correspondent for NBC News, based in London. Mo Abbas is a London-based multimedia producer for NBC News. Khalid Razak is a producer for NBC News based in Baghdad.
