The current political climate feels similar to the state of affairs in 2016, where the opposition to Donald J. Trump was deeply divided, making it easy for him to win the Republican primaries. Now, with the entry of Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Tim Scott, and Nikki Haley into the field of candidates, people are worried that the Trump opposition may become divided again. However, the opposition to Mr. Trump has been far more unified so far this time around. Republican polls have consistently shown Ron DeSantis with the support of most Republican voters who don’t support Trump. Despite Mr. DeSantis’s drop in support, his share of not-Trump voters has remained steady. It’s possible that the other not-Trump candidates have lost support to Trump.
Mr. DeSantis’s share of not-Trump voters may change if another candidate gains support in upcoming polls. Candidates like Mr. Pence and Mr. Christie could challenge Mr. DeSantis by capitalizing on his vulnerabilities. Mr. Pence might run as an anti-abortion candidate, gaining socially conservative evangelical Iowa caucusgoers, and Mr. Christie could run as an anti-Trump candidate, channeling relatively moderate voters’ opposition to the former president. However, both candidates enter the race with poor favorability ratings. Mr. DeSantis remains the only plausible challenger to Mr. Trump so far.
Mr. DeSantis’s most significant challenge is Mr. Trump himself, who is stronger now than he was in 2015-2016 after eight years leading the Republican Party. Mr. Trump is currently a formidable primary candidate, even in a one-on-one race with Mr. DeSantis and without any other candidates in the fray. In conclusion, it’s not yet 2016, but the situation bears some resemblance.
