A defunct European satellite is set to enter the Earth’s atmosphere and descend towards the ground in the coming weeks. Launched in 1995, the European Remote Sensing 2 (ERS-2) satellite was retired over ten years ago and has since depleted its fuel reserves. According to a statement from the European Space Agency (ESA), the reentry is expected to occur around mid-February. Despite having no fuel, the massive Earth observatory still weighs over 5,000 pounds and poses a potential threat if it were to crash into a populated area.
The ESA has highlighted that the annual risk of an individual being injured by space debris is less than 1 in 100 billion, making it far less likely than being struck by lightning.
Cases of larger objects descending uncontrollably from orbit have been observed, such as the core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket, which weighed 23 tons when it reentered the atmosphere in 2022. NASA has criticized China for allowing massive rocket parts to descend uncontrolled. The risks associated with uncontrolled rockets are real, as evidenced by recent videos showing rocket boosters from a Chinese Long March 3B rocket tumbling uncontrollably towards an inhabited area, causing massive fireballs.
It is currently impossible to predict the exact location of the satellite’s reentry. The ESA is monitoring the satellite’s orbital altitude as it decays, but due to the natural reentry, the exact time and location of the satellite’s burn-up cannot be determined.
In addition to its role as space debris, the ERS-2 satellite has gathered extensive data on Earth’s polar ice, changing land surfaces, sea-level rise, warming oceans, and atmospheric chemistry. It has also been instrumental during natural disasters.
Despite the uncontrolled descent, the satellite’s eventual plummet is still preferable to it posing a threat to space explorers in the future. Earth’s orbit is already crowded with space debris, and this issue is expected to worsen with the launch of more rockets and the decommissioning of satellites.
For more on reentries: NASA Terrified of Space Station Careening Out of Control and Crashing Into People.
