There has been increasing speculation about the health condition of Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, following claims in Ukrainian media that he is in a coma or even dead.
Kadyrov, who has ruled Chechnya for 15 years, is known for his brutality both within the region and towards civilians in Ukraine. In October 2022, he was promoted to the rank of Colonel General in the Russian military, making him a loyal ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
If Kadyrov were to die, it would have significant consequences for the Kremlin. So how much truth is there to these rumors?
Is Kadyrov in poor health?
Commentators often analyze Kadyrov’s appearance to speculate about his health. His face can look swollen, his eyes squint, and his speech is at times slurred and incomprehensible. He also appears to undergo fluctuations in weight.
While these observations do not necessarily indicate health issues, sources within Kadyrov’s inner circle have told the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta that he suffers from an undisclosed “serious disease” that has a 30% fatality rate. Other reports suggest that he has kidney problems and regularly travels to Moscow for dialysis treatment.
Kadyrov himself has repeatedly denied and ridiculed claims about his poor health. In March, he dismissed reports of kidney problems, stating that he was “healthy and full of energy.” He also explained that a device on his finger, which was speculated to be a health monitor, was actually a prayer counter.
The Kremlin has stated that it has no information about Kadyrov’s health. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “The presidential administration can hardly issue health certificates. Therefore, we have nothing to say on this matter.”
How did the rumors spread?
The American news website The Daily Beast attributed the news to the Ukrainian website Obozrevatel, which claimed to have received an exclusive comment from Andriy Yusov, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) spokesperson, stating that Kadyrov’s condition had worsened and he was in a “serious condition.” However, the GUR has not publicly confirmed Obozrevatel’s report.
Obozrevatel further claimed that its sources in the Chechen diaspora reported that Kadyrov had been in a coma for several days following a failed kidney transplant. BBC Russian noted that this phrase is typically used by Chechens in Europe, who would not have access to such information.
The rumors gained more traction when Chechen opposition activist Abubakar Yangulbaev posted on his Telegram channel that Kadyrov had died, without providing further explanation.
Various claims about Kadyrov’s health have been amplified on social media, especially through Telegram channels such as Nexta, as well as figures like Anton Geranshchenko, a former Ukrainian Deputy Interior Minister, who has a large following on X (formerly Twitter).
Are the reports credible?
Not only has the Ukrainian intelligence service not publicly supported Obozrevatel’s statement, but the news outlet itself has amended its original report. Without knowing the specifics of the original report, it is difficult to ascertain their claims.
There is also conflicting information within Chechen opposition groups on Telegram regarding Kadyrov’s health. Claims about his whereabouts or data from planes associated with him often contradict one another. While the NIYSO channel insists that he is in a coma, 1ADAT maintains that he is not.
Alexei Venedikov, a former editor-in-chief of Ekho Moskvy, who has also written about Kadyrov’s kidney failure, states that there has been no confirmation of Kadyrov’s return from his annual leave, which began on July 3. However, conflicting claims from 1ADAT suggest that Kadyrov has approved Chechen legislation, which he would not have been able to do if he were in a coma.
Rumors and speculation surrounding Kadyrov’s inner circle are not uncommon. Before the reports about his health emerged, the Telegram channel VChK-OGPU claimed that Kadyrov had buried his doctor, Elkhan Suleymanov, alive as a punishment for failing to cure his health issues and allegedly poisoning him. These claims were subsequently picked up and circulated by international media.
However, Suleymanov later gave an interview to Azerbaijani media in which he addressed his absence from the public eye and stated that everything was fine.
What has Kadyrov said?
Two days after Obozrevatel’s report, Kadyrov’s Telegram account shared two undated videos. The first video showed him walking in the rain on the grounds of his palace in central Grozny, as determined by geolocation. Although Kadyrov did not discuss his health in the video, the caption encouraged people who struggle to discern truth from lies on the internet to go for a walk, breathe fresh air, and clear their thoughts, noting that rain can be invigorating.
The Chechen opposition Telegram channel NIYSO argued that the video was pre-recorded and released to give the impression that Kadyrov was in good health. However, the weather in Grozny over the weekend corresponded to the rainy and overcast conditions in the video.
What if he dies?
If Kadyrov were to die, it would be unlikely for the Kremlin to be able to conceal it. Muslim traditions necessitate the swift burial of a body, ideally within three days at most.
Caucasus analyst Harold Chambers stated that Kadyrov’s funeral would be a significant event. Chambers remarked, “They can try to impose a media blackout, but they attempted that during his son’s wedding in March, and a video still leaked.”
Chambers believes that Kadyrov’s eldest son, Akhmat, would assume control after his father’s death. However, since Akhmat is only 17 years old, another official would be needed to govern until he reaches the minimum age of 21. There is also the possibility of leadership challenges from other members of Kadyrov’s family, including the mayor of Grozny.
The Washington-based think tank, Institute for the Study of War, wrote that the destabilization of Chechnya would be a “major blow” to the Kremlin’s authority. Kadyrov played a crucial role in pacifying the republic after a decade of separatist wars, which helped solidify Putin’s popularity at the beginning of his presidency.
Journalist Mikhail Fishman suggests that a power struggle in Chechnya would mirror the competition within the Kremlin and would reflect the future that Russia is likely to face.
