Actual gross home product (GDP) greater at an annual fee of three.2 p.c within the fourth quarter of 2023 (desk 1), in step with the “2nd” estimate launched via the Bureau of Financial Research. Within the 0.33 quarter, actual GDP greater 4.9 p.c.
The GDP estimate launched these days is according to extra entire supply knowledge than had been to be had for the “advance” estimate issued ultimate month. Within the advance estimate, the rise in actual GDP was once 3.3 p.c. The replace basically mirrored a downward revision to non-public stock funding that was once in part offset via upward revisions to state and native govt spending and shopper spending (discuss with “Updates to GDP”).
The rise in actual GDP mirrored will increase in shopper spending, exports, state and native govt spending, nonresidential mounted funding, federal govt spending, and home mounted funding that had been in part offset via a lower in non-public stock funding. Imports, which might be a subtraction within the calculation of GDP, greater (desk 2).
In comparison to the 0.33 quarter of 2023, the deceleration in actual GDP within the fourth quarter basically mirrored a downturn in non-public stock funding and slowdowns in federal govt spending, residential mounted funding, and shopper spending. Imports decelerated.
Present‑greenback GDP greater 4.9 p.c at an annual fee, or $334.5 billion, within the fourth quarter to a degree of $27.94 trillion, an upward revision of $5.8 billion from the former estimate (tables 1 and three). Additional info at the supply knowledge that underlie the estimates is to be had within the “Key Supply Information and Assumptions” report on BEA’s website online.
The cost index for gross home purchases greater 1.9 p.c within the fourth quarter, the similar as within the earlier estimate. The non-public intake expenditures (PCE) value index greater 1.8 p.c, an upward revision of 0.1 share level. Aside from meals and effort costs, the PCE value index greater 2.1 p.c, an upward revision of 0.1 share level.
Private Source of revenue
Present-dollar non-public source of revenue greater $219.5 billion within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $5.4 billion from the former estimate. The rise basically mirrored will increase in repayment, non-public source of revenue receipts on belongings, and proprietors’ source of revenue that had been in part offset via a lower in non-public present switch receipts (desk 8).
Disposable non-public source of revenue greater $202.5 billion, or 4.0 p.c, within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $9.2 billion from the former estimate. Actual disposable non-public source of revenue greater 2.2 p.c, a downward revision of 0.3 share level.
Private saving was once $809.2 billion within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $22.4 billion from the former estimate. The non-public saving fee—non-public saving as a share of disposable non-public source of revenue—was once 3.9 p.c within the fourth quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 share level.
Updates to GDP
With the second one estimate, downward revisions to non-public stock funding and federal govt spending had been in part offset via upward revisions to state and native govt spending, shopper spending, residential mounted funding, nonresidential mounted funding, and exports. Imports had been revised up. For more info, discuss with the Technical Be aware. For info on updates to GDP, discuss with the “Further Knowledge” phase that follows.
Advance Estimate
2d Estimate
(P.c trade from previous quarter)
Actual GDP
3.3
3.2
Present-dollar GDP
4.8
4.9
Actual GDI
…
…
Moderate of Actual GDP and Actual GDI
…
…
Gross home purchases value index
1.9
1.9
PCE value index
1.7
1.8
PCE value index except for meals and effort
2.0
2.1
Updates to 3rd-Quarter Wages and Salaries
Along with presenting up to date estimates for the fourth quarter, these days’s unlock items revised estimates of third-quarter wages and salaries, non-public taxes, and contributions for presidency social insurance coverage, according to up to date knowledge from the Bureau of Hard work Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Wages and salaries are actually estimated to have greater $184.2 billion within the 0.33 quarter, an upward revision of $23.0 billion. Private present taxes are actually estimated to have greater $61.5 billion, an upward revision of $8.9 billion. Contributions for presidency social insurance coverage are actually estimated to have greater $23.2 billion, an upward revision of $3.0 billion. With the incorporation of those new knowledge, actual gross home source of revenue is now estimated to have greater 1.9 p.c within the 0.33 quarter, an upward revision of 0.4 share level from the prior to now revealed estimate.
GDP for 2023
Actual GDP greater 2.5 p.c in 2023 (from the 2022 annual stage to the 2023 annual stage), when compared with an build up of one.9 p.c in 2022 (desk 1). The rise in actual GDP in 2023 basically mirrored will increase in shopper spending, nonresidential mounted funding, state and native govt spending, exports, and federal govt spending that had been in part offset via decreases in residential mounted funding and personal stock funding. Imports lowered (desk 2).
Present-dollar GDP greater 6.3 p.c, or $1.61 trillion, in 2023 to a degree of $27.36 trillion, when compared with an build up of 9.1 p.c, or $2.15 trillion, in 2022 (tables 1 and three).
The cost index for gross home purchases greater 3.4 p.c in 2023, when compared with an build up of 6.8 p.c in 2022 (desk 4). The PCE value index greater 3.7 p.c, when compared with an build up of 6.5 p.c. Aside from meals and effort costs, the PCE value index greater 4.1 p.c, when compared with an build up of five.2 p.c.
Measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, actual GDP greater 3.1 p.c all through the length (desk 5), when compared with an build up of 0.7 p.c from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022.
The cost index for gross home purchases, as measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, greater 2.4 p.c, when compared with an build up of 6.2 p.c from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The PCE value index greater 2.8 p.c, when compared with an build up of five.9 p.c from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Aside from meals and effort, the PCE value index greater 3.2 p.c, when compared with an build up of five.1 p.c.
Advance Estimate
2d Estimate
(P.c trade from 2022 annual stage to 2023 annual stage)
Actual GDP
2.5
2.5
Present-dollar GDP
6.3
6.3
Gross home purchases value index
3.4
3.4
PCE value index
3.7
3.7
PCE value index except for meals and effort
4.1
4.1
(P.c trade from fourth quarter 2022 to fourth quarter 2023)
Actual GDP
3.1
3.1
Gross home purchases value index
2.4
2.4
PCE value index
2.7
2.8
PCE value index except for meals and effort
3.2
3.2
* * *
Subsequent unlock, March 28, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross Home Product (3rd Estimate)
Company Income
Gross Home Product via Trade
Fourth Quarter 2023 and Yr 2023
