Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Review, November 15, 2024
Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Karolina Hird, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and George Barros
November 15, 2024, 7:00pm ET
Click on right here to look ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day-to-day along the static maps provide on this record.
Click on right here to look ISW’s three-D management of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a pc (no longer a cell tool) is strongly advisable for the usage of this data-heavy instrument.
Click on right here to get admission to ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those maps supplement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces day-to-day through appearing a dynamic frontline. ISW will replace this time-lapse map archive per thirty days.
Word: The knowledge cut-off for this product used to be 12:30pm ET on November 15. ISW will duvet next reviews within the November 16 Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Review.
The Kremlin is intensifying its reflexive management marketing campaign geared toward influencing Western decision-making in Russia’s choose forward of or in lieu of conceivable long run negotiations concerning the solution of the battle in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone name with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on November 15 and reiterated a number of Kremlin knowledge operations geared toward influencing the German executive and different Western states to drive Ukraine into untimely peace negotiations as a substitute of offering Ukraine with additional army enhance.[1] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky referred to as the Scholz-Putin name “Pandora’s field” and warned that the decision is helping Putin reach his key objectives: lowering his isolation within the world neighborhood and bringing about negotiations on Russia’s most popular phrases “that may result in not anything.”[2]
Putin and different senior Russian officers have lately intensified rhetoric geared toward influencing the overseas coverage of the incoming US executive below President-elect Donald Trump.[3] The Kremlin has additionally lately reiterated its unwillingness to compromise at the phrases of any conceivable long run negotiations whilst strongly indicating that the Kremlin’s longstanding function of whole Ukrainian capitulation stays unchanged.[4] The Kremlin most likely targets to benefit from uncertainty concerning the long run US coverage referring to Ukraine through intensifying its reflexive management marketing campaign towards Ukraine’s Ecu allies.[5] Senior Russian officers, together with Safety Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Protection Minister Andrei Belousov, have particularly used telephone calls with Western political and protection officers to unfold Kremlin knowledge operations and try to threaten the West into making untimely concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity since 2022.[6]
Abkhazian oppositionists protested an settlement between the de facto executive of Georgia’s Abkhazia area with Russia geared toward improving Russian traders’ rights in Abkhazia on November 15. Protesters in Abkhazia stormed the de facto parliament of the Russian-occupied and Kremlin-backed separatist area of Georgia, hard the dismissal of a proposed funding settlement with Russia that will grant Russian prison entities belongings possession rights in Abkhazia and Russian builders preferential tax exemptions.[7] Critics of the proposed law argued that the deal would inflate belongings costs, empower oligarchs, and undermine Abkhazia’s desired autonomy.[8] The protesters, waving Russian flags, clarified their discontent used to be no longer directed at “fraternal” Russia however on the present Abkhaz executive, bringing up the desire to give protection to Abkhazia’s “nationwide pursuits.”[9] The protesters also referred to as for the resignation of the present de facto Abkhazian President Aslan Bzhania.[10] The protests pressured the Abkhaz parliament to put off the vote at the settlement, with opposition leaders later pronouncing plans to provide their calls for to the present de facto Abkhaz management.[11]
Russian Ministry of Overseas Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova recommended Russians to steer clear of commute to Abkhazia, bringing up protection considerations, and warned that the disaster may deter long run financial investments in Abkhazia.[12] The Russian knowledge area reacted through calling the protesters ungrateful, and a few milbloggers attributed the protests to exterior actors together with Turkey, whilst others warned that the Abkhaz financial system in large part is dependent upon Russia.[13]
Ukraine’s Western companions proceed to offer Ukraine with army enhance by means of quite a lot of approach and platforms. French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu reported on November 14 that the Ukrainian “Anna Kyivska” Brigade has finished its coaching in France.[14] The Anna Kyivska Brigade is particularly the primary Ukrainian brigade that finished coaching in France and which France supplied as a part of the Ecu Union Army Help Venture (EUMAM) in enhance of Ukraine.[15] Ukrainian Protection Minister Rustem Umerov famous that France has supplied Ukraine with common and specialised army coaching and “cutting-edge” apparatus and guns, together with armored body of workers carriers (APCs), self-propelled artillery programs, and situational consciousness programs.[16]
Umerov additionally met with Norwegian High Minister Jonas Ghar Støre and Norwegian Protection Minister Björn Arild Gram in Oslo on November 15, throughout which Norway introduced it will sign up for the “Danish structure” of offering enhance for Ukraine by means of financing the home manufacturing of Ukrainian guns and kit.[17] Umerov, Gram, and Støre additionally mentioned the advent of a “Norwegian structure” that would offer exterior funding in Ukrainian protection generation corporations.[18]
US Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said throughout a press briefing on November 15 that the USA stays dedicated to disbursing round $7.1 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) help to Ukraine ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.[19] Singh famous that the Pentagon plans to ship army help applications to Ukraine on an “nearly weekly” foundation till the inauguration.
Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin is intensifying its reflexive management marketing campaign geared toward influencing Western decision-making in Russia’s choose forward of or in lieu of conceivable long run negotiations concerning the solution of the battle in Ukraine.
Abkhazian oppositionists protested an settlement between the de facto executive of Georgia’s Abkhazia area with Russia geared toward improving Russian traders’ rights in Abkhazia on November 15.
Ukraine’s Western companions proceed to offer Ukraine with army enhance by means of quite a lot of approach and platforms.
Ukrainian forces lately complicated in Kursk Oblast and close to Kurakhove, and Russian forces lately complicated close to Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.
The Kremlin continues efforts to amplify its “Time of Heroes” program to create a brand new social magnificence made out of veterans dependable to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime and beliefs.
We don’t record intimately on Russian battle crimes as a result of those actions are well-covered in Western media and do indirectly have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We will be able to proceed to judge and record at the results of those felony actions at the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and particularly on battle in Ukrainian city spaces. We totally condemn Russian violations of the rules of armed warfare and the Geneva Conventions and crimes towards humanity even if we don’t describe them in those reviews.
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian Major Effort – Japanese Ukraine (made out of 3 subordinate major efforts)
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces again from the world border with Belgorod Oblast and option to inside of tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #2 – Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #3 – Seize the whole thing of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign
Russian Mobilization and Drive Era Efforts
Russian Technological Diversifications
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces
Important Process in Belarus
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Ukrainian forces lately complicated southeast of Korenevo amid endured preventing alongside the primary Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on November 15. Geolocated photos revealed on November 15 presentations that Ukrainian forces lately marginally complicated inside of japanese Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo).[20] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complicated in forests close to Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha), Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha), and Olgovka (east of Korenevo), and any other milblogger claimed that inclement climate is slowing each Ukrainian and Russian operations within the house.[21] Russian forces endured assaults alongside the primary Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, together with close to Darino (southeast of Korenevo), on November 14 and 15.[22] Components of the Russian 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Department) are reportedly working close to Darino, drone operators of the Russian “Alabiya” Workforce are reportedly working in Sudzhansky Raion, and components of the Russian 56th VDV Regiment (seventh VDV Department) are reportedly working in Kursk Oblast.[23]
Ukrainian forces carried out a strike reportedly focused on the Krymsky Airfield in Krasnodar Krai in a single day on November 14 to fifteen, regardless that the wear from the strike is unclear.[24] Geolocated photos revealed at the night of November 14 presentations an explosion within the route of Krymsk Airbase, which is reportedly the bottom of the Russian third Mixed Aviation Regiment (4th Air Drive and Air Protection Military).[25] Krasnodar Krai government claimed that Russian forces intercepted 46 Ukrainian drones over Krasnodar Krai and that Ukrainian drones broken residential spaces in Krymsk and Krasnoarmeysk raions, and a Russian milblogger charactered the strike as the most important Ukrainian strike towards Krasnodar Krai because the get started of the full-scale invasion.[26]
Russian Major Effort – Japanese Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian goal: Push Ukrainian forces again from the world border with Belgorod Oblast and option to inside of tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town)
A most likely Russian sabotage and reconnaissance staff carried out a restricted incursion around the world border into Chernihiv Oblast on November 15, however there are recently no indications that Russian forces have established a long lasting presence within the house. Geolocated photos revealed on November 15 presentations two Russian infantrymen strolling alongside the japanese facet of a broken bridge around the Sudost River connecting Hremyach and Kolos (each about 1.5 kilometers south of the world border), planting a Russian flag at the bridge, and returning to the japanese facet of the bridge.[27] A Russian milblogger revealed photos of an extra Russian flag flying on an deserted development allegedly in Muravi (east of Hremyach and Kolos), however the photos does no longer display Russian infantry within the house.[28] Russian milbloggers extensively claimed that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance teams crossed the border and entered or seized Hremyach, Kolos, Novoselydivka (straight away east of Kolos and west of Muravi), and Muravi.[29] ISW is not able to verify those claims and has no longer seen proof indicating that Russian infantrymen handle positions within the border house. Ukrainian State Border Provider Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko and Ukrainian Heart for Countering Disinformation Spokesperson Andriy Kovalenko said that Russian forces best in short crossed into Chernihiv Oblast to plant the Russian flags after which withdrew and that the Russian claims of advance and seizing settlements are false and are a part of a knowledge operation.[30] Demchenko said that the border house the place Russian forces planted the flag is bring to a halt from the remainder of Chernihiv Oblast through the river and that the settlements that Russian forces supposedly seized are deserted.[31]
Russian forces endured restricted offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on November 14 and 15 however didn’t advance. Russian forces endured offensive operations north of Kharkiv Town inside of and close to Vysoka Yaruha, Lyptsi, and Hlyboke and northeast of Kharkiv Town close to Tykhe, Starytsya, and Vovchansk.[32] A consultant of a Ukrainian brigade working within the Kharkiv route reported on November 14 and 15 that Russian forces north of Kharkiv Town aren’t concentrating important forces or mechanized apparatus at scale in frontline spaces because of snow and deficient climate prerequisites.[33] The consultant additional famous that Russian forces’ techniques within the northern Kharkiv house of operations have no longer modified and that Russian forces proceed to habits attacks in small infantry teams with out automobile enhance. Ukrainian “Kharkiv” Workforce of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Yevheniy Romanov said that small Russian infantry teams within the Kharkiv house of operations resumed engaging in assaults with tank and armored automobile enhance round November 13, then again.[34] Romanov said on November 14 that Russian forces proceed attacking close to Vovchansk, Starytsya, and Lyptsi most likely to be able to reestablish tube artillery firing positions in a position to shelling Kharkiv Town and reopening get admission to to roads that might facilitate long run Russian advances towards Kharkiv Town.[35]
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and northerly Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces made additional advances into Kupyansk amid endured offensive operations alongside the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on November 14 and 15. Geolocated photos revealed on November 15 signifies that Russian forces lately complicated southward to Dzerzhynskoho Side road in japanese Kupyansk.[36] Russian assets claimed on November 14 and 15 that Russian forces won a foothold at the outskirts of Kupyansk and are organising logistics networks within the house to allow long run offensive operations within the town, which is in step with to be had geolocated photos.[37] Russian milbloggers claimed on November 14 and 15 that Russian forces are engaged in lively battle with Ukrainian forces close to the sugar manufacturing facility and business zone in japanese Kupyansk.[38] A Ukrainian soldier working within the Kupyansk route said on November 14 that Ukrainian forces had been in a position to carry the protection of Kupyansk all through June and July 2024 however that the placement changed into tougher within the fall as small teams of 1 to 2 Russian infantrymen pierced deep at the back of Ukrainian defensive strains.[39] Russian milbloggers claimed on November 14 that Russian forces lately applied “new” techniques of their assault on Kupyansk and assaulted Ukrainian forces in small armored teams with 5 to 10 accompanying infantry.[40] One milblogger added that Russian forces complicated into Kupyansk alongside a railroad line and are proceeding makes an attempt to advance within the house. Additional Russian advances into central and western Kupyansk coupled with fresh Russian advances southwest of Kupyansk close to Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka may pressure Ukrainian forces to withdraw from positions inside of Kupyansk and from the present Ukrainian salient east and southeast of town.
Russian forces endured offensive operations somewhere else alongside the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on November 14 and 15. Russian assets claimed on November 15 that Russian forces complicated west of Karmazynivka (southwest of Svatove) and are exerting hearth management over just about 10 kilometers of territory west of Stelmakhivka (northwest of Svatove), despite the fact that ISW has no longer but seen affirmation of those claims.[41] The Ukrainian Basic Body of workers reported on November 14 and 15 that Russian forces endured offensive operations north of Kupyansk close to Holubivka; east of Kupyansk close to Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk close to Hlushkivka, Pishchane Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozova; and west of Svatove close to Zeleny Hai, Kopanky, Pershotravneve, and Nadiya; southwest of Svatove close to Novoyehorivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Katerynivka; and northwest of Kreminna close to Nevske and Terny; and west of Kreminna close to Torske.[42]
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize the whole thing of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces endured offensive operations east of Siversk close to Verkhnokamyanske on November 14 and 15 however didn’t advance.[43] Components of the Russian second Artillery Brigade (third Mixed Hands Military [CAA], previously the second Luhansk Other folks’s Republic (LNR] Military Corps [AC]) reportedly proceed to function within the Siversk route.[44]
Russian forces endured offensive operations south of Chasiv Yar close to Predtechyne on November 14 and 15 however didn’t advance.[45] The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade working within the Chasiv Yar route said on November 15 that Russian infantry engaging in attacks within the Chasiv Yar route are making an attempt to make use of particular raincoats and blankets to cover their thermal signatures from Ukrainian drones and thermal imagers.[46] The spokesperson said that Russian forces are suffering to advance additional west after shooting footholds of the west financial institution of the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal close to Chasiv Yar. Drone operators of the Russian “Okhotnik” (Hunter) Spetsnaz Detachment (51st Mixed Hands Military [CAA], previously the first Donetsk Other folks’s Republic [DNR] AC) reportedly proceed to function close to Chasiv Yar.[47]
Russian forces lately complicated in Toretsk amid endured preventing within the route on November 15. Geolocated photos revealed on November 11 and 15 signifies that Russian forces lately complicated in northeastern and southern Toretsk.[48] Russian forces carried out offensive operations in Toretsk; north of Toretsk close to Dyliivka; and west of Toretsk close to Shcherbynivka on November 14 and 15.[49] Ukrainian Luhansk Workforce of Forces Spokesperson Primary Anastasiya Bobovnikova said on November 14 that Russian forces lately carried out a mechanized attack close to Nelipivka (southwest of Toretsk) and that Ukrainian forces inflicted 12 Russian body of workers casualties and destroyed seven unspecified gentle cars.[50] Components of the Russian ninth Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA,) reportedly proceed working in Toretsk.[51]
Russian forces lately complicated south of Pokrovsk amid endured offensive operations within the Pokrovsk route on November 15. Geolocated photos revealed on November 13 signifies that Russian forces lately marginally complicated in northern Yurivka (south of Pokrovsk and west of Selydove) and west of Novooleksiivka (southwest of Selydove).[52] A Ukrainian army observer said that Russian forces lately seized positions in northern Petrivka and Hryhorivka (each west of Selydove).[53] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces complicated as much as 1.3 kilometers intensive west of Novooleksiivka and complicated alongside Zheleznodorozhna Side road and close to the railway line in Petrivka, however ISW has no longer seen affirmation of this declare.[54] Russian forces endured attacks east of Pokrovsk close to Myrolyubivka and Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk close to Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar; and south of Pokrovsk close to Petrivka, Pushkine, Pustynka, and Zhovte on November 14 and 15.[55]
Ukrainian forces lately complicated southeast of Kurakhove, and Russian forces lately marginally complicated northeast of Kurakhove. Geolocated photos revealed on November 14 signifies that Ukrainian forces lately complicated west of Pobieda (southwest of Kurakhove) into the rear of Russian forces recently making an attempt to advance close to Dalne (south of Kurakhove).[56] Further geolocated photos revealed on November 15 signifies that Russian forces lately marginally complicated in northern Novoselydivka (north of Kurakhove).[57] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces cleared a space two kilometers extensive and as much as 1.5 kilometers intensive between Sontsivka and Novoselydivka (each northeast to north of Kurakhove and the Kurakhivske Reservoir) and that Russian forces complicated 350 meters intensive east of Berestky and 600 meters intensive north of Illinka (each north of Kurakhove and alongside the northern financial institution of the Kurakhivske Reservoir) and in Kurakhove itself.[58] Russian milbloggers additionally claimed that Russian forces seized Dalne (south of Kurakhove) and complicated southwest of the agreement.[59] ISW has no longer seen affirmation of those claims, then again. The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Stepanivka (north of Kurakhove) as of November 15, despite the fact that ISW assessed that Russian forces seized the agreement as of November 6.[60] Russian forces endured attacks northeast of Kurakhove close to Novodmytrivka, Zorya, Voznesenka, and Sontsivka; north of Kurakhove close to Novoselydivka, Novo Illinka, and Berestky; east of Kurakhove close to Maksymilyanivka; and south of Kurakhove close to Dalne on November 14 and 15.[61] Components of the Russian thirty third Motorized Rifle Regiment (twentieth Motorized Rifle Department, eighth CAA, Southern Army District [SMD]) are reportedly working within the Kurakhove route.[62]
Russian forces lately complicated within the Vuhledar route amid endured preventing on November 15. Geolocated photos revealed on November 14 signifies that Russian forces lately complicated in northwestern Antonivka (northeast of Vuhledar) and most likely seized all the agreement.[63] A Russian milblogger claimed that components of the Russian twentieth Motorized Rifle Department (eighth CAA, SMD) participated within the seizure of Antonivka.[64] A Russian milblogger claimed on November 14 that Russian forces complicated north of Maksymivka (northeast of Vuhledar), however ISW has no longer seen visible affirmation of this declare.[65] Russian forces endured attacking northeast of Vuheldar close to Antonivka and Kostyantynivka and northwest of Vuhledar close to Yantarne, Kostyantynopolske, and Trudove on November 14 and 15.[66] Components of the Russian “Aleppo” drone detachment of the 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (68th Military Corps [AC], Japanese Army District [EMD]) are reportedly working within the Vuhledar route; the Russian fifth Tank Brigade (thirty sixth Mixed Hands Military [CAA], EMD) close to Prechystivka (west of Vuhledar); and the Russian second Motorized Rifle Battalion of the thirty ninth Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, EMD) close to Yelizavetivka (northeast of Vuhledar).[67]
Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border house on November 15 however didn’t advance. Russian milbloggers claimed on November 14 that Russian forces complicated 3 kilometers within the route of Novodarivka and complicated north of Rivnopil (each southwest of Velyka Novosilka), however ISW has no longer seen affirmation of those claims.[68] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are making an attempt to advance on Velyka Novosilka from the east, south, and southwest with a purpose to get rid of the Ukrainian salient on this house, which is in step with ISW’s fresh overview that Russian forces might try to leverage advances northwest of Vuhledar to drive Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilka.[69] Russian forces attacked south of Velyka Novosilka close to Makarivka and southwest of Velyka Novosilka close to Novodarivka and Rivnopil on November 14 and 15.[70]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian goal: Care for frontline positions and safe rear spaces towards Ukrainian moves)
Russian forces endured attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast north of Robotyne close to Novodanylivka on November 14 and 15.[71] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces higher the pace of moves towards Ukrainian pressure concentrations and defensive positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast in preparation for a conceivable Russian offensive operation within the close to long run.[72] ISW has nonetheless no longer independently seen affirmation that Russian forces have redeployed forces to the Zaporizhia route from different spaces of the frontline, nor different signs suggesting an coming near near Russian offensive in Zaporizhia Oblast.[73] Components of the Russian 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment (nineteenth Motorized Rifle Department, 58th Mixed Hands Military [CAA], Southern Army District [SMD]) reportedly proceed to function in Zaporizhia Oblast.[74]
The Russian Ministry of Overseas Affairs (MFA) expressed outrage in accordance with a November 13 interview between the Global Atomic Power Company (IAEA) Director Basic Rafael Mariano Grossi and German information company Deutsche Presse-Agentur discussing the location of IAEA representatives on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant (ZNPP). The Russian MFA claimed on November 14 that IAEA Director Basic Rafael Mariano Grossi made “unacceptable statements” about IAEA representatives ultimate on the ZNPP till a conceivable freeze of the battle in Ukraine and stressed out that best the Russian executive can authorize IAEA representatives to seek advice from the ZNPP.[75] Russia has illegally occupied the ZNPP since March 2022.
Positional preventing endured within the Dnipro route in east (left) financial institution Kherson Oblast on November 14 and 15, however there have been no showed adjustments to the frontline.[76] Drone operators of the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade (forty ninth CAA, SMD) are reportedly working within the Kherson route.[77] Components of the Russian 61st Naval Infantry Brigade (Leningrad Army District [LMD], previously Northern Fleet) are reportedly working at the islands of the Dnipro River Delta.[78] Ukrainian army observer Kostyantyn Mashovets famous on October 30 that Russia transferred unspecified components of the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade to the Pokrovsk route, suggesting that components of the brigade at the moment are break up between no less than two sectors of the entrance.[79]
Ukrainian naval drone moves and deficient climate prerequisites are forcing the Russian army to allocate a vital collection of Russian air defenses from different frontline instructions to occupied Crimea with a purpose to protect important infrastructure. Ukrainian Army Spokesperson Captain 3rd Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported on November 15 that Ukrainian naval drone moves on Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels reduced the collection of Russian BSF vessels guarding the Kerch Strait Bridge from between 10 to fourteen in 2023 to 0 in November 2024.[80] Pletenchuk famous that Russian forces are using rotary-wing plane as a substitute of Russian fixed-wing aviation to protect the Kerch Strait Bridge as Russian helicopters can handle the similar velocity as Ukrainian drones and extra simply patrol the realm. Pletenchuk reported on November 14 that deficient climate prerequisites are inflicting Russian forces to depend on aviation as a substitute of Russian BSF vessels to patrol the Black Sea.[81] ISW in the past assessed in June 2024 that sustained Ukrainian moves towards Russian army goals in occupied Crimea had been forcing Russia to dedicate further air protection property to the realm, and apparently that this development has endured because of the drive of Ukrainian naval drone moves and deteriorating climate prerequisites.[82]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign (Russian Function: Goal Ukrainian army and civilian infrastructure within the rear and at the frontline)
Russian forces carried out any other sequence of missile and drone moves towards Ukraine in a single day on November 14 to fifteen. The Ukrainian Air Drive reported that Russian forces introduced two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles at Odesa Oblast from airspace over the Black Sea and 29 Shahed drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai and occupied Crimea in a single day.[83] The Ukrainian Air Drive reported that Ukrainian forces shot down one of the vital Kh-59/69 missiles and 25 drones basically over Odesa Oblast. Ukrainian officers reported that Ukrainian forces additionally downed Shahed drones in Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Ternopil oblasts.[84] Performing Head of the Ukrainian Air Drive Press Place of job Colonel Yuriy Ihnat said that Russian forces best used Shahed drones for the November 14-15 strike and didn’t use any mock drones like in different fresh moves more likely to complicate Ukrainian air defenses.[85] Odesa Oblast officers reported that the Russian moves broken port infrastructure, civilian infrastructure, residential structures, heating programs, and spiritual and academic establishments in Odesa Town.[86]
Russian Mobilization and Drive Era Efforts (Russian goal: Amplify battle energy with out engaging in common mobilization)
The Kremlin continues efforts to amplify its “Time of Heroes” program to create a brand new social magnificence made out of veterans dependable to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime and beliefs. The Time of Heroes Public Council held a gathering on November 14 to talk about increasing instructional programming for make a choice battle veterans, together with organising a 2nd cohort of graduate college grasp scholars to review public management.[87] A Russian supply asserted on November 15 that over 1,000 Russian veterans signed up inside the first few hours of the enrolment duration.[88] A Russian insider supply claimed on November 15 that the initiative has left a favorable influence on Russian government, who at the moment are aiming to scale up and magnify this system on the federal stage and amongst veterans in excellent status with the Kremlin.[89] The supply famous that Russian government’ obvious delight with the Time of Heroes program means that the affect of Kremlin elites who lead this system – particularly First Deputy Head of the Presidential Management Sergei Kiriyenko and Rector of the Russian Presidential Academy of Nationwide Financial system and Public Management Alexei Komissarov – will most likely build up. ISW has in the past assessed that the Kremlin is making an attempt to militarize Russian society and executive and to fill executive positions with pro-Kremlin and pro-war veterans in the course of the Time of Heroes program.[90]
Russian forces proceed to dedicate newly recruited servicemembers with little to no battle coaching to frontline battle. A Russian milblogger amplified a declare on November 15 that an green contract servicemember signed a freelance on October 14 best to die in battle twelve days in a while October 26.[91] The milblogger claimed that deaths on account of expedited coaching at the moment are a not unusual prevalence. Russian forces’ lowered and expedited coaching has contributed to raised attrition charges and brotherly love issues inside the Russian army.[92]
Russian Technological Diversifications (Russian goal: Introduce technological inventions to optimize programs to be used in Ukraine)
Not anything important to record.
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces (Russian goal: Consolidate administrative management of annexed spaces; forcibly combine Ukrainian electorate into Russian sociocultural, financial, army, and governance programs)
ISW isn’t publishing protection of actions in Russian-occupied spaces lately.
Important job in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its army presence in Belarus and additional combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Workforce job in Belarus)
Not anything important to record.
Word: ISW does no longer obtain any categorised subject material from any supply, makes use of best publicly to be had knowledge, and attracts widely on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially to be had satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial records as the root for those reviews. References to all assets used are supplied within the endnotes of each and every replace.
[1] dot de/breg-de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/bundeskanzler-scholz-telefoniert-mit-dem-russischen-praesidenten-putin-2320942; dot ru/occasions/president/information/75588;
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
[7] dot ge/archives/635655; dot org/protesters-storm-abkhazias-parliament-as-anger-over-controversial-investment-law-boils-over/; ;
[8]
[9]
[10]
[11]
[12]
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
[17] dot media/880735-norvegia-profinansue-virobnictvo-ukrainskogo-ozbroenna-ta-tehniki-umerov/; dot com.ua/2024/11/15/norvegiya-profinansuye-vyrobnycztvo-ukrayinskogo-ozbroyennya-ta-tehniky/; dot in.ua/united kingdom/information/norvegiya-profinansuye-vyrobnytstvo-ukrayinskoyi-zbroyi-dlya-zsu/; dot com.ua/2024/11/15/norvegiya-pryyednuyetsya-do-posylenoyi-pidtrymky-oboronnoyi-galuzi-ukrayiny/; dot com.ua/2024/11/15/rustem-umyerov-zustrivsya-z-premyerom-norvegiyi-obgovoryly-potreby-zsu-ta-zmicznennya-ppo-ukrayiny/; dot com.ua/2024/11/14/rustem-umyerov-obgovoryv-posylennya-ukrayinskoyi-ppo-z-ministrom-oborony-norvegiyi/
[18]
[19]
[20] ;
[21]
[22] ;
[23] ; ;
[24]
[25] ;
[26] dot ru/20241115/46-dronov-podavleny-nad-krymskim-rayonom-za-noch-1141872218.html; dot org/a/kupyansk-attack-odesa-kiper-strike-trukhanov/33202942.html; ;
[27]
[28]
[29] ;
[30] dot ua/information/2024/11/15/7484636/ ; dot com.ua/2024/11/15/zagrozy-vtorgnennya-na-chernigivshhynu-nemaye-proryvu-kordonu-ne-bulo-czpd/;
[31] dot ua/information/2024/11/15/7484636/
[32] ; dot com.ua/2024/11/14/vovchansk-staryczya-ta-lypczi-pid-udarom-voroga-na-pivnochi-harkivshhyny-okupanty-vkotre-zaznaly-vtrat/
[33] dot com.ua/2024/11/14/duzhe-shhilno-staly-syly-oborony-nadijno-kontrolyuyut-tankonebezpechni-napryamky-na-pivnochi-harkivshhyny/
[34] .com dot ua/2024/11/14/vovchansk-staryczya-ta-lypczi-pid-udarom-voroga-na-pivnochi-harkivshhyny-okupanty-vkotre-zaznaly-vtrat/
[35] dot com.ua/2024/11/14/vovchansk-staryczya-ta-lypczi-pid-udarom-voroga-na-pivnochi-harkivshhyny-okupanty-vkotre-zaznaly-vtrat/
[36] ; ;
[37] ;
[38] ;
[39]
[40] ;
[41] ;
[42] ; ; ; ; ;
[43] ; ;
[44]
[45] ;
[46] dot com.ua/2024/11/15/ataky-pid-kovdramy-zamist-zombi-shturmiv-vorog-zminyuye-taktyku-u-chasovomu-yaru/
[47]
[48] ;
[49] ; ;
[50] dot com.ua/2024/11/15/miski-boyi-vazhka-i-brudna-robota-shhodnya-v-toreczku-minusuyut-do-sotni-okupantiv/
[51]
[52] ;
[53]
[54] ; ;
[55] ; ; ;
[56]
[57]
[58] ; ; ; ; ;
[59] ; ;
[60] ;
[61] ; ; ;
[62]
[63]
[64]
[65]
[66] ; ;
[67]
[68] ; ; ;
[69]
[70] ; ;
[71]
[72]
[73]
[74]
[75] dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/information/1981661/
[76] ;
[77]
[78]
[79]
[80] dot com.ua/2024/11/15/u-vms-zsu-rozpovily-yak-rosiyany-styaguyut-resursy-dlya-svogo-zahystu-v-okupovanomu-krymu/
[81]
[82]
[83]
[84] dot media/880307-obstril-odesi-nastupnogo-tizna-ukraincam-predstavlat-vnutrisnij-plan-stijkosti-996-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1731650648&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=playstation;
[85] dot com.ua/2024/11/15/vnochi-rf-atakuvala-odesu-same-udarnymy-dronamy-a-ne-imitaczijnymy-bpla-yurij-ignat/
[86] ; dot media/880307-obstril-odesi-nastupnogo-tizna-ukraincam-predstavlat-vnutrisnij-plan-stijkosti-996-den-vijni-onlajn/
[87] dot kremlin.ru/occasions/management/75579;
[88]
[89]
[90]
[91]
[92]
