Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Review, February 3, 2025
Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, and George Barros
February 3, 2025, 7:20pm ET
Click on right here to peer ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day along the static maps provide on this record.
Click on right here to peer ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast.
Click on right here to peer ISW’s three-D management of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a pc (now not a cell software) is strongly really useful for the usage of this data-heavy software.
Click on right here to get entry to ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those maps supplement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces day by day by way of appearing a dynamic frontline. ISW will replace this time-lapse map archive per month.
Word: The information cut-off for this product was once 12pm ET on February 3. ISW will quilt next stories within the February 4 Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Review.
Russian forces persisted to endure excessive losses in January 2025 regardless of a slower charge of advance as when compared with earlier months in overdue 2024. The Ukrainian Ministry of Protection (MoD) reported on February 3 that Russian forces suffered 48,240 casualties – over 3 Russian motorized rifle divisions value of workforce – in January 2025, making January the second-highest month of losses since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.[1] ISW has seen geolocated proof to evaluate that Russian forces received more or less 498 sq. kilometers in January in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, or more or less 16.1 sq. kilometers consistent with day. The to be had figures recommend Russian forces suffered more or less 96 casualties consistent with sq. kilometer of territory seized. The Ukrainian MoD reported that Russian forces suffered 48,670 casualties in December 2024 – their very best per month casualty charge for the reason that get started of Russia’s full-scale invasion – and ISW assessed that Russian forces received a complete of 593 sq. kilometers in December 2024. The more or less 100-square-kilometer lower in seized territory between December 2024 and January 2025, coupled with a an identical per month casualty charge, signifies that Russian forces are taking the similar excessive point of losses regardless of attaining fewer territorial advances within the close to time period. ISW in the past seen that Russian advances slowed from November 2024 to December 2024.[2] ISW in the past assessed that the Russian navy command most probably tolerated report ranges of workforce casualties from September 2024 thru November 2024 to facilitate greater territorial positive aspects, but it surely stays unclear whether or not the Russian navy command can be keen to maintain such casualties if Russian forces’ charge of advance continues to say no as Russian forces are advancing on extra closely defended settlements similar to Pokrovsk.[3]
Ukrainian forces reportedly performed drone moves towards Russian oil and gasoline infrastructure in Volgograd and Astrakhan oblasts at the night time of February 2 to a few. The Ukrainian Normal Team of workers reported that parts of the Ukrainian Safety Carrier (SBU), Particular Operations Forces (SSO), and different Ukrainian forces struck Lukoil’s Volgograd Oil Refinery in Volgograd Town and the Astrakhan Fuel Processing Plant close to Astrakhan Town.[4] The Ukrainian Normal Team of workers reported that the strike broken the principle processing gadgets on the Volgograd refinery and {that a} hearth began on the Astrakhan plant. Ukrainian Heart for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko famous that the Volgograd Oil Refinery is without doubt one of the most sensible ten refineries in Russia and that the Astrakhan Fuel Processing Plant processes gasoline condensate and produces gasoline and diesel gasoline.[5] A supply within the SBU informed Radio Liberty that the Volgograd Oil Refinery processes virtually six % of all Russian oil and that the Astrakhan Fuel Processing Plant processes 12 billion cubic meters of gasoline condensate consistent with yr.[6] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that an worker on the Astrakhan plant mentioned that the strike broken a gasoline condensate processing plant.[7] Volgograd Oblast Governor Andrey Bocharov claimed that Russian forces repelled a large Ukrainian drone strike towards the oblast in a single day and intercepted and neutralized “maximum” of the drones.[8] Bocharov claimed that falling drone particles brought about a fireplace at an oil refinery and non permanent energy outages. Astrakhan Oblast Governor Igor Babushkin claimed that Ukrainian forces tried to behavior a drone strike towards gasoline and effort amenities and {that a} hearth began after a drone fell.[9] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed that Russian forces destroyed 25 drones over Volgograd Oblast and 7 over Astrakhan Oblast.[10] Ukrainian forces in the past struck the Lukoil refinery in Volgograd Town at the night time of January 30 to 31.[11]
Ukrainian forces proceed to innovate with drone operations to care for their technological merit over Russia and produce about battlefield results. Commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Methods Forces Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi mentioned in an interview with Radio Liberty revealed on February 3 that Ukrainian forces are running on creating new applied sciences however aren’t disclosing them for so long as conceivable as a way to care for the technological initiative and save you Russian forces from making their very own analogues.[12] Sukharevskyi reported that the Unmanned Methods Forces performed over 220 moves towards Russian territory in 2024 the usage of over 3,500 guns. Sukharevskyi famous that Ukrainian forces have struck over 15 “Buk-M3” and “Tor” air protection techniques in December 2024 and January 2025 and famous that Ukrainian forces caught a “Buk-M3” 57 kilometers from the frontline in mid-January 2025. Sukharevskyi reported that Ukrainian forces’ use of first-person view (FPV) drones to seek Russian reconnaissance drones has ended in a tenfold lower in Russian reconnaissance drone utilization. Sukharevskyi highlighted Ukraine’s manufacturing of first-person view (FPV) and different drones made fully of Ukrainian-made parts and mentioned that Ukraine is operating to broaden a option to counter Russian forces’ fiber optic cable FPV drones and to provide its personal fiber optic cable drones. Ukrainian Commander-in-Leader Normal Oleksandr Syrskyi mentioned on February 3 that the Ukrainian navy continues to extend the choice of unmanned techniques in formations and gadgets of the Flooring Forces, Airborne Attack Forces, Naval Infantry Corps, and Unmanned Methods Forces.[13] ISW continues to evaluate that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in a technological offense-defense race to evolve and innovate their strike and anti-drone functions and that Ukraine’s talent to box technological diversifications at scale forward of Russian diversifications is the most important for Ukraine’s talent to offset Russia’s quantitative materiel benefits.[14]
The United Countries (UN) Human Rights Tracking Project in Ukraine (HRMMU) expressed worry in regards to the “sharp upward thrust” in stories of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of warfare (POWs). The UN HRMMU reported that it has seen Russian forces execute 79 Ukrainian POWs in 24 separate incidents since overdue August 2024 and that Russian forces carry out lots of the executions as Ukrainian squaddies give up to Russian forces.[15] UN HRRMU Head Danielle Belle reported that the Russian executions “didn’t rise up out of nowhere” as Russian officers have “overtly referred to as for the unwell remedy or even execution” of Ukrainian POWs, and the UN HRRMU recorded no less than 3 incidents of Russian officers making such calls. The UN HRRMU reported that statements to “give no quarter” are violations of humanitarian legislation and a warfare crime, and Belle emphasised that navy commanders and political leaders “should factor transparent and unambiguous orders to verify the security and humane remedy” of all POWs and folks now not taking part in struggle. ISW has in the past assessed that Russian battlefield commanders are both complicit in or enabling their subordinates to execute Ukrainian POWs.[16] Ukrainian Commissioner for Lacking Individuals in Particular Cases Artur Dobroserdov mentioned on February 3 that Ukrainian government are investigating pictures purportedly appearing a beheaded Ukrainian serviceman.[17]
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Leader Normal Oleksandr Syrskyi mentioned on February 3 that Ukraine has began enforcing organizational reforms to transition the Ukrainian Armed Forces right into a “corps constitution.”[18] The usage of corps constructions isn’t fully new for the Ukrainian Armed Forces because the Ukrainian Armed Forces were the usage of corps since 2023. Ukraine shaped the ninth and tenth military corps and restructured its Reserve Corps to the eleventh Military Corps in 2023, and Ukraine is recently forming the 4th Military Corps.[19] Additional restructuring to systematically shape an echelon between Ukraine’s a lot of separate brigades and Ukraine’s quite a lot of operational teams of forces, and the introduction of suitable command body of workers headquarters at this new middleman echelon, would most probably fortify command and management for Ukrainian brigades and assist facilitate more practical operations.
Unspecified actors assassinated Armen Sargsyan, the founding father of the “Arbat” Particular Objective Battalion, who has been thinking about Russia’s hybrid actions and invasions of Ukraine since 2014. Armen Sargsyan, the founding father of the “Arbat” (Armenian Battalion) Particular Objective Battalion (Donetsk Other people’s Republic [DNR] “Pyatnashka” World Volunteer Brigade) this is recently running in Kursk Oblast, died on February 3 after an explosive assault at his condo construction in Moscow Town.[20] Sargsyan based the Arbat Battalion, reportedly on directions from Russia’s Federal Safety Carrier (FSB), in September 2022, and the battalion signed a freelance with the Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) in July 2023.[21] Sargsyan is sought after in Ukraine for organizing violence towards protestors within the 2014 pro-Western Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Safety Carrier (SBU) reported that Sargsyan was once a member of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s internal circle.[22] The SBU used explosives to assassinate Russian Nuclear, Organic, Chemical Protection Forces (NBC) Head Lieutenant Normal Igor Kirillov and his assistant, Primary Ilya Polikarpov, in Moscow in December 2024.[23] Ukrainian officers have now not commented on Sargsyan’s demise, and ISW can’t independently ascertain the accountable actor.
The far-right Russian paramilitary unit “Rusich” Sabotage Attack Reconnaissance Team reacted to Sargsyan’s assassination, claiming that “the Motherland will lose not anything from one lifeless bandit” and that Sargsyan and his “ethnic mafia” best brought about issues for Russia.[24] “Rusich” Team chief Alexei Milchakov — who’s a self-declared Nazi — and Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz commander Apty Alaudinov particularly met in January 2025 following Rusich’s repeated criticisms of Akhmat forces.[25] Alaudinov and Milchakov expressed their give a boost to for every different and advertise a message about Russia’s ethnic range and cohesion. Rusich’s reaction to Sargsyan’s demise, then again, highlights the crowd’s persisted xenophobic and ultranationalist sentiments and calls into query the sincerity of Milchakov’s reconciliation with Alaudinov.
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces persisted to endure excessive losses in January 2025 regardless of a slower charge of advance as when compared with earlier months in overdue 2024.
Ukrainian forces reportedly performed drone moves towards Russian oil and gasoline infrastructure in Volgograd and Astrakhan oblasts at the night time of February 2 to a few.
Ukrainian forces proceed to innovate with drone operations to care for their technological merit over Russia and produce about battlefield results.
The United Countries (UN) Human Rights Tracking Project in Ukraine (HRMMU) expressed worry in regards to the “sharp upward thrust” in stories of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of warfare (POWs).
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Leader Normal Oleksandr Syrskyi mentioned on February 3 that Ukraine has began enforcing organizational reforms to transition the Ukrainian Armed Forces right into a “corps constitution.”
Unspecified actors assassinated Armen Sargsyan, the founding father of the “Arbat” Particular Objective Battalion, who has been thinking about Russia’s hybrid actions and invasions of Ukraine since 2014.
Ukrainian forces lately complicated close to Borova, and Russian forces lately complicated close to Kupyansk, Borova, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and within the Dnipro route.
The Russian govt is increasing the federal “Time of Heroes” program, which targets to put in Kremlin-selected veterans into govt positions, to occupied Ukraine as a part of long-term efforts to combine occupied Ukraine into Russia.
We don’t record intimately on Russian warfare crimes as a result of those actions are well-covered in Western media and do indirectly impact the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We will be able to proceed to guage and record at the results of those legal actions at the Ukrainian navy and the Ukrainian inhabitants and in particular on struggle in Ukrainian city spaces. We totally condemn Russian violations of the rules of armed battle and the Geneva Conventions and crimes towards humanity despite the fact that we don’t describe them in those stories.
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian Major Effort – Jap Ukraine (constituted of 3 subordinate primary efforts)
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces again from the global border with Belgorod Oblast and solution to inside tube artillery fluctuate of Kharkiv Town
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #2 – Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into jap Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #3 – Seize the whole lot of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign
Russian Mobilization and Power Technology Efforts
Russian Technological Variations
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces
Important Job in Belarus
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian forces persisted offensive operations within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on February 3 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian resources claimed that preventing persisted close to Sverdlikovo, Maryevka, Pogrebki (all northwest of Sudzha), and Lebedevka (southeast of Korenevo).[26
Russian-claimed advances: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near Pogrebki and Sverdlikovo, but ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.[27]
Order of Fight: Components of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Department and drone consultants from the Russian Rubicon Heart for Complex Unmanned Applied sciences are reportedly running in Kursk Oblast.[28] Components of the Russian thirty fourth Motorized Rifle Brigade (forty ninth Blended Hands Military [CAA], Southern Army District [SMD]) are reportedly running close to Pogrebki.[29]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned on February 2 that the January 31 Ukrainian strike towards a Russian command put up in Rylsk (northwest of Sudzha) killed dozens of Russian and North Korean officials.[30]
Russian Major Effort – Jap Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian purpose: Push Ukrainian forces again from the global border with Belgorod Oblast and solution to inside tube artillery fluctuate of Kharkiv Town)
Russian forces persisted restricted floor assaults northeast of Kharkiv Town close to Vovchansk and Hatyshche on February 2 and three however didn’t advance.[31] A Russian milblogger claimed on February 2 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Vovchansk and close to Hlyboke (north of Kharkiv Town).[32]
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian purpose: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into jap Kharkiv Oblast and northerly Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces persisted offensive operations within the Kupyansk route on February 3 and made marginal advances. Russian forces additionally persisted floor assaults east of Kupyansk close to Petropavlivka, Pishchane and Stepova Novoselivka on February 2 and three.[33]
Assessed Russian advances: The Ukrainian Normal Team of workers revealed maps on February 3 indicating that Russian forces most probably complicated in fields west of Pershotravneve (east of Kupyansk).[34]
Russian-claimed advances: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces complicated northeast of Kupyansk as much as a kilometer deep close to Topoli (alongside the global border); north, northeast, and south of Zapadne; and 500 meters extensive close to Synkivka.[35] ISW has now not seen affirmation of those claims, then again.
Ukraine’s Khortytsia Team of Forces reported that Russian forces within the Kupyansk route are recently regrouping prior to resuming offensive operations.[36] The commander of a Ukrainian unmanned techniques regiment running within the Kupyansk route mentioned that Russian forces are repeatedly undertaking reconnaissance-in-force missions to hit upon Ukrainian positions and can hearth on Ukrainian forces on the expense of Russian floor forces.[37] The commander mentioned that Russian forces once in a while box armor to extend the rate of offensive operations within the Kupyansk route. The commander reported that Russian tanks with mine trawls lead mechanized columns adopted by way of gentle armored automobiles wearing infantry as a way to delivery the infantry to the frontline as rapid as conceivable. The commander reported that Ukrainian forces repelled 5 Russian mechanized attacks in overdue January 2025 and that Ukrainian forces destroyed more or less 90 % of the Russian armored automobiles.
Russian and Ukrainian forces lately complicated within the Borova route amid persisted Russian offensive operations on February 3. Russian forces performed floor assaults northeast of Borova close to Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, and Lozova; east of Borova close to Novoyehorivka; and southeast of Borova close to Makiivka and Novolyubivka on February 2 and three.[38]
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated photos revealed on February 2 and three signifies that Ukrainian forces lately complicated in central Zahryzove.[39]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos revealed on February 3 signifies that Russian forces lately complicated in jap Zahryzove.[40] The Ukrainian Normal Team of workers revealed a map on February 3 indicating that Russian forces complicated in fields southwest of Nadiya (east of Borova), in fields west of Karmazynivka (southeast of Borova), and in fields southwest of Makiivka.[41]
Russian–claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complicated in fields north and additional west of Makiivka.[42] ISW has now not seen affirmation of this declare, then again.
Order of Fight: Components of the Russian “Fever” Drone Team of the first Tank Regiment (1st Guards Tank Military [GTA], Moscow Army District [MMD]) are reportedly placing Ukrainian positions close to Zahryzove.[43]
Russian forces lately complicated northeast of Lyman amid persisted offensive operations within the house on February 3. Russian forces persisted floor assaults northeast of Lyman close to Yampolivka and Terny and southeast of Lyman within the route of Serebryanka and within the Serebryanske woodland house on February 2 and three.[44]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos revealed on February 2 signifies that Russian forces lately complicated in fields north of Kolodyazi (northeast of Lyman).[45] The Ukrainian Normal Team of workers revealed a map on February 3 indicating that Russian forces most probably complicated in fields southwest of Dibrova (east of Lyman).[46]
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian purpose: Seize the whole lot of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces persisted offensive operations within the Siversk route on February 3 however didn’t make showed advances. Russian forces persisted attacking northeast of Siversk close to Bilohorivka, east of Siversk close to Verkhnokamyanske and Zolotarivka, and southeast of Siversk close to Ivano-Darivka on February 2 and three.[47]
Russian forces lately complicated within the Chasiv Yar route amid persisted offensive operations within the house on February 3. Russian forces persisted attacking inside and close to Chasiv Yar and south of Chasiv Yar close to Predtechyne on February 2 and three.[48]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos revealed on February 2 signifies that Russian forces lately complicated alongside Dniprovska Boulevard in central Chasiv Yar.[49] The Ukrainian Normal Team of workers revealed a map on February 3 indicating that Russian forces lately complicated as much as southern outskirts of Bila Hora and west of Kurdyumivka (each south of Chasiv Yar).[50]
Order of Fight: Components of the Russian 215th Reconnaissance Battalion and 299th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (either one of the 98th VDV Department) reportedly proceed running close to Chasiv Yar.[51] Components of the Russian twenty seventh Artillery Regiment (sixth Motorized Rifle Department, third Military Corps [AC]) reportedly proceed running close to Stupochky (south of Chasiv Yar).[52]
Russian forces lately complicated within the Toretsk route amid persisted offensive operations within the house on February 3. Russian forces persisted attacking close to Toretsk itself, northeast of Toretsk close to Krymske, and west of Toretsk close to Shcherbynivka on February 2 and three.[53]
Assessed Russian advances: The Ukrainian Normal Team of workers revealed a map on February 3 indicating that Russian forces lately complicated west of Niu York (southwest of Toretsk).[54]
Russian-claimed advances: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces complicated in northeastern Toretsk and north and northwest of Toretsk.[55] ISW has now not seen affirmation of those claims, then again.
Order of Fight: Components of the Russian ninth and 132nd motorized rifle brigades (either one of the 51st Blended Hands Military [CAA], previously 1st Donetsk Other people’s Republic [DNR] AC, Southern Army District [SMD]) are reportedly running close to Toretsk.[56]
Russian forces lately complicated within the Pokrovsk route amid persisted offensive operations within the house on February 3. Russian forces persisted attacking east of Pokrovsk close to Zelene Pole, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, Myrolyubivka, Malynivka, and Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk close to Lysivka; and southwest of Pokrovsk close to Kotlyarivka, Yelyzavetivka, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, and Sribne on February 2 and three.[57]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos revealed on February 3 signifies that Russian forces lately complicated southeast of Nadiivka (southwest of Pokrovsk).[58]
Russian-claimed advances: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Zelene Pole, Tarasivka (each east of Pokrovsk), and Sribne (southwest of Pokrovsk).[59] ISW has now not seen affirmation of those claims, then again.
Ukraine’s Khortytsia Team of Forces Spokesperson Primary Viktor Trehubov mentioned on February 3 that the pace of Russian offensive operations within the Pokrovsk route lately lowered and that Russian forces do not need a big sufficient materiel or workforce merit that might permit them to accentuate offensive operations to take hold of Pokrovsk.[60] ISW in the past seen Russian forces redeploying parts of the 51st CAA from the Kurakhove route to the Pokrovsk route and continues to evaluate that Russian forces might redeploy parts from the Kurakhove route to the Pokrovsk route will have to Russian forces effectively shut the Kurakhove pocket.[61] A Russian milblogger claimed that each Russian and Ukrainian forces have deployed professional drone operators to the Pokrovsk route and that the good fortune of the preventing within the house depends upon drone operators’ abilities.[62]
Order of Fight: The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) credited parts of the Russian eightieth Tank Regiment (ninetieth Tank Department, forty first CAA, Central Army District [CMD]) with the seizure of Novoyelyzavetivka (southwest of Pokrovsk), which ISW assesses that Russian forces seized as of January 14.[63] Components of the Russian “Grom” Battalion of the thirty fifth Motorized Rifle Brigade (forty first CAA) are reportedly running within the Pokrovsk route.[64]
Russian forces lately complicated within the Kurakhove route amid persisted offensive operations within the house on February 3. Russian forces persisted attacking northwest of Kurakhove close to Shevchenko and west of Kurakhove close to Dachne, Andriivka, Oleksiivka, Ulakly, and Kostyantynopil on February 2 and three.[65]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos revealed on February 3 signifies that Russian forces lately complicated in jap Andriivka.[66]
Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complicated alongside the T-0515 Pokrovsk-Andriivka-Kostyantynopil freeway north of Andriivka.[67] ISW has now not seen affirmation of this declare, then again.
Order of Fight: Drone operators of the Russian 68th Tank Regiment (one hundred and fiftieth Motorized Rifle Department, eighth CAA, SMD) are reportedly running close to Dachne.[68]
Russian forces persisted offensive operations close to Velyka Novosilka on February 3 however didn’t advance. Russian forces performed offensive operations west of Velyka Novosilka close to Novosilka and north of Velyka Novosilka close to Novyi Komar on February 2 and three.[69] Ukrainian navy observer Yuriy Butusov posted photos on February 2 of Russian forces undertaking a discounted company-sized mechanized attack in two waves close to Velyka Novosilka, and Ukrainian resources mentioned that Ukrainian forces destroyed seven automobiles.[70]
Order of Fight: A Ukrainian brigade running within the Velyka Novosilka route reported on February 3 that it performed a drone strike that killed the commander of the Russian third Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Department, fifth CAA, Jap Army District [EMD]).[71]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian purpose: Handle frontline positions and protected rear spaces towards Ukrainian moves)
Russian forces performed restricted floor assaults in western Zaporizhia Oblast close to Novodanylivka (north of Robotyne), Shcherbynivka, and Kamyanske (each northwest of Robotyne) on February 2 and three however didn’t advance.[72]
Russian forces lately complicated at the islands of the Dnipro River Delta amid persisted floor assaults within the house on February 3. Russian forces performed restricted floor assaults in an instant east of Kherson Town close to Antonivka and Prydniprovske.[73]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos revealed on February 1 signifies that Russian forces lately complicated at the jap a part of Velykyi Potemkin Island (southwest of Kherson Town).[74]
Ukraine’s Southern Protection Forces reported on February 3 that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Buk-M3 air protection machine, 3 digital war (EW) techniques, and one Starlink terminal in southern Ukraine up to now day.[75]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign (Russian Goal: Goal Ukrainian navy and civilian infrastructure within the rear and at the frontline)
Russian forces performed a sequence of drone moves towards Ukraine at the night time of February 2 to a few. The Ukrainian Air Power mentioned that Russian forces introduced 71 Shahed and decoy drones from Oryol, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Crimea.[76] The Ukrainian Air Power reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 38 drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts; and that 25 decoy drones had been “misplaced,” most probably because of Ukrainian digital war (EW) interference. Ukrainian officers mentioned that Russian drones brought about harm in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy oblasts.[77]
Russian forces proceed to modernize their strike guns to weigh down Ukrainian air defenses and purpose extra harm. Ihor Chernyak, the pinnacle of the explosives division on the Ukrainian Nationwide Police’s Sumy Oblast department mentioned on February 3 that Russian forces use Shahed drones fabricated from carbon or hydrocarbon fiber and “Gerber” drones made of froth plastic.[78] Chernyak famous that Russian forces use the Gerber drones, which can be gentle and inexpensive to provide, to weigh down Ukrainian air defenses and feature began equipping the Gerber drones with high-explosive fragmentation warheads weighing as much as 3 kilograms. Shahed drone warheads weigh between 50 and 90 kilograms, however Chernyak famous that the Gerber drones are nonetheless ready to purpose important harm. Chernyak reported that Russian forces also are launching changed missiles, together with Iskander missiles and Kh-59 cruise missiles with cluster warheads. Ukrainian navy professional Serhiy Flesh reported on February 2 that Russian forces have began to equip Gerber drones with warheads, together with high-explosive fragmentation warheads, weighing 3 to 5 kilograms.[79]
Russian Mobilization and Power Technology Efforts (Russian purpose: Amplify struggle energy with out undertaking common mobilization)
The Russian govt is increasing the federal “Time of Heroes” program, which targets to put in Kremlin-selected veterans into govt positions, to occupied Ukraine as a part of long-term efforts to combine occupied Ukraine into Russia. Kherson Oblast career governor Vladimir Saldo introduced on February 3 the “Heroes of Kherson Oblast” program.[80] Saldo welcomed Kherson Oblast citizens who’re preventing or fought with the Russian navy in Ukraine in addition to veterans from Russian areas to take part in this system. Zaporizhia Oblast career governor Yevgeny Balitsky in a similar way introduced on February 3 the “Zaporizhia Heroes” program.[81]
The Russian govt is expanding its function in managing the Russian Volunteer Society for Help to the Military, Aviation, and Army of Russia (DOSAAF) in all probability as a way to create a conscript recruitment pipeline the usage of the group’s training and recruitment infrastructure. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on February 3 stipulating that representatives of the Russian govt, together with from the Russian ministries of protection, sports activities, training, finance, and financial construction, take part within the governing our bodies of DOSAAF.[82] The decree requires those measures as a way to build up the effectiveness of making ready voters for navy carrier, broaden military-patriotic training, bolster patriotism, and build up the status of navy carrier. The decree additionally requires DOSAAF to amend its constitution to permit Russian voters who’re 14 years previous to sign up for the group. The Russian govt submitted a invoice in August 2024 to decrease the DOSAAF admission age to fourteen from 18.[83] DOSAAF is a Soviet relic that price range and promotes navy carrier for Russian formative years thru military-patriotic programming and army abilities methods and sends representatives to navy draft forums to allocate conscripts with specialised abilities into explicit navy roles.[84]
Russian milbloggers complained in regards to the inadequate amount and high quality of Russian commanders. A Russian milblogger complained that the Russian navy is “catastrophically” in need of proficient operational-level commanders and that the Russian navy must learn how to behavior assaults on the regiment and brigade point.[85] Any other Russian milblogger and previous Hurricane-Z teacher answered, claiming that the Russian navy is “catastrophically” in need of proficient commanders ranging from even the tactical point.[86] The milblogger claimed that Russian commanders on the regiment and brigade point continuously in my opinion management small tactical gadgets and that issues of micromanagement started to emerge within the Russian navy in 2022. The milblogger claimed that there have been “critical” losses amongst junior command body of workers and “substantial” losses amongst mid-level command body of workers already by way of June 2022. The milblogger claimed that the Russian command body of workers is “incompetent” and is overloaded with administrative problems at headquarters, negatively impacting their struggle making plans and command and management (C2) skills.
Russian Technological Variations (Russian purpose: Introduce technological inventions to optimize techniques to be used in Ukraine)
The Russian protection business base (DIB) continues efforts to offer protection to amenities within the Russian rear from Ukrainian moves. The Kalashnikov Fear, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned protection conglomerate Rostec, mentioned on February 3 that it introduced its new “Krona-E” air protection machine this is designed to offer protection to govt amenities, infrastructure amenities, shipment spaces, and strategic communications techniques from air moves, in particular the ones with medium-range drones.[87] The Krona-E is reportedly supplied with 9M340 and 9M333 guided air protection missiles.
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces (Russian purpose: Consolidate administrative management of annexed spaces; forcibly combine Ukrainian voters into Russian sociocultural, financial, navy, and governance techniques)
Russian government proceed efforts to militarize and advertise pro-Russian ideologies amongst Ukrainian formative years as a part of Russia’s long-term career efforts. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported on February 3 that open-source information signifies that Russian career government recruited about 1,000 Ukrainian youngsters in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast in 2024 for “Yunarmiya,” a military-patriotic motion that instills pro-Russian and militarized beliefs in formative years in Russia and occupied Ukraine.[88] Lubinets famous that Russian government are increasing the motion in occupied Ukraine, having created 23 new “cells” in 2024 on my own.
Important process in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its navy presence in Belarus and additional combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)
The Belarusian Central Election Fee (CEC) asserted on February 3 that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko gained the new presidential election with about 5.13 million votes.[89] The Belarusian CEC claimed that voter turnout was once 86.82 %. The January 26 presidential election was once neither loose nor truthful.[90]
Word: ISW does now not obtain any categorized subject matter from any supply, makes use of best publicly to be had data, and attracts widely on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially to be had satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial information as the foundation for those stories. References to all resources used are supplied within the endnotes of every replace.
[1] dot ua/information/vtrati-rosarmiyi-u-sichni-ponad-tri-diviziyi-osobovogo-skladu-ta-7-tankovih-bataljoniv ; dot com.ua/2025/02/03/vtraty-rosijskoyi-armiyi-v-sichni-ponad-3-dyviziyi-osobovogo-skladu-ta-7-tankovyh-bataljoniv/
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