Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluate, March 1, 2025
Davit Gasparyan, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, and Frederick W. Kagan with William Runkel
March 1, 2025, 5:00 pm ET
Click on right here to peer ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day-to-day along the static maps provide on this record.
Click on right here to peer ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast.
Click on right here to peer ISW’s three-D management of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a pc (now not a cellular instrument) is strongly really helpful for the use of this data-heavy device.
Click on right here to get admission to ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those maps supplement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces day-to-day through appearing a dynamic frontline. ISW will replace this time-lapse map archive per thirty days.
Notice: The knowledge cut-off for this product was once 11:30am ET on March 1. ISW will duvet next studies within the March 2 Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluate.
Senior US officers are suggesting that the USA would possibly lower all help to Ukraine, even though US President Donald Trump has now not indicated this sort of goal. Chopping the present waft of help to Ukraine would at once undermine President Trump’s mentioned function of accomplishing a sustainable peace in Ukraine. The New York Instances and Washington Submit, bringing up unnamed senior Trump Management officers, reported on February 28 that the Trump Management is thinking about canceling all US army help to Ukraine, together with any ultimate help shipments that former US President Joe Biden authorized.[1]
Ukrainian forces, enabled through very important US help, are causing unsustainable losses on Russian forces whilst preserving them to marginal good points. This case, mixed with the critical demanding situations Russia will face in 2025, provides the USA nice leverage in peace negotiations. A suspension of ongoing US army help to Ukraine would inspire Russian President Vladimir Putin to proceed to extend his calls for and gasoline his conviction that he can reach overall victory via struggle. ISW has many times highlighted the significance of endured and well timed Western army help to Ukraine and seen a correlation between the magnitude of the Russian good points in Ukraine and delays or halts in Western army strengthen.[2] Ukrainian forces have leveraged US-supplied army programs, together with Patriot air protection programs and HIMARS and ATACMS long-range strike programs, to protect in opposition to nightly Russian drone and missile moves, beef up Ukraine’s strike functions, complicate Russian logistics and command and management (C2), and disrupt Russia’s protection commercial base (DIB). Ukrainian efforts, aided through the stable waft of Western help, have considerably slowed Russian advances alongside the entrance, inflicted vital Russian team of workers and gear losses, and undermined Russia’s efforts to mission financial and home balance amid emerging pressures from the struggle.[3] Russia’s financial, pressure technology, and protection commercial constraints supply key alternatives that Ukraine, the USA, and its Western allies may leverage to extract concessions from Putin in peace negotiations.
The cessation of US army help and fiscal help geared toward strengthening Ukraine’s protection trade may lend a hand tip the steadiness of the struggle and provides Russia larger benefits at the battlefield in Ukraine, expanding the possibility of a Russian victory in Ukraine. Russia would leverage the cessation of US help to Ukraine to grasp extra territory in Ukraine and try to exhaust Ecu strengthen – the way Putin has defined in his concept of victory.[4] Finishing US help to Ukraine and enabling additional Russian good points would additionally embolden Putin and give a boost to his trust that Russia can grasp and management Ukraine and different former Soviet international locations, together with present NATO member states. The Kremlin will most probably accentuate its army marketing campaign in Ukraine and try to exploit any lengthen or cessation of US army help to Ukraine – because the Kremlin did in Spring 2024.[5]
Curbing help to Ukraine would possibility diminishing US affect on this planet and emboldening US adversaries. Russia, Iran, North Korea, and the Folks’s Republic of China (PRC) have shaped a bloc geared toward defeating the USA and its allies world wide and are recently trying out the boundaries of US dedication to its allies in Europe, the Center East, and the Asia-Pacific area.[6] PRC President Xi Jinping mentioned all the way through a telephone name with Russian President Vladimir Putin in past due February 2025 that the PRC and Russia are “true pals” who “can’t be moved away” from every different and is probably not influenced through “any 3rd birthday party.”[7] Russia established bilateral complete strategic partnership agreements because the get started of the struggle with the PRC in Might 2023, North Korea in October 2024, and Iran in January 2025.[8] Putin continues to depend on Iranian drones and North Korean ballistic missiles and troops in his struggle in opposition to Ukraine.[9] US help to Ukraine is an illustration of the USA’ dedication to protecting democracies in opposition to ongoing and long run aggression world wide, together with however now not restricted to Ukraine, Israel, South Korea, and Taiwan. The Russia-led bloc will most probably see the USA forsaking Ukraine as a hallmark that the USA will abandon its different allies and can search to check the boundaries of US dedication world wide. The Russia-led bloc is on the lookout for simply exploitable divisions between the USA and its allies to isolate and weaken the USA at the world degree, permitting adversaries to stand up and dictate the place and the way the USA can have interaction the sector. Chopping US help to Ukraine performs at once into those adversaries’ targets and is a step towards curbing US affect on this planet.
Putin, now not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, stays the primary impediment to an enduring peace settlement on Ukraine. Zelensky has frequently reiterated his dedication to acquiring a simply and lasting peace in Ukraine via negotiations. Zelensky has indicated a number of occasions — together with in his February 28 Fox Information interview — that he’s prepared to make concessions on territory, Ukraine’s NATO club, or even his personal tenure in place of work to safe a simply and sustainable peace.[10] Those concessions align with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s February 26 remark that “what Ukraine actually wishes is deterrence…to make it pricey for somebody to return after them once more at some point” and that each the USA and Europe “will also be concerned” in such deterrence efforts.[11]
Putin and different senior Kremlin officers have against this frequently reiterated their dedication to Putin’s preliminary struggle objectives in Ukraine, which quantity to Ukraine’s complete capitulation, changing the present Ukrainian executive with a pro-Russian puppet executive, and Ukrainian commitments to neutrality and demilitarization — all of which would go away Ukraine just about helpless in opposition to long run Russian aggression and destabilization efforts.[12] Putin and different Kremlin officers are repackaging those calls for in efforts to look prepared to barter in excellent religion with the USA, more likely to extract concessions from the USA relating to Ukraine.[13] Attaining a significant peace in Ukraine would require the USA and its allies to lend a hand Ukraine proceed to inflict vital losses on Russia and to adopt a diplomatic and financial power marketing campaign geared toward forcing Putin to desert his insistence on complete Ukrainian give up and efforts to weaken Europe and the USA.
The Kremlin introduced any other informational effort supposed to deter further US and Ecu army help to Ukraine through claiming that Russia has gained the struggle in Ukraine. Kremlin newswire TASS requested former Austrian Overseas Minister and present head of the St. Petersburg State College Geopolitical Observatory for Russia’s Key Problems (GORKI) Middle Karin Kneissl on March 1 if Russia has gained the struggle in Ukraine.[14] Kneissl mentioned that “Russia has gained within the sense that it was once now not defeated,” “the [Russian] inhabitants helps the federal government,” and “no person anticipated Russia to be so strong” after years of struggle. This new narrative is most probably a part of an ongoing rhetorical effort geared toward depicting Russian victory over Ukraine as inevitable with the intention to deter additional Western army help and different strengthen of Ukraine. Ukraine’s Primary Army Intelligence Directorate (GUR) lately warned that the Kremlin was once getting ready to claim “victory” over Ukraine amid studies that the Kremlin had ordered Russian state media personalities to accentuate narratives supposed to fracture Ukrainian society and discredit Ukraine amongst Western allies.[15]
Ecu international locations stay dedicated to supporting the Ukrainian army and protection trade, alternatively, amid arrangements for a Ecu protection summit about Ukraine on March 2. Norwegian corporate Kongsberg Protection and Aerospace President Eirik Lie introduced on February 28 that the corporate, which produces NASAMS air protection programs, is organising a three way partnership in Ukraine.[16] Lie mentioned that the corporate’s precedence might be to “mass produce” NASAMS missiles the use of unspecified Ukrainian generation. Ecu leaders expressed in style strengthen for Ukraine following Zelensky’s assembly with Trump on the White Area on February 28.[17] British Top Minister Keir Starmer welcomed Zelensky to London on March 1 and emphasised that “[Ukraine has] complete backing throughout the UK.”[18] Zelensky will attend a Ecu protection summit in London on March 2 to speak about peace plans in Ukraine and joint protection problems.[19] Leaders from France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Turkey, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Finland, Sweden, Czechia, and Romania, in addition to NATO Normal Secretary Mark Rutte, Ecu Fee President Ursula von der Leyen, and Ecu Council President Antonio Costa will attend the summit.[20]
Key Takeaways:
Senior US officers are suggesting that the USA would possibly lower all help to Ukraine, even though US President Donald Trump has now not indicated this sort of goal. Chopping the present waft of help to Ukraine would at once undermine President Trump’s mentioned function of accomplishing a sustainable peace in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces enabled through very important US help are causing unsustainable losses on Russian forces whilst preserving them to marginal good points. This case, mixed with the critical demanding situations Russia will face in 2025, provides america nice leverage in peace negotiations. A suspension of ongoing US army help to Ukraine would inspire Russian President Vladimir Putin to proceed to extend his calls for and gasoline his conviction that he can reach overall victory via struggle.
Curbing help to Ukraine would possibility diminishing US affect on this planet and emboldening US adversaries.
Putin, now not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, stays the primary impediment to an enduring peace settlement on Ukraine.
The Kremlin introduced any other informational effort supposed to deter further US and Ecu army help to Ukraine through claiming that Russia has gained the struggle in Ukraine.
Ecu international locations stay dedicated to supporting the Ukrainian army and protection trade, alternatively, amid arrangements for a Ecu protection summit about Ukraine on March 2.
Ukrainian forces lately complex close to Toretsk and Russian forces lately complex close to Velyka Novosilka.
The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) continues to recruit medically not worthy squaddies to be able to cope with team of workers shortages.
We don’t record intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of those actions are well-covered in Western media and do indirectly impact the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We can proceed to guage and record at the results of those felony actions at the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and in particular on struggle in Ukrainian city spaces. We totally condemn Russian violations of the regulations of armed struggle and the Geneva Conventions and crimes in opposition to humanity even supposing we don’t describe them in those studies.
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian Primary Effort – Japanese Ukraine (made out of 3 subordinate major efforts)
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces again from the global border with Belgorod Oblast and technique to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #2 – Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #3 – Seize the whole thing of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign
Russian Mobilization and Power Technology Efforts
Russian Technological Variations
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces
Important Job in Belarus
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian forces endured offensive operations alongside the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on March 1 however didn’t make showed advances. Russian forces endured attacking northwest of Sudzha close to Lebedevka and north of Sudzha close to Malaya Loknya, Viktorovka, and Novaya Sorochina on February 28 and March 1.[21]
A milblogger claimed on March 1 that parts of the Russian 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) asked that Russian forces habits an airstrike with a FAB-3000 in opposition to Guyevo (south of Sudzha) following studies of a FAB-3000 strike close to Kurilovka (instantly north of Guyevo) on February 28.[22]
Russian forces endured to say on March 1 that Russian forces are working in northern Sumy Oblast close to the global border.
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Zhuravka, Sumy Oblast (northwest of Sudzha and alongside the Sumy-Kursk Oblast global border), and any other milblogger claimed that Russian forces endured preventing close to Novenke, Sumy Oblast (instantly east of Zhuravka alongside the global border).[23]
Order of Struggle: Components of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly working close to Zhuravka.[24]
Russian Primary Effort – Japanese Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian goal: Push Ukrainian forces again from the global border with Belgorod Oblast and technique to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town)
Russian forces endured restricted flooring assaults northeast of Kharkiv Town close to Vovchansk on February 28 and March 1 however didn’t make showed advances.[25]
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complex 50 meters in Vovchansk and cleared a part of the northern financial institution of the Vovcha River within the agreement.[26]
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and northerly Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Kupyansk route on March 1 however didn’t advance. Russian forces attacked north of Kupyansk close to Holubivka, northwest of Kupyansk close to Kindrashivka, northeast of Kupyansk close to Dvorichna, and southeast of Kupyansk close to Novoosynove on February 28 and March 1.[27]
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed on March 1 that Russian forces complex as much as two kilometers alongside the Kindrashivka-Makiivka-Serebryanka (from northwest of Kupyansk to east of Lyman) line, whilst any other Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are advancing towards Kindrashivka and increasing the bridgehead close to the Oskil River.[28] Some other Russian milblogger claimed on February 28 that Russian forces are advancing alongside the global border and northeast of Kupyansk close to Stroivka and east of Kupyansk close to Kucherivka.[29]
Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Borova route on March 1 however didn’t advance. Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova close to Zahryzove and Lozova on February 28 and March 1.[30]
A Russian milblogger claimed on March 1 that Russian forces are engaging in Shahed moves in opposition to Kharkiv Town and Borova and insinuated that Russian forces is also integrating Shahed moves with flooring task.[31] ISW can not independently verify this declare and has now not seen identical claims as of this newsletter.
Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Lyman route on March 1 however didn’t advance. Russian forces attacked north of Lyman close to Zelena Dolyna and northeast of Lyman close to Nove, Novomykhailivka, Ivanivka, and Yampolivka on February 28 and March 1.[32]
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed on February 28 that Russian forces complex west and as much as 300 meters south of Yampolivka and proceed to advance within the route of Kolodyazi (northeast of Lyman).[33]
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize the whole thing of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Siversk route on March 1 however didn’t advance. Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk close to Bilohorivka and east of Siversk close to Verkhnokamyanske on February 28 and March 1.[34] A Russian supply claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Bilohorivka.[35]
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complex one kilometer southwest of Bilohorivka.[36]
Order of Struggle: Components of the Russian 1102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (third Blended Palms Military [CAA], previously second Luhansk Folks’s Republic Military Corps [LNR AC], Southern Army District [SMD]) reportedly proceed to function close to Bilohorivka.[37]
Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Chasiv Yar route on March 1 however didn’t advance. Russian forces attacked north of Chasiv Yar close to Orikhovo-Vasylivka on February 28 and March 1.[38]
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian supply claimed that Russian forces complex south of Chasiv Yar close to Stupochky.[39]
A Russian milblogger claimed on March 1 that excellent climate prerequisites and intensified Ukrainian drone operations are complicating Russian task close to Chasiv Yar.[40]
Order of Struggle: Components of the 98th Airborne (VDV) Department, together with drone operators of the 215th Reconnaissance Battalion, are reportedly working close to Chasiv Yar.[41]
Ukrainian forces lately complex within the Toretsk route. Russian forces carried out offensive operations close to Toretsk itself; north of Toretsk close to Krymske, Dachne, and Dyliivka; southwest of Toretsk close to Leonidivka; and west of Toretsk close to Shcherbynivka on February 28 and March 1.[42]
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated photos revealed on February 28 signifies that Ukrainian forces lately complex close to Tolbukhina Side road and close to the Tsentralna Mine (each in central Toretsk).[43]
A Russian milblogger claimed on March 1 that Ukrainian forces have a quantitative drone merit close to Toretsk and are actively engaging in sabotage and reconnaissance missions close to the Mine No. 10 waste heap in northwestern Toretsk, the Tsentralna Mine, the multi-story development block in central Toretsk, and close to the Toretska Mine waste heap in northern Toretsk.[44] The milblogger characterised a substantial portion of Toretsk as a contested “grey zone” and postulated that Russian forces would possibly switch further forces to Toretsk with the intention to give a boost to the Russian pressure grouping within the house.
Order of Struggle: Drone operators of the Russian 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, previously 1st Donetsk Folks’s Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) and the 238th Artillery Brigade (eighth CAA, SMD) are reportedly hanging Ukrainian positions close to Ivanopillya (northwest of Toretsk).[45]
Russian forces endured attacks within the Pokrovsk route on March 1 however didn’t advance. Russian forces endured assaults northeast of Pokrovsk close to Nova Poltavka; east of Pokrovsk close to Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk close to Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk close to Pishchane; and southwest of Pokrovsk close to Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoukrainka, Nadiivka, Preobrazhenka, and Bohdanivka on February 28 and March 1.[46]
Order of Struggle: Components of the Russian 433rd and 506th motorized rifle regiments (twenty seventh Motorized Rifle Department, second CAA, Central Army District [CMD]) are reportedly working close to and inside Uspenivka (southwest of Pokrovsk).[47]
Russian forces endured flooring assaults west of Kurakhove close to Kostyantynopil, Andriivka, and Ulakly on February 28 and March 1 however didn’t make showed advances.[48]
Russian forces lately complex within the Velyka Novosilka route. Russian forces endured flooring assaults northwest of Velyka Novosilka close to Pryvilne and Burlatske, north of Velyka Novosilka close to Skudne and Dniproenerhiya, and southwest of Velyka Novosilka close to Rivnopil on February 28 and March 1.[49]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos revealed on February 28 displays that Russian forces complex south of Burlatske.[50]
Unconfirmed Russian claims: The Russian MoD claimed on March 1 that parts of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Department (fifth CAA, Japanese Army District [EMD]) and fifth Tank Brigade (thirty sixth CAA, EMD) seized Skudne and Burlatske, following Russian milblogger claims since February 25 of seizing those settlements.[51] A milblogger claimed that Russian forces additionally complex north of Burlatske.[52] One milblogger claimed that Russian forces additionally seized Pryvilne, however others claimed that Russian forces best reached the japanese outskirts and that preventing for the agreement continues.[53]
Order of Struggle: A Russian milblogger claimed that parts of the Russian 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Department) lately changed parts of the Russian sixtieth Motorized Rifle Brigade (fifth CAA) in preventing north of Burlatske.[54]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian goal: Care for frontline positions and safe rear spaces in opposition to Ukrainian moves)
Russian forces carried out a restricted flooring assault southwest of Hulyaipole close to Charivne on March 1 however didn’t make showed advances.[55]
Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Zaporizhia route on March 1 however didn’t advance. Russian forces attacked northwest of Robotyne close to Pyatykhatyky and Kamyanske on February 28 and March 1.[56] A Russian milblogger claimed on March 1 that Ukrainian forces marginally complex northwest of Robotyne close to Shcherbaky.[57]
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed on March 1 that Russian forces seized maximum of Pyatykhatky.[58]
Order of Struggle: Components of the Russian BARS-11 Detachment (Russian Struggle Military Reserve) reportedly proceed to coach in an unspecified close to rear house in Zaporizhia Oblast.[59]
Russian forces attacked in unspecified spaces within the Kherson route on March 1 however didn’t advance.[60]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign (Russian Purpose: Goal Ukrainian army and civilian infrastructure within the rear and at the frontline)
Russian forces carried out a sequence of drone moves in opposition to Ukraine in a single day on February 28 to March 1. The Ukrainian Air Power reported that Russian forces introduced 154 Shahed and decoy drones from the instructions of Oryol, Kursk, and Bryansk towns; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[61] Ukrainian forces downed 103 drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts, and any other 51 drones have been “misplaced,” most probably because of Ukrainian digital battle (EW) interference. Ukrainian officers reported that Shahed moves broken homes and civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv, Odesa, and Cherkasy oblasts and Kyiv and Kharkiv towns.[62]
Russian Mobilization and Power Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Extend struggle energy with out engaging in normal mobilization)
The Russian MoD continues to recruit medically not worthy squaddies to be able to cope with team of workers shortages. A Russian milblogger claimed on March 1 that Russian government are concentrated on prone people, together with the ones with alcoholism, developmental disabilities, and psychological well being issues, via deception and coercion schemes to satisfy contract soldier recruitment quotas.[63] The milblogger additionally complained that Russian federal topic recruitment systems incentivize bringing any other unwitting individual to signal an army carrier contract and that the Russian MoD lately recruited no less than one prisoner convicted of sexual crimes. The milblogger criticized the standard of those recruits and claimed that this can be a systemic factor, and that the Russian army management is conscious about and using those problems.
Russian Technological Variations (Russian goal: Introduce technological inventions to optimize programs to be used in Ukraine)
Not anything vital to record.
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces (Russian goal: Consolidate administrative management of annexed spaces; forcibly combine Ukrainian electorate into Russian sociocultural, financial, army, and governance programs)
ISW isn’t publishing protection of actions in Russian-occupied spaces as of late.
Important task in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its army presence in Belarus and additional combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)
Not anything vital to record.
Notice: ISW does now not obtain any categorised subject material from any supply, makes use of best publicly to be had data, and attracts broadly on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially to be had satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial records as the foundation for those studies. References to all assets used are equipped within the endnotes of every replace.
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