Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, December 27, 2024
Kateryna Stepanenko, Olivia Gibson, Nate Trotter, Angelica Evans, and George Barros
December 27, 2024, 9:20 pm ET
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Be aware: The information cut-off for this product used to be 2pm ET on December 27. ISW will duvet next experiences within the December 28 Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation.
Russia has persevered to amplify its home manufacturing features of Iranian-designed Shahed drones forward of its Iciness 2024-2025 strike marketing campaign in opposition to Ukraine. The Gentleman Report, bringing up Ukrainian protection intelligence resources, estimated on December 27 that Russia’s Shahed drone manufacturing facility within the Alabuga Particular Financial Zone (SEZ) within the Republic of Tatarstan produced 5,760 drones between January and September 2024 — greater than two times the selection of drones that the ability produced in 2023.[1] The Gentleman Report reported that satellite tv for pc imagery presentations that Russian government have built two new structures and seem to have put in anti-drone mesh cages over a number of structures on the facility within the Alabuga SEZ. The Gentleman Report, bringing up leaked paperwork from the ability, reported that the Alabuga facility is Russia’s major Shahed manufacturing facility and has already fulfilled an settlement to supply 6,000 drones for the Russian army through September 2025. Resources in Ukraine’s protection intelligence advised The Gentleman Report that the Alabuga facility started generating low-tech “decoy” drones that resemble Shahed drones and that Russian forces use those decoys to weigh down Ukrainian air protection techniques in Summer season 2024. The resources advised The Gentleman Report that Russia intends to supply 10,000 decoy drones through the tip of 2024 — virtually double the selection of Shahed strike drones that Russia produced within the first 9 months of 2024 — since decoy drones are 10 occasions less expensive to supply than armed Shahed strike drones. The Gentleman Report famous that Russia has additionally built a educate station close to the Alabuga SEZ with a right away rail connection between Russia and the Folks’s Republic of China (PRC), which a Ukrainian intelligence officer mentioned might be used to switch parts required for drone manufacturing between the PRC and the Alabuga SEZ.
Russia has but to handle barriers in its talent to supply and box Shahed drones, then again, and can most probably proceed to fight with those barriers in 2025. ISW has in the past seen indications that Western sanctions are complicating Russia’s talent to supply high quality parts for Shahed drones and that Russia is an increasing number of depending on low high quality motors from the PRC to energy Shahed drones.[2] Ukrainian digital conflict (EW) inventions additionally seem to be enabling Ukrainian forces to disrupt Shahed-heavy moves extra successfully.[3] Russian forces will most probably proceed to regulate their strike applications right through Iciness 2024-2025 and past as a way to inflict important injury on Ukraine’s power grid and important infrastructure, and Russia most probably intends to additional building up its manufacturing and use of Shahed drones following the expected signing of the Russian-Iranian Complete Strategic Partnership Settlement in January 2025.[4]
North Korean forces are proceeding to revel in excessive casualty charges amid fresh affirmation of the primary captured North Korean soldier in Kursk Oblast. White Space Nationwide Safety Communications Guide John Kirby mentioned on December 27 that North Korean forces suffered round 1,000 casualties during the last week in Kursk Oblast (kind of December 20 to 27) and that the Russian command is the usage of — and North Korean government are allowing Russia to make use of — decrease and higher-ranking North Korean infantrymen in infantry-led attacks with out armored car strengthen.[5] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned on December 23 that over 3,000 North Korean staff were killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast, kind of a fourth of the 12,000 general reported North Korean staff in Kursk Oblast.[6] South Korea’s Nationwide Intelligence Carrier (NIS) showed on December 26, following consultations with Ukrainian intelligence, that Ukrainian Particular Operations Forces (SSO) captured a wounded North Korean soldier in Kursk Oblast and Ukrainian resources posted photographs allegedly appearing the captured North Korean soldier.[7] ISW is not able to make sure the photographs, then again.
Ukrainian forces currently carried out a HIMARS strike in opposition to a Russian workforce assembly in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, reportedly killing 3 Russian officials, following Ukrainian warnings about the opportunity of renewed Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[8] Ukraine’s Major Army Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 27 that the GUR, the Ukrainian Safety Carrier (SBU), Ukrainian Unmanned Programs Forces, and the Ukrainian Tavriisk Staff of Forces carried out a HIMARS and next drone moves in opposition to a management assembly of the Russian 4th Army Base (58th Blended Hands Military [CAA], Southern Army District [SMD]) in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The strike reportedly killed the commander of the Russian 1st Battalion of the one hundred and thirty fifth Motorized Rifle Regiment (nineteenth Motorized Rifle Department, 58th CAA, SMD) Captain Dmitriy Nagorny, Deputy Head of Intelligence Workforce of the one hundred and thirty fifth Motorized Rifle Regiment Captain Grigoriy Krokhmalyov, and commander of an anti-aircraft battery of the 4th Army Base Captain Yuriy Fomin.[9] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces lured the Russian officials below the guise of humanitarian assist deliveries within the rear of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast after which carried out a mixed drone and HIMARS strike in opposition to the officials.[10] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces knew the officials’ non-public knowledge together with who they communicated with, their buddies, and who had in the past delivered humanitarian assist to them and that Ukrainian forces carried out a equivalent operation in opposition to every other unspecified Russian unit on December 27.[11]
Russian Federal Air Shipping Company (Rosaviatsiya) tried in charge climate prerequisites and the pilot’s reaction to the Russian emergency airspace closure over the Republic of Chechnya for the Azerbaijan Airways Embraer 190 passenger plane crash in Aktau, Kazakhstan on December 25. Rosaviatsiya Head Dmitry Yadrov mentioned on December 27 that the Azerbaijani plane – which used to be flying from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya – tried to land two occasions on the Grozny airport amidst a declared emergency closure of Russian airspace because of a Ukrainian drone risk.[12] Yadrov additionally tried to give an explanation for the aircraft’s failure to land in Grozny a number of occasions, claiming that heavy fog over Grozny could have impacted the visibility to as much as 500 meters. Yadov claimed that the pilot in my view determined to land in Aktau although Russian air site visitors controllers proposed for the plane to land at different Russian airports. Yadrov didn’t remark at the Azerbaijani, Western, and Russian initial experiences {that a} Russian Pantsir-S air protection device struck the plane after digital conflict (EW) jamming led to the aircraft’s communications and GPS techniques to malfunction because the aircraft approached Grozny.[13] BBC Russian Carrier reported that the Russian state TV channels in a similar way blamed the aircraft crash on fog and the aircraft’s intended collision with a flock of birds of their protection straight away following the incident however later started exploring different theories and in large part avoided appearing the photos that urged that Russian air protection techniques could have struck the aircraft.[14]
A Russian insider supply – who’s reportedly affiliated with Russian regulation enforcement and launched an alleged transcript of the communications between the team and a Russian air site visitors management in Grozny – accused Yadrov of making an attempt to hide the misuse of Russian air protection techniques.[15] ISW is not able to authenticate the transcript. The insider supply claimed that the purported transcript means that the dispatcher didn’t warn the team about foggy climate or alert them to the announcement of the emergency airspace closure. The purported transcript as an alternative means that the team knowledgeable the dispatcher of the whole failure of the GPS and conversation techniques as they tried to land in Grozny 3 times. The insider supply, bringing up reputable resources on the Grozny Airport, claimed that Russian officers handiest introduced the emergency airspace closure after the plane rerouted again to Baku. The insider supply additionally identified that the purported transcript means that the pilot at the beginning determined to fly again to Baku after failing to land in Grozny however that the plane sustained broken from what the team assessed used to be a flock of birds. The insider supply added that the purported transcript additionally presentations that the dispatcher didn’t willingly suggest any choice airports in Russia for emergency touchdown after the aircraft sustained injury and handiest equipped a listing of different airports in responds to the team’s questions.
Finnish government seized the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker on suspicion that the vessel used to be currently thinking about harmful undersea electrical energy and telecommunication cables within the Baltic Sea however famous that it’s too quickly to conclude that Russia is at the back of the cable disruptions. Finnish government seized the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker touring from St. Petersburg to Egypt within the Gulf of Finland on December 26 on suspicion of the vessel’s possible involvement in harmful the Estlink 2 electrical energy cable, which transports electrical energy between Estonia and Finland, and a number of other different telecommunication cables between Finland, Estonia, and Germany on December 25.[16] Finnish Top Minister Petteri Orpo introduced on December 25 that Finland had opened an investigation into the supply of the wear and tear, which considerably lowered the cable’s capability.[17] Orpo mentioned on December 26 that it’s too early within the investigation to conclude that Russia is at the back of the cable disruptions.[18] Estonian Top Minister Kristen Michal mentioned right through a information convention on December 26 that cable maintenance will take months to finish.[19] Estonian Protection Minister Hanno Pevkur introduced on December 27 that Estonia deployed naval patrols to offer protection to the Estlink 1 undersea cable and that Estonia will visit NATO army officers.[20] NATO Secretary Common Mark Rutte spoke with Finnish President Alex Stubb on December 27 concerning the ongoing investigation into possible sabotage of the cables and introduced that NATO will as a result beef up its army presence within the Baltic Sea.[21] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to touch upon December 27 on Finland’s detention of the tanker.[22] A supply reportedly acquainted with the tanker and who equipped business maritime services and products to the tanker as currently as seven months in the past advised delivery information outlet Lloyd’s Checklist on December 27 that the tanker is supplied with transmitting and receiving units that enabled the tanker to observe and document the radio frequencies of NATO ships and plane running within the house.[23] The supply additional claimed that Russian government offloaded the units for research upon achieving Russia and that the Kremlin is deploying Russian-linked service provider ships to the Baltic Sea for spying and sabotage actions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Safety Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to go the newly established Clinical Professional Council of the Russian Safety Council. Putin issued a decree on December 27 developing the Clinical Professional Council of the Russian Safety Council and specified that Shoigu will chair the council.[24] Putin’s decree states that the brand new advisory council will beef up the clinical, methodological, and expert-analytical strengthen for the Safety Council and its operating our bodies. Russian media reported that the decree additionally reportedly abolished the former Clinical Council without delay subordinated to the Safety Council.[25] ISW has no longer seen proof to indicate that Shoigu might be got rid of from his present place as Secretary of the Russian Safety Council as a part of this new appointment.
Key Takeaways:
Russia has persevered to amplify its home manufacturing features of Iranian-designed Shahed drones forward of its Iciness 2024–2025 strike marketing campaign in opposition to Ukraine.
Russia has but to handle barriers in its talent to supply and box Shahed drones, then again, and can most probably proceed to fight with those barriers in 2025.
North Korean forces are proceeding to revel in excessive casualty charges amid fresh affirmation of the primary captured North Korean soldier in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces currently carried out a HIMARS strike in opposition to a Russian workforce assembly in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, reportedly killing 3 Russian officials, following Ukrainian warnings about the opportunity of renewed Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast
Russian Federal Air Shipping Company (Rosaviatsiya) tried in charge climate prerequisites and the pilot’s reaction to the Russian emergency airspace closure over the Republic of Chechnya for the Azerbaijan Airways Embraer 190 passenger plane crash in Aktau, Kazakhstan on December 25.
A Russian insider supply — who’s reportedly affiliated with Russian regulation enforcement and launched an alleged transcript of the communications between the team and a Russian air site visitors management in Grozny — accused Rosaviatsiya of making an attempt to hide the misuse of Russian air protection techniques.
Finnish government seized the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker on suspicion that the vessel used to be currently thinking about harmful undersea electrical energy and telecommunication cables within the Baltic Sea however famous that it’s too quickly to conclude that Russia is at the back of the cable disruptions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Safety Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to go the newly established Clinical Professional Council of the Russian Safety Council.
Ukrainian forces currently regained positions close to Siversk and Russian forces currently complex close to Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and within the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove instructions.
Russian federal topics (areas) are proceeding to extend the price of enlistment bonuses to incentivize army recruitment.
We don’t file intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of those actions are well-covered in Western media and do indirectly impact the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We will be able to proceed to judge and file at the results of those legal actions at the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city spaces. We completely condemn Russian violations of the regulations of armed war and the Geneva Conventions and crimes in opposition to humanity even supposing we don’t describe them in those experiences.
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian Major Effort – Japanese Ukraine (constructed from 3 subordinate major efforts)
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces again from the world border with Belgorod Oblast and technique to inside of tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #2 – Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #3 – Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign
Russian Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts
Russian Technological Variations
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces
Important Job in Belarus
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Combating persevered inside of the primary Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on December 27 however there have been no showed advances. A Ukrainian battalion running in Kursk Oblast reported that Ukrainian forces seized an unspecified place within the house.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are advancing north of Russkoye Porechnoye and from Nechayev (each north of Sudzha), however ISW has no longer seen affirmation of this declare.[27] Russian forces carried out offensive operations south of Kruglenkoye (southeast of Korenevo), north of Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha), and within the wooded area spaces close to Sudzha.[28] Geolocated photos revealed on December 26 presentations that Ukrainian forces repelled a kind of platoon-sized Russian mechanized attack west of Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha).[29] Russian milbloggers claimed on December 26 and 27 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked all over their salient from southeast Korenevo to the south of Sudzha alongside the Leonidovo-Guyevo line and within the forested spaces of Sudzha Raion.[30] Drone operators of the Russian 76th Airborne (VDV) Department, components of the thirty fourth Motorized Rifle Brigade (forty ninth Blended Hands Military [CAA], Southern Army District [SMD]), and components of the Russian eightieth Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Military Corps [AC], Leningrad Army District [LMD]) are reportedly running in Kursk Oblast.[31]
Russian Major Effort – Japanese Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian goal: Push Ukrainian forces again from the world border with Belgorod Oblast and technique to inside of tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town)
Russian forces persevered flooring assaults within the Kharkiv path on December 27 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian resources claimed on December 26 and 27 that Russian forces complex northeast of Kharkiv Town in Starytsya, crossed the Vovcha River, complex 80 meters in Vovchansk, and are seeking to get ready a bridgehead for additional operations within the house.[32] ISW has no longer seen affirmation of those claims, then again. Russian forces carried out offensive operations north of Kharkiv Town close to Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv Town close to Starytsya and Vovchansk on December 26 and 27.[33] A Russian milblogger claimed on December 27 that Ukrainian forces carried out two platoon-sized infantry counterattacks close to Vovchansk.[34]
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and northerly Donetsk Oblast)
Russian resources claimed that Russian forces complex southeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Kreminna, however ISW has no longer seen visible affirmation of a few those claims. The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed on December 27 that components of the Russian twenty seventh Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Guards Tank Military [GTA], Moscow Army District [MMD]) seized Lozova (southeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces additionally seized Zahryzove (southeast of Kupyansk) and Ivanivka (northwest of Kreminna) during the last week (between December 21 and 27).[35] ISW assesses that Russian forces seized Lozova round December 24, however has no longer practice visible proof of Russian forces running in Ivanivka or within the southwestern a part of Zahryzove.[36] Russian resources particularly claimed on December 27 that Russian forces handiest complex in part of Zahryzove and that Ukrainian forces are nonetheless counterattacking in southern previous of the agreement.[37] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces withdrew from northeastern outskirts of Kupyansk to fortified positions close to Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk) some time in the past because of Ukrainian drones disrupting Russian flooring traces of conversation (GLOCs) however didn’t specify the date of the withdrawal.[38] A Russian milblogger additionally claimed that Russian forces crossed the Vovcha River close to Ivanivka, however didn’t supply visible proof of this declare.[39] An officer in a Ukrainian brigade running within the Kupyansk path reported that Russian forces try to succeed in Dvorichna (northeast of Kupyansk) and pass the Oskil River below the quilt of evening or deficient climate prerequisites.[40] Ukrainian army observer Kostyantyn Mashovets famous that components of the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Department (sixth Blended Military [CAA], Leningrad Army District [LMD]) have no longer been a success in considerably increasing their bridgehead close to Dvorichna.[41] Russian forces persevered attacks northeast of Kupyansk close to Zapadne; southeast of Kupyansk close to Lozova, Kruhlyakivka, Bohuslavaka, Pishchane, and Nova Krukhlyakivka; west of Svatove close to Pershotravneve, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Zeleny Hai, and Nadiya; southwest of Svatove close to Kovalivka, Cherneshchyna, Novoserhiivka, and Druzhelyubivka; northwest of Kreminna close to Makiivka and Terny; west of Kreminna close to Torske and Zarichne; and southwest of Kreminna close to Dibrova, Platonivka, and Serebraynske wooded area.[42] Components of the Russian twenty fifth “Typhoon” attack detachment are reportedly running close to Dvorichna and the Russian mobilized “Kontora” workforce of the 375th Separate Anti-Tank Artillery Battalion (forty seventh Tank Department, 1st GTA) is reportedly running within the Kupyansk path.[43] Mashovets reported that components of the Russian 1st Motorized Tank Regiment, 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment, and separate detachments of the fifteenth Motorized Riffle Regiment (all a part of the second Motorized Rifle Department, 1st GTA) are reportedly running within the path of Krukhlyakivka-Zahryzove.[44] Mashovets mentioned that the Russian army command had most probably deployed further detachments of the 237th Tank Regiment and 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (third Motorized Rifle Department, twentieth CAA, MMD) and gadgets of the twenty fifth Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (sixth CAA, LMD) and the twenty seventh Motorized Brigade to behavior attacks within the Borova path.[45]
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian forces currently regained misplaced positions amid persevered Russian offensive operations within the Siversk path on December 27. Geolocated photos revealed on December 26 signifies that Ukrainian forces currently complex to a windbreak north of Verkhnokamyanske (east of Siversk).[46] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complex as much as a kilometer towards Siversk and towards Vyimka (southeast of Siversk) from the south.[47] ISW has no longer seen affirmation of this declare, then again. Russian forces persevered assaults northeast of Siversk close to Bilohorivka and within the path of Vyimka on December 26 and 27.[48] Drone operators of the Russian seventh Motorized Rifle Brigade (third Blended Hands Military [CAA], previously second Luhansk Folks’s Republic [LNR] Military Corps [AC]) are reportedly running close to Bilohorivka.[49]
Russian forces persevered offensive operations within the Chasiv Yar path however didn’t make any showed advances on December 27. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have cleared Ukrainian forces from a space close to the lake in Pivichnyi Microraion (northern Chasiv Yar) and are advancing into the central a part of the microraion.[50] ISW has no longer seen affirmation of this declare, then again. Russian forces persevered attacking in Chasiv Yar itself; north of Chasiv Yar close to Hryhorivka; east of Chasiv Yar close to Ivanivske; southeast of Chasiv Yar close to Kurdyumivka and Klishchiivka; and south of Chasiv Yar close to Stupochky, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and Bila Hora.[51] A Ukrainian brigade running within the house revealed photos on December 27 appearing Ukrainian forces putting Russian armored automobiles close to Kurdyumivka and reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a discounted company-sized mechanized attack close to the agreement.[52] Every other Ukrainian brigade running within the Chasiv Yar path posted photos on December 27 appearing Ukrainian forces repelling a platoon-sized mechanized attack close to Ivanivske and Klishchiivka.[53] Russian milbloggers claimed that preventing continues for the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar.[54] Components of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Department are reportedly running in Chasiv Yar and drone components of the 112th Rifle Regiment (114th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 51st CAA, previously the first Donetsk Folks’s Republic Military Corps [DNR AC]) are reportedly running close to Ivanivske.[55]
Russian forces currently complex within the Toretsk path amid persevered offensive operations on December 27. Geolocated photos revealed between December 25 and 27 signifies that Russian forces marginally complex as much as Saratovska Side road in northern Toretsk, as much as the central marketplace and Hirnychoryatuvalna Side road in central Toretsk, and alongside Khyzhnyaka Side road in western Toretsk.[56] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complex 300 meters towards the Toretsk mine and a couple of.2 kilometers in Shcherbynivka (west of Toretsk), and every other Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces proceed to advance close to the Tsentralna mine in central Toretsk.[57] ISW has no longer seen affirmation of those claims, then again. Russian forces persevered attacking in Toretsk itself, northeast of Toretsk close to Dyliivka, and west of Toretsk close to Shcherbynivka on December 26 and 27.[58] Drone components of the Russian eightieth “Sparta” Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (51st CAA, DNR AC) and components of the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) reportedly proceed to perform within the Toretsk path.[59]
Russian forces currently complex south of Pokrovsk amid ongoing offensive operations within the Pokrovsk path on December 27. Geolocated photos revealed on December 27 signifies that Russian forces currently complex into japanese Novoyelyzavetivka (south of Pokrovsk).[60] Ukrainian army observer Kostyantyn Mashovets mentioned that components of the Russian ninetieth Tank Department’s (forty first CAA, Central Army District [CMD]) 238th and eightieth tank regiments and 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment currently complex to Novoyelyzavetivka and seized Ukrainka and Novoolenivka (east of Novoyelyvzvetivka and south of Pokrovsk).[61] Russian milbloggers additionally claimed that Russian forces seized Ukrainka and Novoolenivka and complex close to Lysivka (southeast of Pokrovsk) and one kilometer close to Dachenske (simply southwest of Lysivka).[62] A Russian milblogger claimed that components of the Russian thirtieth Motorized Rifle Brigade (second CAA, CMD) additionally participated within the seizure of Novoolenivka.[63] Mashovets mentioned that components of the 239th Tank Regiment and the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (twenty seventh Motorized Rife Department, second CAA, CMD) most probably with strengthen from components of the recently-formed 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade (forty first CAA) currently complex close to Pishchane and as much as Novovasylivka (each north of Novoyelizavetivka and southwest of Pokrovsk).[64] A Ukrainian battalion posted photos claiming to turn Russian forces undertaking a motorized attack with one armored car and 7 civilian automobiles purportedly in an unspecified house of the Pokrovsk path.[65] Russian forces persevered offensive operations close to Pokrovsk itself; northeast of Pokrovsk close to Vozdvyzhenka and Myrolyubivka; east of Pokrovsk close to Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk close to Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk close to Zelene, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, and Pishchane; and southwest of Pokrovsk close to Vovkove, Novoolenivka, Novotroitske, Novovasylivka, and Novoyelyzavetivka on December 26 and 27.[66] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Shevchenko.[67]
Russian forces persevered offensive operations within the Kurakhove path on December 27. Mashovets mentioned that components of the Russian twentieth Motorized Rifle Department (eighth CAA, Southern Army District [SMD]) currently marginally complex south of Kurakhove and that components of the ninetieth Tank Department’s eightieth and sixth tank regiments and 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment strengthened with components of the 67th Separate Rifle Regiment (in all probability a reformed Soviet-era unit) and the 87th Separate Rifle Regiment (1st “Slavic” Motorized Rifle Brigade, 51st CAA) are suffering to advance alongside the Zorya-Sontsivka line (northwest of Kurakhove).[68] The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade running within the Kurakhove path reported that Russian forces are struggling important manpower losses within the Kurakhove path and that Russian gadgets are rising much less fight succesful on this path.[69] The spokesperson mentioned that Russian forces are running armored automobiles some distance from the frontline on this house and are generally the usage of armored automobiles to ship infantry to frontline positions, a stark departure from Russian forces’ common mechanized attacks within the Kurakhove path between June and October 2024.[70] Russian forces persevered offensive operations close to Kurakhove itself; northwest of Kurakhove close to Slovyanka and Petropavlivka and within the path of Andriivka; west of Kurakhove close to Dachne; and south of Kurakhove close to Dalne on December 26 and 27.[71]
Russian forces currently complex northwest of Vuhledar amid ongoing offensive operations within the Vuhledar path on December 27. Geolocated photos revealed on December 26 signifies that Russian forces currently complex within the fields southeast of Rozlyv (northwest of Vuhledar).[72] Mashovets mentioned that components of the Russian thirty sixth Motorized Rifle Brigade (twenty ninth CAA, Japanese Army District [EMD]), thirty ninth Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AC, EMD), 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA), 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade (fifth CAA, EMD), and 18th Gadget Gun-Artillery Department (68th AC, EMD) are unsuccessfully making an attempt to pass the Sukhyi Yaly River within the Vuhledar path.[73] Russian forces persevered attacks northwest of Vuhledar close to Kostyantynopolske, Uspenivka, Yantarne, Sukhyi Yaly, Zelenivka, Kostyantynopil, and Rozlyv on December 26 and 27.[74] Components of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian Common Workforce’s Major Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly running alongside the Sukhyi Yaly River, and drone operators of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (twentieth Motorized Rifle Department) are reportedly running within the Kurakhove path.[75]
Russian forces currently complex southwest of Velyka Novosilka amid ongoing offensive operations within the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border house on December 27. Geolocated photos revealed on December 26 signifies that Russian forces currently complex west of Vremivka (southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and reduce the O-0510 Velyka Novosilka-Hulyaipole highway.[76] A Russian milblogger claimed that components of the Russian sixtieth Motorized Rifle Brigade (fifth CAA, EMD) broke thru to the street.[77] Mashovets mentioned that components of the Russian fortieth Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, EMD) and 336th Naval Infantry Brigade (Baltic Fleet, Leningrad Army District [LMD]) are operating to chop Ukraine’s flooring traces of conversation (GLOCs) close to Novyi Komar (north of Velyka Novosilka) and Rozdolne (northeast of Velyka Novosilka).[78] Mashovets added that components of the Russian thirty seventh Motorized Rifle Brigade (thirty sixth CAA, EMD) and fifth Tank Brigade (thirty sixth CAA) have entered unspecified spaces of Velyka Novosilka from the east and southeast and that components of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Department (fifth CAA, EMD) and sixtieth Motorized Rifle Brigade are collaborating in attacks to chop the O-0510 freeway. Further geolocated photos revealed on December 24 signifies that Ukrainian forces currently repelled a platoon-sized Russian mechanized attack east of Novyi Komar (north of Velyka Novosilka).[79] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces additionally complex southwest of Velyka Novosilka close to Ukrainian positions north of Marfopil and south of Malynivka, however ISW has no longer seen affirmation of those claims.[80] Russian forces persevered attacks northeast of Velyka Novosilka close to Rozdolne; north of Velyka Novosilka close to Novyi Komar; and southwest of Velyka Novosilka close to Vremivka and Novodarivka on December 26 and 27.[81] Components of the Russian 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade (fifth CAA, EMD) are reportedly running within the Vremivka (Velyka Novosilka) path.[82] Russian milbloggers posted photos on December 26 claiming to turn Russian forces undertaking a flow bomb moves in opposition to a bridge in Velyka Novosilka.[83]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian goal: Handle frontline positions and protected rear spaces in opposition to Ukrainian moves)
Russian forces persevered offensive operations in western Zaporizhia on December 27 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian forces persevered attacking northwest of Robotyne close to Novoandriivka and Kamyanske (northwest of Robotyne and south of Zaporizhia Town) on December 26 and 27.[84] Ukrainian Tavriisk Staff of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn mentioned on December 27 that Russian forces are deploying drones hooked up to fiber optic cables within the Zaporizhia path which can be extremely resilient to Ukrainian digital conflict (EW) interference.[85]
Russian forces persevered attacks within the Dnipro path and at the islands within the Dnipro River Delta on December 26 and 27 so as to grab the Kozatskyi Island (north of Kherson Town) and likewise attacked the Velykyi Potemkin Island (south of Kherson Town) however didn’t make any showed advances.[86]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign (Russian Function: Goal Ukrainian army and civilian infrastructure within the rear and at the frontline)
Russian forces carried out a restricted collection of missile and drone moves in opposition to Ukraine at the evening of December 26 to 27. The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported that Russian forces introduced two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 24 Shahed and different strike drones from Oryol and Bryansk oblasts and Millerovo, Rostov Oblast.[87] The Ukrainian Air Pressure mentioned that Ukrainian forces downed 13 drones over Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk oblasts and that 11 Russian decoy drones have been ”in the neighborhood misplaced,” most probably because of Ukrainian digital conflict (EW) interference, and didn’t reason any injury. Zaporizhia Oblast Army Management Head Ivan Fedorov mentioned on December 27 that Russian forces struck the commercial house in Zaporizhzhia Town, in all probability with an unspecified missile.[88]
Russian Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Extend fight energy with out undertaking basic mobilization)
Russian federal topics (areas) are proceeding to extend the price of enlistment bonuses to incentivize army recruitment. Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev introduced December 26 that the area is providing a three.6 million ruble ($34,000) enlistment bonus for every recruit eager about signing a Russian army carrier contract between January 1, 2025 and February 1, 2025.[89] Samara Oblast currently larger one-time enlistment bonus from 1.2 million rubles ($11,357) to 2 million rubles ($18,912) in October 2024, and those widespread monetary will increase most probably point out that Samara Oblast is dealing with demanding situations to recruit staff.[90]
Russian career officers are proceeding to shape new BARS (Russian Battle Military Reserve) gadgets so as to construct out long-term territorial defenses in occupied territories. Crimean career head Sergei Aksyonov reported on December 27 that Crimean-based BARS-Krym unit participated within the large-scale territorial protection workout routines training anti-sabotage operations in occupied Chornomorsky Raion, Crimea.[91]
Russian opposition outlet Mediazona reported that Russian courts opened 10,308 legal instances in opposition to people who refused to serve within the Russian Armed Forces in 2024 – plenty of instances in 2024 is just about two occasions greater than in 2023.[92] Mediazona reported that Russian government opened 5,517 legal instances in 2023 and 16,120 legal instances for the reason that get started of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Mediazona reported that Moscow Oblast had the easiest selection of legal instances in opposition to people refusing to struggle in Ukraine with 1,041 legal instances, and that the document excessive selection of opened instances in opposition to army carrier refusals in a single month passed off July 2024.
Ukrainian outlet Informatsiynyi Soprotyv (Informational Resistance) reported on December 27 that Russian forces were the usage of 122mm – ZOF56IM1-1 artillery ammunition since 2023 that resemble 122mm high-explosive fragmentation ammunition for Chinese language-made Sort 96 howitzers.[93] Informatsiynyi Soprotyv famous that the Russian ammunition is the same the form, colour, and shell bins of Chinese language-made ammunition. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell advised journalists on September 10 that Beijing used to be supplying Moscow with unspecified parts that unambiguously strengthen Russia’s army in alternate for get entry to to complex Russian army era.[94]
Russian Technological Variations (Russian goal: Introduce technological inventions to optimize techniques to be used in Ukraine)
Alexei Rogozin, son of former Russian house company Roscosmos head and Zaporizhia Oblast career senator Dmitry Rogozin, mentioned that Russian forces have no longer but advanced or built-in the usage of drone swarms at the battlefield. Rogozhin mentioned that Russia is not able to verify the strong interplay between a couple of drones as a result of such swarms require advanced algorithms which can be immune to any screw ups or interference. Rogozhin mentioned that Russia will sooner or later increase this capacity out of necessity in 2025.[95] A former Russian Typhoon Z trainer and milblogger spoke back to Rogozhin claiming that Ukraine’s drone benefit will proceed to have an effect on the frontline and that Ukrainian forces were the usage of teams of 3-10 drones in opposition to Russian infantry and armored automobiles since Might 2024.[96]
[97]
Director of the Russian startup corporation “Starolink” Nichoas Oksman introduced on December 23 that Russia started prototype manufacturing for pseudo-satellite aircraft-type drones which can be anticipated in an effort to fly into the stratosphere with an altitude of 18 to twenty-five kilometers.[98] Oksman added that those drones may have a wingspan of 40 meters, a cruising velocity of 120 to 140 kilometers in keeping with hour, weigh 315 kilograms, and lift as much as a 40 kilogram payload.[99]
The “Middle for the Building and Implementation of Cutting edge Answers” (Tsentr RiVir) advised Kremlin newswire TASS on December 23 that it had examined the compact 1.5 kilogram Adeliks-10 vertical take-off and touchdown (VTOL) drone which may also be in a position for flight in not up to 5 mins, can fly for 45 mins with a spread as much as 40 kilometers, and will cruise at a velocity of 65 kilometers in keeping with hour and fly at speeds as much as 120 kilometers in keeping with hour.[100]
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces (Russian goal: Consolidate administrative management of annexed spaces; forcibly combine Ukrainian voters into Russian sociocultural, financial, army, and governance techniques)
ISW isn’t publishing protection of actions in Russian-occupied spaces as of late.
Important process in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its army presence in Belarus and additional combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)
Not anything important to file.
Be aware: ISW does no longer obtain any labeled subject matter from any supply, makes use of handiest publicly to be had knowledge, and attracts widely on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially to be had satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial records as the foundation for those experiences. References to all resources used are equipped within the endnotes of every replace.
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