Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, January 8, 2025
Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan
January 8, 2025, 5pm ET
Click on right here to look ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day along the static maps provide on this file.
Click on right here to look ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast.
Click on right here to look ISW’s 3-d management of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a pc (no longer a cell tool) is strongly really useful for the use of this data-heavy software.
Click on right here to get admission to ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those maps supplement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces day by day by way of appearing a dynamic frontline. ISW will replace this time-lapse map archive per month.
Be aware: The information cut-off for this product was once 12:15pm ET on January 8. ISW will quilt next studies within the January 9 Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation.
Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s state-owned Kombinat Kristal oil garage facility close to Engels, Saratov Oblast at the evening of January 7 to eight. The Ukrainian Normal Body of workers reported that Ukraine’s Major Army Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and the Unmanned Programs Forces struck the oil garage facility and brought about a big hearth.[1] The Ukrainian Normal Body of workers reported that the power supplies gasoline for the Russian army’s Engels-2 Air Base and famous that strike will create logistical problems for Russia’s strategic plane based totally on the airfield. Geolocated pictures printed on January 8 displays a big hearth on the garage facility, and Russian resources famous that the fireplace persevered to burn into the morning of January 8.[2] Saratov Oblast Governor Roman Busargin claimed that particles from a falling drone struck an unspecified business facility close to Engels however later stated that the strike brought about a fireplace within the house.[3]
Ukrainian forces struck a command submit of the Russian eighth Mixed Palms Military (CAA) (Southern Army District [SMD]) on January 8 in occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast.[4] The Ukrainian Normal Body of workers reported that the eighth CAA used this command submit to coordinate operations in Kurakhove.[5] Russian resources amplified studies on January 8 {that a} Ukrainian purported Typhoon Shadow strike in opposition to Lgov, Kursk Oblast on December 30 killed no less than one serviceman within the Russian 104th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (76th VDV Department) and 3 servicemen within the 76th VDV Department.[6]
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s state-owned Kombinat Kristal oil garage facility close to Engels, Saratov Oblast at the evening of January 7 to eight.
Ukrainian forces struck a command submit of the Russian eighth Mixed Palms Military (CAA) (Southern Army District [SMD]) on January 8 in occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces complicated in Kursk Oblast, in Toretsk, and close to Kurakhove.
Russian forces are more and more the use of drones hooked up to fiber optic cables in Ukraine.
We don’t file intimately on Russian warfare crimes as a result of those actions are well-covered in Western media and do indirectly have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We can proceed to guage and file at the results of those felony actions at the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and in particular on battle in Ukrainian city spaces. We completely condemn Russian violations of the regulations of armed warfare and the Geneva Conventions and crimes in opposition to humanity although we don’t describe them in those studies.
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian Major Effort – Jap Ukraine (produced from 3 subordinate primary efforts)
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces again from the global border with Belgorod Oblast and option to inside of tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #2 – Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into jap Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #3 – Seize the whole lot of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign
Russian Mobilization and Pressure Era Efforts
Russian Technological Variations
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces
Vital Task in Belarus
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian forces just lately complicated within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid persevered offensive operations within the house on January 8. Geolocated pictures printed on January 8 signifies that Russian forces complicated into western Nikolaevka (northwest of Sudzha) and marginally complicated in Makhnovka (southeast of Sudzha).[7] Ukraine’s Particular Operations Forces (SSO) reported on January 8 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian more or less bolstered platoon-sized mechanized attack in an unspecified house in Kursk Oblast.[8] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces complicated northwest of Sudzha close to Malaya Loknya, Nikolayevka, Staraya Sorochina, Orlovka, and Nikolayevo-Darino; northeast of Sudzha close to Russkoye Porechnoye and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye; east of Sudzha close to Bondarevka; and southeast of Sudzha close to Makhnovka.[9] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces seized Kositsa (northeast of Sudzha) and that parts of the Russian thirty fourth Motorized Rifle Brigade (forty ninth Mixed Palms Military [CAA], Southern Army District [SMD]) are clearing Pogrebki (northwest of Sudzha).[10] ISW has no longer seen visible affirmation of any of those claims, on the other hand. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Pogrebki.[11] Parts of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Department are reportedly running within the path of Sverdlikhovo (northwest of Sudzha).[12]
Russian Major Effort – Jap Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian function: Push Ukrainian forces again from the global border with Belgorod Oblast and option to inside of tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town)
Russian forces persevered restricted floor assaults northeast of Kharkiv Town close to Vovchansk and Tykhe on January 7 and eight however didn’t make any showed advances.[13]
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian function: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into jap Kharkiv Oblast and northerly Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces persevered offensive operations within the Kupyansk path on January 8 however didn’t make any showed advances. Ukrainian army observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said that the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Department (sixth Mixed Palms Military [CAA], Leningrad Army District [LMD]) marginally complicated south of Dvorichna (northeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces complicated alongside the Dvorichna-Kupyansk freeway in opposition to Zapadne (southwest of Dvorichna and northwest of Kupyansk).[14] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complicated north of Dvorichna, however ISW has no longer seen visible affirmation of this declare.[15] Russian forces attacked north of Kupyansk close to Holubivka and northeast of Kupyansk close to Topoli (alongside the global border) and Petropavlivka on January 7 and eight.[16] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian drone operators are in a position to interdict Ukrainian floor traces of conversation (GLOCs) close to Dvorichna.[17] The milblogger additionally claimed that Russian air moves destroyed a river crossing close to Kupyansk.
Russian forces persevered offensive operations within the Borova path on January 8 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian mechanized devices seized two forested spaces and cleared Ukrainian forces from positions between Zahryzove and Lozova (each northeast of Borova) and complicated west of Makiivka (southeast of Borova).[18] One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are 5 kilometers from Borova, however ISW assesses that Russian forces have complicated more or less 12 kilometers from Borova as of January 8.[19] Geolocated pictures printed on January 7 displays a lone Ukrainian armored car briefly advancing into after which backing out from Kolisnykivka (northeast of Borova) with out encountering Russian forces, indicating that Russian forces would possibly not hang positions all the way through the agreement.[20] Mashovets said that parts of the Russian 2d Motorized Rifle Department and the forty seventh Tank Department (either one of the first Guards Tank Military [GTA], Moscow Army District [MMD]) are advancing at the east (left) financial institution of the Oskil River, in all probability relating to the phase of the financial institution of the Oskil River close to Kolisnykiva.[21] Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova close to Zahryzove; east of Borova close to Nadiya, Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, and Pershotravneve; and southeast of Borova close to Novoserhiivka, Cherneshchyna, and Makiivka on January 7 and eight.[22] Drone operators of the Russian sixteenth Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian Normal Body of workers’s Major Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly running close to Raihorodka (east of Borova).[23]
Russian forces persevered offensive operations within the Lyman path on January 8 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed on January 7 and eight that Russian forces complicated in opposition to Kolodyazi and Myrne (each northeast of Lyman) alongside the west (proper) financial institution of the Zherebets River.[24] ISW these days assesses that Russian forces are about 3.5 kilometers from Kolodyazi and has no longer seen visible affirmation of those claims. Russian forces persevered floor assaults northeast of Lyman close to Ivanivka, Kolodyazi, Terny, and Zarichne on January 7 and eight.[25]
Russian Subordinate Major Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian function: Seize the whole lot of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces persevered offensive operations close to Bilohorivka (northeast of Siversk) on January 7 and eight however didn’t make any showed advances.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed on January 8 that Russian forces are steadily advancing south of Verkhnokamyanske (east of Siversk), however ISW has no longer seen affirmation of this declare.[27] The commander of a Ukrainian unit running within the Siversk path reported on January 8 that Russian forces are carrying out guided go with the flow bomb moves in opposition to Siversk and close by spaces, once in a while placing one boulevard with three-to-four go with the flow bombs at a time.[28] The commander said that Russian forces are carrying out small infantry attacks all over sessions of freezing temperatures and dangerous climate at crack of dawn and nightfall. The commander added that Russian forces use bikes, buggies, armored cars, and tanks to move infantry to frontline positions.
Russian forces persevered offensive operations within the Chasiv Yar path on January 8 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that parts of the Russian 217th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th VDV Department) complicated to the intersection of Dniprovska and Kovalevskoho streets in central Chasiv Yar and that Russian forces complicated south of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (north of Chasiv Yar).[29] ISW has no longer seen affirmation of those claims, on the other hand. Russian forces persevered attacking close to Chasiv Yar itself; northeast of Chasiv Yar close to Vasyukivka and Bondarne; and south of Chasiv Yar close to Stupochky and Bila Hora on January 7 and eight.[30] Component of the Russian two hundredth Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Military Corps [AC], Leningrad Army District [LMD]) and 331st VDV Regiment (98th VDV Department) are reportedly running close to the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar.[31]
Russian forces persevered to advance in northern and northwestern Toretsk amid ongoing offensive operations within the house on January 8. Geolocated pictures printed on January 7 and eight signifies that Russian forces just lately marginally complicated in northern and northwestern Toretsk.[32] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces complicated close to the Toretsk Mine in northern Toretsk, are clearing Ukrainian forces from Dachne (north of Toretsk), and are attacking in opposition to Dyliivka (north of Toretsk) alongside the railway line.[33] ISW has no longer seen affirmation of those claims, on the other hand. Some other Russian milblogger famous that the Ukrainian pressure grouping in Toretsk has depended on drone operations and restricted cell attack teams to disclaim Russian advances in massive portions of the contested “grey zone” in Toretsk in fresh months however that Russian forces are actually advancing extra swiftly within the agreement.[34] Russian forces persevered offensive operations in Toretsk itself and north of Toretsk close to Dyliivka on January 7 and eight.[35] Parts of the Russian 1st, ninth, and 132nd motorized rifle brigades and eightieth “Sparta” Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (all 51st Mixed Palms Military [CAA], previously 1st Donetsk Other folks’s Republic [DNR] AC) are reportedly running in Toretsk.[36]
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces just lately interdicted the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka freeway northeast of Pokrovsk amid ongoing offensive operations close to Pokrovsk on January 8. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces with armored car reinforce and parts of an unspecified Russian airborne (VDV) unit interdicted the freeway close to Malynivka (northeast of Pokrovsk) on January 7, however ISW has no longer seen affirmation of this declare.[37] Different Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces complicated to the northwestern outskirts of Zvirove (south of Pokrovsk) and that the Russian army command transferred further forces to reinforce attacks on Kotlyne (southwest of Pokrovsk) however characterised Russian advances on this house as “crawling.”[38] Ukrainian army observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said that the Russian army command just lately presented parts of the fifty fifth, thirty fifth, 137th, and 74th motorized rifle brigades (forty first CAA, Central Army District [CMD]) into battle south of Pokrovsk underneath the command of the ninetieth Tank Department (forty first CAA) and twenty seventh Motorized Rifle Brigade (2d CAA, CMD).[39] Mashovets said that Russian forces additionally just lately presented an unspecified motorized rifle regiment into battle close to Vozdvyzhenka (east of Pokrovsk). The body of workers sergeant of a Ukrainian brigade running within the Pokrovsk path said that Russian forces just lately intensified offensive operations south of Myrnohrad (simply east of Pokrovsk), transferred contemporary forces to this house, and are the use of civilian cars to move infantry to frontline positions for attacks.[40] A Ukrainian supply said that Russian forces are moving unspecified devices from the Kurakhove path to the neighborhood of Myrnohrad.[41] Russian forces persevered offensive operations close to Pokrovsk itself; east of Pokrovsk close to Myrolyubivka, Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, Tarasivka, and Vodyane Druhe; southeast of Pokrovsk close to Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar; south of Pokrovsk close to Zelene, Novyi Trud, and Zvirove; and southwest of Pokrovsk close to Kotlyne, Nadezhdynka, Novovasylivka, and Yasenove on January 7 and eight.[42] Parts of the Russian 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment (twenty seventh Motorized Rifle Department, 2d CAA, CMD) and the 907th Reconnaissance Battalion are reportedly running close to Pokrovsk.[43]
Russian forces just lately marginally complicated within the Kurakhove path amid persevered offensive operations within the house on January 8. Geolocated pictures printed on January 7 signifies that Russian forces just lately marginally complicated east of Dachne (west of Kurakhove).[44] Russian forces persevered attacking close to Kurakhove itself; northwest of Kurakhove close to Shevchenko, Petropavlivka, Slovyanka, and Sribne; west of Kurakhove close to Dachne, Kostyantynopil, Andriivka, and Ulakly; and southwest of Kurakhove close to Kostyantynopolske, Yantarne, and Rozlyv on January 7 and eight.[45] Mashovets said that parts of the Russian sixth and eightieth tank regiments and 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment (all ninetieth Tank Department, forty first CAA, CMD) proceed running within the Slovyanka-Petropavlivka house.[46] Parts of the Russian 68th Tank Regiment and 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (each one hundred and fiftieth Motorized Rifle Department, eighth CAA, Southern Army District [SMD]) are reportedly running close to Kurakhove.[47]
Russian forces persevered offensive operations south of Velyka Novosilka close to Vremivka and west of Velyka Novosilka close to Novosilka on January 8 however didn’t make showed advances within the house.[48] Mashovets said that parts of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Brigade (fifth CAA, Jap Army District [EMD]) are attacking Velyka Novosilka from the southwest and are looking to advance alongside the Velyka Novosilka-Hulyaipole highway.[49]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian function: Deal with frontline positions and safe rear spaces in opposition to Ukrainian moves)
Russian forces persevered offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on January 8 however didn’t make any showed advances. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade running within the Orikhiv path reported on January 8 that Russian forces are carrying out small infantry attacks a number of occasions in keeping with day in an try to determine weaknesses in Ukrainian defensive traces.[50] The spokesperson added that Russian forces are in large part no longer the use of armored cars in attacks on this house. The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) said that parts of the Russian BARS-11 “Kuban” Detachment (Russian Fight Military Reserve) are coaching in a rear house within the Zaporizhia path to arrange for long run battle operations close to Orikhiv.[51] Parts of the Russian BARS-Sarmat Detachment (Russian Fight Military Reserve) and the seventh Airborne (VDV) Department are reportedly running within the Kamyanske path (northwest of Robotyne).[52]
Ukrainian and Russian resources said on January 8 that Ukrainian forces introduced a missile strike in opposition to an empty oil garage facility close to the port in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.[53] ISW has no longer seen pictures of the strike.
Russian forces persevered attacks within the Dnipro path, together with close to Kozatskyi Island (northeast of Kherson Town close to Nova Kakhovka) and Velykyi Potomkin Island (south of Kherson Town) on January 7 and eight however didn’t make any showed advances within the house.[54] Parts of the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade (forty ninth Mixed Palms Military [CAA], Southern Army District [SMD]) and the eightieth Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Military Corps [AC], Leningrad Army District [LMD]) are reportedly running in Kherson Oblast.[55]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign (Russian Goal: Goal Ukrainian army and civilian infrastructure within the rear and at the frontline)
Russian forces performed a sequence of drone moves in opposition to Ukraine at the evening of January 7 to eight. The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported on January 8 that Russian forces introduced 64 Shahed and decoy drones from Oryol, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[56] The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported that Ukrainian forces downed 41 drones over Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad oblasts; that 22 decoy drones had been “misplaced,” most probably because of Ukrainian digital conflict (EW) interference; that 3 drones returned to Russian airspace; and that one drone flew in opposition to Belarusian airspace as of 0900 native time (including as much as 67 drones). The Kyiv Oblast Army Management reported on January 8 that particles from downed Russian drones brought about minor injury to homes in Kyiv Oblast.[57]
Zaporizhia Oblast Army Management Head Ivan Fedorov reported on January 8 that Russian forces performed a go with the flow bomb strike in opposition to an business infrastructure object in Zaporizhzhia Town, killing 13 folks and injuring no less than 63 folks.[58]
Russian Mobilization and Pressure Era Efforts (Russian function: Make bigger battle energy with out carrying out normal mobilization)
Not anything vital to file.
Russian Technological Variations (Russian function: Introduce technological inventions to optimize methods to be used in Ukraine)
Russian forces are more and more the use of drones hooked up to fiber optic cables in Ukraine. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade reported on January 8 that Russian forces are more and more the use of drones hooked up to fiber optic cables which are proof against digital conflict (EW) interference in moves in opposition to Ukrainian forces all the way through the frontline.[59] The spokesperson famous that Russian forces aren’t but systematically using fiber-optic drones and famous that fiber-optic drones are slower and no more maneuverable than first-person view (FPV) drones, making fiber-optic drones extra susceptible to small-arms hearth. A Russian milblogger claimed on January 8 that Russian forces had been the primary to effectively broaden and combine fiber-optic drones into battle operations in Ukraine however cautioned that Ukrainian would quickly broaden identical inventions.[60] The milbloggers added that Russian forces will want to broaden new manner of downing Ukrainian fiber-optic drones.
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces (Russian function: Consolidate administrative management of annexed spaces; forcibly combine Ukrainian voters into Russian sociocultural, financial, army, and governance methods)
ISW isn’t reporting on actions in Russian-occupied spaces nowadays.
Vital job in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its army presence in Belarus and extra combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)
The Belarusian Ministry of Protection (MoD) introduced that Belarusian territorial troops are carrying out workouts from January 8 to 31.[61] ISW assess that those workouts don’t threaten Ukraine.
Be aware: ISW does no longer obtain any categorized subject matter from any supply, makes use of most effective publicly to be had knowledge, and attracts broadly on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially to be had satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial records as the foundation for those studies. References to all resources used are supplied within the endnotes of every replace.
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[59] dot com.ua/2025/01/08/letyuchi-zmiyi-vijny-u-zsu-rozpovily-yak-protydiyut-dronam-na-optyczi/
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