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Institute for the Learn about of Conflict

Institute for the Learn about of Conflict
February 18, 2025


Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Review, February 17, 2025
Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, Kelly Campa, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter
February 17, 2025, 8:15 pm ET

Click on right here to peer ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day along the static maps provide on this file.

Click on right here to peer ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click on right here to peer ISW’s 3-D management of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a pc (no longer a cell software) is strongly beneficial for the usage of this data-heavy instrument.

Click on right here to get right of entry to ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Those maps supplement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces day by day by way of appearing a dynamic frontline. ISW will replace this time-lapse map archive per month.

Notice: The information cut-off for this product was once 12:30pm ET on February 17. ISW will quilt next studies within the February 18 Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Review.

The Kremlin reiterated its calls for that Ukraine cede further territory in jap and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian army at some point whilst proceeding to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any long term peace negotiations. Russian Everlasting Consultant to the United International locations (UN) Vasily Nebenzya mentioned throughout a UN Safety Council assembly on February 17 that Ukraine has “irrevocably misplaced” Crimea, the “Donetsk and Luhansk folks’s republics” (relating to occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts), and Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.[1] Nebenzya insinuated that peace negotiations will have to “right kind” the location in those oblasts and that Ukraine will have to cede the rest portions of the 4 oblasts that Ukraine lately controls. Nebenzya is asking for Ukraine to cede the more or less 30 p.c of the whole house in Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts that Russia does no longer lately occupy. (Russian forces lately occupy more or less 99 p.c of Luhansk Oblast.) Nebenzya additionally demanded that Ukraine grow to be a “demilitarized” impartial state at some point and that Ukraine no longer sign up for any alliances or safety blocs.[2] Russian International Minister Sergei Lavrov pushed aside on February 17 the opportunity of Russia making territorial concessions throughout long term negotiations.[3] Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in June 2024 that Ukraine will have to withdraw its forces from and cede any unoccupied territory in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts to Russia, and Nebenzya seems to be resurrecting this call for forward of bilateral US-Russia negotiations.[4] US Particular Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg mentioned throughout the Munich Safety Convention on February 15 that Russia will have to make territorial concessions throughout negotiations, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio famous on February 16 that US President Donald Trump desires to peer the struggle lead to some way that “protects Ukraine’s sovereignty.”[5]

Lavrov and Nebenzya additionally categorically rejected Eu involvement in long term peace negotiations and accused Eu nations of being competitive towards Russia. Nebenzya claimed that Eu Union (EU) nations and the UK (UK) are “incapable” of achieving any settlement with Russia and can’t be birthday celebration to any long term agreements concerning the struggle in Ukraine.[6] Nebenzya accused Eu nations of being “blinded” by way of Russophobia and unrealistic about peace negotiations. Lavrov puzzled why Eu nations will have to take part in negotiations and insinuated that Eu leaders handiest wish to lengthen the struggle in Ukraine to be able to defeat Russia and get ready for a long term struggle between Russia and Europe.[7] Russian government have in the past centered their knowledge operations towards NATO, accusing the alliance of conspiring and getting ready for a long term struggle with Russia. Russian accusations that Eu nations and the EU extra extensively (implicitly as distinct from the United States) are appearing aggressively against Russia is a notable informational inflection and most likely signifies a brand new Kremlin effort to power a wedge between the United States and Europe making the most of tensions obtrusive on the fresh Munich Safety Convention.[8]

The Kremlin additionally seems to be resurrecting Putin’s earlier calls for and data operations aimed toward delegitimizing Ukraine and its executive within the eyes of the West — significantly forward of the February 18 Russia-US bilateral assembly in Saudi Arabia. Nebenzya reiterated Putin’s call for that Ukraine will have to habits elections ahead of the implementation of any peace agreements, proceeding the Kremlin’s efforts to falsely painting the present Ukrainian executive as illegitimate.[9] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk have additionally not too long ago repeated the Kremlin’s false claims that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is “illegitimate” and implicitly that Russia thus isn’t obligated to honor agreements concluded with the present Ukrainian executive.[10] The Kremlin’s obvious unwillingness to make territorial concessions, decide to honoring any long term peace settlement with Ukraine, or contain any Eu leaders in those negotiations calls into query Putin’s meant willingness to interact in just right religion negotiations that would result in long-term peace in Ukraine and Europe extra extensively.
The Russian delegation collaborating in Russian-American talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on February 18 does no longer come with one of the most individuals of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s innermost circle who have been reported as a most likely negotiator.[11] The Russian delegation entails International Minister Sergei Lavrov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, and CEO of the Russian Direct Funding Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that the talks will focal point on “restoring all of the advanced of US-Russian family members” and getting ready for imaginable long term discussions concerning the struggle in Ukraine between US President Donald Trump and Putin.[12] Peskov added that Lavrov and Ushakov “will be capable of ship pressing studies” to Putin whilst in Riyadh — suggesting that the Russian delegation’s function is to put across messages and tell the Kremlin, somewhat than to barter on Putin’s behalf.[13]

Sergei Lavrov has served because the Russian overseas minister since 2004, however has reportedly been ignored of earlier key Kremlin choices in relation to the Russian invasions of Ukraine.[14] Resources within the Russian Ministry of International Affairs (MFA) informed the BBC in August 2023 that the MFA had no earlier wisdom of the Kremlin’s ultimatums to the United States and NATO in overdue 2021, and the Monetary Occasions (FT) reported in February 2023 that Lavrov discovered concerning the full-scale invasion a couple of hours ahead of it began.[15] Russian milbloggers additionally claimed that the Kremlin didn’t notify Lavrov of Putin’s June 2024 press convention on the MFA throughout which Putin demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the rest territories of 4 Ukrainian oblasts.[16]

Yuri Ushakov has served as Putin’s overseas coverage aide since Would possibly 2012.[17] Ushakov was once Russia’s ambassador to the Group for Safety and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) from 1996 to 1998, served because the Russian Ambassador to the US from 1999-2008, and was Deputy Head of Govt Body of workers from 2008 to 2012.[18] Ushakov publicly pushed aside US and Western intelligence concerning the drawing close Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine as “hysteria” and “absurdity” in early February 2022.[19] Ushakov reportedly participated in early ceasefire talks with Ukraine in a while after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.[20]

Kirill Dmitriev has been CEO of RDIF, a Russian sovereign wealth fund supposed to broaden overseas direct funding in Russia, since its introduction in 2011 and in addition holds positions at the supervisory forums of the state-owned Gazprombank, Transneft, and Russian Railways.[21] Dmitriev studied economics at Stanford and Harvard universities within the Nineteen Nineties and spent his early occupation operating as a expert at McKinsey & Corporate and Goldman Sachs and later ran the Ukrainian funding fund Icon Non-public Fairness from 2007 to 2011.[22] Dmitriev enjoys shut ties with Putin’s circle of relatives, and Dmitriev’s spouse, Natalia Popova, is reportedly an in depth pal and previous classmate of Putin’s daughter, Katerina Tikhonova.[23] Dmitriev has in depth enjoy operating with Center Jap nations, because the RDIF’s companions come with the sovereign wealth price range of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia. Bloomberg, bringing up an individual acquainted with the alternate, reported on February 14 that Dmitriev not too long ago performed a key function in negotiations with US Particular Envoy for the Center East Steve Witkoff to loose American Marc Fogel from Russia.[24] Dmitriev accompanied Putin on his visits to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh in 2023 and Beijing in Would possibly 2024.[25]

A key Putin best friend might be significantly absent from the assembly. Bloomberg reported on February 14 that assets acquainted with the subject mentioned that Russian International Intelligence Provider (SVR) Head Sergei Naryshkin would take part within the Russian delegation going to Saudi Arabia – studies which ended up proving false.[26] Naryshkin is Putin’s shut best friend who reportedly participated in Russia-Ukrainian negotiations in a while after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 and discussions with former CIA director William Burns in Ankara in November 2022.[27] Putin has additionally mentioned that he made up our minds to release Russia’s preliminary invasion of Ukraine in 2014 after consulting with handiest the “leaders of [Russia’s] particular services and products and the protection ministry.”[28] Not one of the individuals of the Russian delegation in Saudi Arabia seem to be some of the closest internal circle that Putin would most likely empower to interact in severe negotiations on his behalf, however Putin would possibly intend to incorporate extra depended on people in long term rounds of talks or can have extra self assurance in those people in those explicit talks.
Ukrainian forces proceed to habits drone moves towards Russian power amenities supplying the Russian army. Head of Ukraine’s Middle for Combatting Disinformation Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Ilsky, Krasnodar Krai on February 17, and that the refinery has an annual refining capability of about 6.6 million lots and makes a speciality of generating gasoline, mazut, bitumen, and gasoline oil.[29] Kovalenko famous that the oil refinery provides Russian forces, specifically in southern Russia and occupied Ukraine. Kovalenko additionally reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station in Kavkazsky Raion, Krasnodar Krai on February 17, and that the station is the biggest pumping station within the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.[30] The consortium showed that seven drones struck the Kropotkinskaya station, main government to take the station out of operation.[31] Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported that assets within the Ukrainian particular services and products mentioned that Ukraine’s Safety Provider (SBU) and Particular Operations Forces (SSO) carried out the drone moves towards the Ilsky Oil Refinery and Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station.[32] Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev claimed that falling drone particles broken properties in Ilsky and Slavyansk-on-Kuban.[33] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed that Russian forces downed 70 drones in a single day, together with 24 drones over Krasnodar Krai.[34]

Russian commanders proceed to present orders for Russian forces to execute Ukrainian prisoners of struggle (POWs) at the frontline. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported on February 17 that photos presentations Russian forces executing 3 surrendering Ukrainian POWs in an unspecified location after a Russian commander orders the warriors to kill two of the POWs.[35] ISW has lengthy assessed that Russian battlefield commanders are both complicit in or enabling their subordinates to execute Ukrainian POWs.[36]

Unspecified assets informed Bloomberg that Russia seems to be nearing a maintain the Syrian intervening time executive to handle a “decreased” army presence in Syria.[37] NOTE: A model of this article additionally seems in ISW-CTP’s February 17 Iran Replace. The assets mentioned that Russia is “shut” to a deal that will stay no less than some group of workers and gear in Syria. One of the crucial assets mentioned that Russia hopes to stay the similar air and naval bases that it used previous to the autumn of Bashar al Assad’s regime, most likely relating to Hmeimim Airbase and the naval base at Tartus. Russia additionally in the past held a number of different airbases inside central and northerly Syria, together with a helicopter base in Qamishli, even though it’s unclear whether or not the settlement will quilt those websites. Russian forces have totally evacuated all their former positions in Syria excluding for Hmeimim Airbase and the Port of Tartus.[38] Different forces, such because the Syrian intervening time executive or US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have taken many of those bases following Russian forces’ evacuation.[39]
The tone of engagement between Russia and the Syrian intervening time executive has significantly grow to be extra cooperative in fresh weeks, which helps the assets’ claims that Russia would possibly have the same opinion with Syria. Syrian Period in-between President Ahmed al Shara emphasised Syria’s “robust strategic courting“ with Russia throughout a up to date telephone name with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12.[40] Period in-between Syrian Protection Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra not too long ago instructed that Syria may permit Russia to retain air and naval bases in Syria if there are “advantages” for Syria.[41] It’s not transparent what “advantages“ Russia is also providing Syria in present negotiations. Russia delivered native Syrian forex to the Syrian central financial institution on February 12 in a gesture that most likely sought to foster goodwill with the Syrian executive.[42] This gesture adopted Syrian officers’ calls for that Russia pay its money owed to the Syrian state and Putin’s be offering to Shara to help with Syria’s economic system.[43]
Unspecified assets additionally informed Bloomberg that Russia may assist with the Syrian executive’s counter-ISIS efforts.[44] It’s unclear in response to this remark whether or not the Syrian intervening time executive has mentioned Russian forces re-deploying to Syria to struggle towards ISIS. The Syrian intervening time executive is most likely keen to procure manpower to help in counter-ISIS operations as the federal government contends with the political and subject matter realities of forming and coaching the brand new Syrian military. Russian participation within the Assad regime marketing campaign towards ISIS didn’t successfully degrade ISIS in Syria, on the other hand. Russian airplane proved to be way more succesful in concentrated on Syrian opposition teams on behalf of the regime than it was once concentrated on ISIS.[45] The size of a long term Russian deployment to Syria would have an effect on the good fortune of any Russian counter-ISIS operations, and it’s unclear if a ”decreased” army presence could be any further efficient towards ISIS than Russian forces have been on the peak of Russian deployments to Syria. US Central Command introduced in July 2024 that ISIS is making an attempt to reconstitute in Syria following a number of years of reduced capacity.[46] Russia would certainly not supply an acceptable alternative for the US or SDF in counter-ISIS operations within the face of ISIS reconstitution efforts.
Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin reiterated its calls for that Ukraine cede further territory in jap and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian army at some point whilst proceeding to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any long term peace negotiations.
Lavrov and Nebenzya additionally categorically rejected Eu involvement in long term peace negotiations and accused Eu nations of being competitive towards Russia.
The Kremlin additionally seems to be resurrecting Putin’s earlier calls for and data operations aimed toward delegitimizing Ukraine and its executive within the eyes of the West – significantly forward of the February 18 Russia-US bilateral assembly in Saudi Arabia.
The Russian delegation collaborating in Russian-American talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on February 18 does no longer come with one of the most individuals of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s innermost circle who have been reported as a most likely negotiator.
Ukrainian forces proceed to habits drone moves towards Russian power amenities supplying the Russian army.
Russian commanders proceed to present orders for Russian forces to execute Ukrainian prisoners of struggle (POWs) at the frontline.
Unspecified assets informed Bloomberg that Russia seems to be nearing a maintain the Syrian intervening time executive to handle a “decreased” army presence in Syria.
Russian forces complicated close to Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Russian career government proceed to violate the Geneva Conference by way of conscripting civilians in occupied Ukraine to serve within the Russian army.
 Institute for the Learn about of Conflict
We don’t file intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of those actions are well-covered in Western media and do indirectly have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We can proceed to judge and file at the results of those prison actions at the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian inhabitants and in particular on struggle in Ukrainian city spaces. We totally condemn Russian violations of the rules of armed battle and the Geneva Conventions and crimes towards humanity despite the fact that we don’t describe them in those studies.

Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Russian Primary Effort – Jap Ukraine (made out of 3 subordinate major efforts)
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces again from the global border with Belgorod Oblast and solution to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #2 – Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into jap Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #3 – Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign
Russian Mobilization and Pressure Era Efforts
Russian Technological Variations
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces
Important Job in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation

Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on February 17 however didn’t make any showed advances. Combating endured northwest of Sudzha close to Nikolsky, west of Sudzha close to Sverdlikovo, and south of Sudzha close to Kurilovka.[47] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked close to Kurilovka.[48]
 
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Sverdlikovo.[49] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces marginally complicated close to Kurilovka and Kamyshevka (north of Sudzha).[50]

Order of Fight: Components of the Russian a hundred and fifty fifth Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) and 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (seventh VDV Department) are reportedly working in Kursk Oblast, and parts of the 1434th “Akhmat-Chechnya” Regiment (subordinated beneath the Russian MoD) are reportedly working close to Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha).[51]

Russian Primary Effort – Jap Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian purpose: Push Ukrainian forces again from the global border with Belgorod Oblast and solution to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv Town)

Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Kharkiv route on February 17 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian forces carried out offensive operations north of Kharkiv Town close to Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv Town close to Vovchansk on February 16 and 17.[52]
 
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complicated east of Vovchansk.[53]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade working within the Kharkiv route mentioned that Russian forces every now and then assault in fireteams of 2 to a few folks and that Russian forces are most commonly transferring in golfing carts, small armored automobiles, and civilian automobiles.[54] The spokesperson mentioned that Russian forces very infrequently use medium-armored automobiles to move infantry.
Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian purpose: Seize the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into jap Kharkiv Oblast and northerly Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces endured offensive operations close to Kupyansk on February 17 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian forces attacked northeast of Kupyansk towards Dovhenke and Doroshivka; east of Kupyansk close to Petropavlivka and Stepova Novoselivka; southeast of Kupyansk close to Pishchane; and south of Kupyansk close to Hlushkivka and towards Novoosynove on February 16 and 17.[55] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed on February 17 that Russian forces seized Fyholivka (north of Kupyansk), however ISW assessed that Russian forces seized the agreement as of February 6.[56]
 
Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed studies that Russian forces seized Topoli (north of Kupyansk close to the global border) and that Russian forces seized maximum of Dvorichna (north of Kupyansk).[57] Different Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces complicated north of Dvorichna, between Dvorichna and Zapadne (simply southwest of Dvorichna), south of Zapadne, and west of Kalynove (north of Kupyansk).[58]

Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Borova route on February 17 however didn’t advance. Russian forces endured assaults north of Borova towards Novoplatonivka; northeast of Borova close to Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, and Nova Kruhlyakivka; and southeast of Borova close to Novoserhiivka, Novoyehorivka, and Hrekivka on February 16 and 17.[59] Ukraine’s Khortytsia Team of Forces reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed two Russian armored automobiles that attacked against Bohuslavka and 4 armored automobiles that attacked close to Nova Kruhlyakivka.[60]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade working in Kharkiv Oblast mentioned on February 16 that Russian forces are the usage of extra automobiles and armored automobiles to beef up offensive operations however famous that Ukrainian forces are destroying most of the automobiles.[61] The spokesperson mentioned that Russian forces also are working between 200 and 300 drones consistent with day within the brigade’s house of accountability, however that Ukrainian digital struggle (EW) programs are complicating Russian drone operations.
Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Lyman route on February 17 however didn’t advance. Russian forces endured assaults northeast of Lyman close to Novomykhailivka, Novolyubivka, Zarichne, Kolodyazi, and Yampolivka and towards Nove and east of Lyman within the Serebryanske wooded area house on February 16 and 17.[62]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complicated close to Yampolivka.[63]

Russian Subordinate Primary Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian purpose: Seize everything of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces endured offensive operations within the Siversk route on February 17 however didn’t advance. Russian forces endured attacks north of Siversk close to Hryhorivka and towards Dronivka, east of Siversk close to Verkhnokamyanske, and southeast of Siversk close to Ivano-Darivka on February 16 and 17.[64]
 
Order of Fight: Components of the Russian 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (third Blended Fingers Military [CAA], previously the second Luhansk Other people’s Republic Military Corps [LNR AC], Southern Army District [SMD]) reportedly proceed to function within the Siversk route.[65]

Russian forces endured offensive operations close to Chasiv Yar on February 17 however didn’t make any showed advances. Russian forces attacked close to and inside Chasiv Yar itself, northeast of Chasiv Yar close to Vasyukivka, and south of Chasiv Yar close to Stupochky on February 16 and 17.[66] Ukraine’s Khortytsia Team of Forces reported that Russian forces close to Vasyukivka are the usage of civilian automobiles and bikes to move infantry and that Ukrainian forces destroyed 10 bikes and one civilian automobile within the house.[67]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: Russian milbloggers claimed on February 17 that Russian forces entered Stupochky and complicated inside northeastern Chasiv Yar.[68]

Order of Fight: Components of the Russian 299th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th VDV Department) are reportedly working close to Chasiv Yar, and drone parts of the twenty seventh Artillery Regiment (sixth Motorized Rifle Department, third AC) are reportedly undertaking reconnaissance close to Bila Hora (south of Chasiv Yar).[69]

Russian forces not too long ago complicated within the Toretsk route. Russian forces endured attacking in Toretsk itself; north of Toretsk close to Krymske and west of Toretsk close to Shcherbynivka, Novospaske (previously Petrivka), and Leonidivka on February 16 and 17.[70] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking close to Shcherbynivka and inside Toretsk.[71]
 
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos printed on February 13 and 15 signifies that Russian forces not too long ago complicated southwest of Leonidivka and alongside Zhovtneva Boulevard in northern Toretsk, respectively.[72]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces complicated close to Shcherbynivka.[73] Donetsk Other people’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed that Russian forces seized the Kleban-Byk Panorama Park (northwest of Toretsk), even if Russian milbloggers puzzled this declare given the park’s measurement and distance from the frontline.[74]

Russian forces not too long ago complicated within the Pokrovsk route. Russian forces endured flooring assaults northeast of Pokrovsk close to Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, and Malynivka; east of Pokrovsk close to Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk close to Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk close to Novoukrainka; and southwest of Pokrovsk close to Zvirove, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Udachne, Uspenivka, Nadiivka, Yasenove, and Zaporizhzhia on February 16 and 17.[75] Russian assets claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Pishchane, close to Lysivka and Kotlyne, and northeast of Shevchenko (south of Pokrovsk).[76]
 
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos printed on February 17 signifies that Russian forces not too long ago complicated at the jap outskirts of Pishchane.[77]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Pishchane after attacking the agreement from the north and south.[78] One milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces handle positions in northern Pishchane, on the other hand.[79] Russian assets claimed that Russian forces entered Preobrazhenka (southwest of Pokrovsk) and Tarasivka and complicated close to Uspenivka and Udachne, in southern Kotlyne, and east of Pishchane.[80]

Order of Fight: Components of the Russian thirtieth Motorized Rifle Brigade (second CAA, Central Army District [CMD]) and 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade (forty first CAA, CMD) are reportedly working close to Pishchane.[81]

Russian forces not too long ago complicated west of Kurakhove. Russian forces endured flooring assaults west of Kurakhove close to Oleksiivka, Kostyantynopil, Ulakly, Andriivka, and Dachne and southwest of Kurakhove close to Zelenivka on February 16 and 17 [82] A Ukrainian supply reported that Russian forces carried out a more or less battalion-sized mechanized attack close to Bahatyr (west of Kurakhove) and Ulakly with 40 armored automobiles and 250 group of workers on February 15 and misplaced 39 automobiles – most likely in connection with the new Russian mechanized attack close to Ulakly that ISW seen on February 16.[83] The Ukrainian supply mentioned that Ukrainian forces repelled the attack close to Bahatyr and Kostyantynopil however that Russian forces seized Zelenivka and complicated alongside the H-15 Kurakhove-Dachne-Kostyantynopil freeway.
 
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos printed on February 17 signifies that Russian forces not too long ago complicated in northern Andriivka.[84]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: Russian assets claimed that Russian forces complicated close to Ulakly, 2.4 kilometers close to Zelenivka, and in southern Andriivka.[85]

Order of Fight: Drone parts of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian Basic Body of workers’s Primary Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly working close to Rozlyv (southwest of Kurakhove); drone operators of the second Battalion of the Russian 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (a hundred and fiftieth Motorized Rifle Department, eighth CAA, SMD) are reportedly working close to Dachne; drone operators of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the twentieth Motorized Rifle Department (eighth CAA, SMD) are reportedly working close to Andriivka; and parts of the eighth Anti-Airplane Missile Brigade (fifth CAA, Jap Army District [EMD]) are reportedly working close to Kostyantynopil.[86]

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian advances within the Kurakhove route are permitting the Russian army command to withdraw parts of the eighth CAA from the frontline for relaxation and reconstitution ahead of deploying to different unspecified sectors of the entrance.[87] ISW has not too long ago seen studies that the Russian army command redeployed parts of the eighth CAA from the Kurakhove route to the Toretsk and jap Pokrovsk instructions.[88

Russian forces recently advanced in the Velyka Novosilka direction. Russian forces continued assaults north of Velyka Novosilka near Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate, northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Burlatske, west of Velyka Novosilka near Novosilka, and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Rivnopil on February 16 and 17.[89] Ukraine’s Khortytsia Team of Forces reported on February 16 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian mechanized attack with “tens” of armored automobiles in numerous waves close to Velyka Novosilka and posted photos appearing Ukrainian moves towards no less than 9 Russian automobiles advancing in a column.[90]

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated photos printed on February 16 signifies that Russian forces not too long ago complicated to southern Novosilka throughout a more or less platoon-sized mechanized attack.[91] Further geolocated photos printed on February 16 signifies that Russian forces not too long ago complicated southeast of Novoocheretuvate.[92]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Novosilka and complicated east of the agreement, complicated as much as two kilometers in fields west of Novyi Komar, and entered Novoocheretuvate.[93] Some milbloggers claimed that Russian forces handiest entered Novosilka and didn’t take hold of it, and one milblogger referred to as claims of advance within the house untimely.[94]

Ukraine’s Khortytsia Team of Forces posted photos on February 16 and reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian S-350 “Vityaz” air protection machine in an unspecified house of Donetsk Oblast.[95]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian purpose: Care for frontline positions and safe rear spaces towards Ukrainian moves)

Russian forces endured restricted flooring assaults in western Zaporizhia Oblast on February 17 however didn’t advance. Russian forces carried out offensive operations northwest of Robotyne close to Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Novoandriivka, Pyatykhatky, and Mali Shcherbaky on February 16 and 17.[96]
 
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian assets reported flooring job within the Dnipro route on February 17.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Marketing campaign (Russian Purpose: Goal Ukrainian army and civilian infrastructure within the rear and at the frontline)

Russian forces carried out a sequence of drone moves towards Ukraine at the night time of February 16 to 17. The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported that Russian forces introduced 147 Shahed and decoy drones from Oryol, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast.[97] The Ukrainian Air Pressure reported that Ukrainian forces downed 83 drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa oblasts and that 59 decoy drones have been ”misplaced,” most likely because of Ukrainian digital struggle (EW) interference as of 0900 native time. Ukrainian officers reported that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Zaporizhia oblasts and brought about energy outages in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[98] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that two Russian Su-30 opponents introduced 3 Kh-31P anti-radar missiles from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast at the night time of February 17.[99]

Ukrainian officers mentioned that Ukrainian government extinguished 3 fires within the refuge above the fourth energy unit of the Chornobyl Nuclear Energy Plant (CNPP) as of the morning of February 17 following the February 14 Russian strike at the CNPP and that the moves brought about energy provide issues to apparatus within the New Protected Containment construction.[100]

Russian Mobilization and Pressure Era Efforts (Russian purpose: Enlarge struggle energy with out undertaking normal mobilization)

Not anything important to file.
Russian Technological Variations (Russian purpose: Introduce technological inventions to optimize programs to be used in Ukraine)

Russian forces reportedly used a satellite-controlled “Kukushka” drone for the primary time. Russian milbloggers claimed that parts of the Russian 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (a hundred and fiftieth Motorized Rifle Department, eighth Blended Fingers Military, Southern Army District) used a satellite-controlled drone close to Dachne (west of Kurakhove) and that the drone flew 16 kilometers ahead of losing ammunition weighing 4.5 kilograms on a Ukrainian place and returning to base.[101] Russian milbloggers claimed that the drone can raise a payload of 35 kilograms.
Actions in Russian-occupied spaces (Russian purpose: Consolidate administrative management of annexed spaces; forcibly combine Ukrainian voters into Russian sociocultural, financial, army, and governance programs)

Russian career government proceed to violate the Geneva Conference by way of conscripting civilians in occupied Ukraine to serve within the Russian army. Donetsk Other people’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin signed on February 17 a plan to illegally conscript and teach civilians in occupied Donetsk Oblast to paintings in army registration specialties within the Russian army.[102] The file requires the Russian Volunteer Society for Help to the Military, Aviation, and Army of Russia (DOSAAF) to assist teach and get ready civilians for those specialties, together with thru “braveness courses” with veterans of the wars in Ukraine, Chechnya, and Afghanistan. DOSAAF is a Soviet relic that price range and promotes army carrier for Russian formative years thru military-patriotic programming and army talents methods and sends representatives to army draft forums to allocate conscripts with specialised talents into explicit army roles.[103] Article 51 of the Geneva Conference explicitly prevents an occupying energy from compelling the inhabitants it occupies to serve within the occupying energy’s army.[104]

Important job in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its army presence in Belarus and extra combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

The Russian State Duma will imagine the ratification of the Russian-Belarusian safety treaty on February 18. Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin introduced on February 17 that Duma deputies will speak about on February 18 the ratification of the Union State treaty on safety promises.[105] Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed the treaty on December 6, 2024.[106] ISW assesses that the treaty helps the Kremlin’s strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and increase the Russian army’s presence in Belarus in the course of the auspices of the Union State framework.[107]

Libyan Nationwide Military (LNA) Commander-in-Leader Khalifa Haftar met Belarusian State Safety Committee (KGB) Head Ivan Tertel in Belarus on February 17 to speak about bettering bilateral humanitarian and financial cooperation.[108]

Notice: ISW does no longer obtain any categorised subject matter from any supply, makes use of handiest publicly to be had knowledge, and attracts broadly on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially to be had satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial information as the root for those studies. References to all assets used are equipped within the endnotes of every replace.

 

[1] ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; dot ru/20250217/nebenzya-1999906022.html
[2] ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; dot ru/20250217/nebenzya-1999906022.html
[3] dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/information/1998052/
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[5] ;  
[6] ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; dot ru/20250217/nebenzya-1999906022.html
[7] dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/information/1998052/ ; dot io/information/2025/02/17/esli-oni-budut-vytsyganivat-idei-pro-zamorozku-konflikta-zachem-ih-tuda-priglashat-lavrov-ob-uchastii-evropy-v-peregovorah-o-zavershenii-voyny
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[19] ; dot kremlin.ru/occasions/president/information/67761; dot ru/catalog/individuals/245/occasions/67761/audios
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[21] dot ru/Eng_person_dmitriev_kirill/ ; dot ru/en/politics/264615
[22] dot org/folks/kirill-dmitriev/ ;
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[39] dot com/ar/أخبار/شاهد-انسحاب-رتل-عسكري-روسي-من-قاعدة-صرين-1596073; dot com/middle-east/1762530-تصريح-روسي-بشأن-قاعدتيها-العسكريتين-سوريا-مصيرهما؟;
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[54] dot com.ua/2025/02/17/gra-v-dystanczijnyj-golf-na-harkivshhyni-ukrayinski-bezpilotnyky-nyshhat-voroga-v-jogo-norah/;
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[61] dot media/950023-zelenskij-pribuv-v-emirati-ssa-hocut-domogtisa-pripinenna-vognu-do-velikodna-1090-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1739799129&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=playstation
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[98] dot media/kharkiv/950113-rosia-v-nic-na-17-lutogo-vdarila-sahedami-po-dvoh-rajonah-harkova-postrazdalo-troe-zinok/; dot media/kyiv/950093-odna-ludina-postrazdala-e-poskodzenna-u-kilkoh-rajonah-rosiani-atakuvali-kiivsinu/;
 
[99] dot media/odesa/950155-rf-atakuvala-odesinu-troma-raketami-ta-udarnimi-bpla-podrobici-vid-pk-pivden/;
[100] dot media/kyiv/950449-na-caes-viavili-tri-oseredki-tlinna-gasinna-vidnovili/; dot media/kyiv/950449-na-caes-viavili-tri-oseredki-tlinna-gasinna-vidnovili/
[101] ;
[102] dot ru/document/rasp/rasporiazhglavaN48_17022025.pdf; ; dot com/information/17-02-2025-podgotovka-k-mobilizacii-v-dnr-pushilin-podpisal-rasporyazhenie-o-podgotovke#google_vignette ; dot ru/defence/v-dnr-utverzhden-plan-meroprijatij-po-podgotovke-grazhdan-k-armii.-chto-v-nem/
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