Why It Matters: Support for Ukraine Could be at Risk
Although some U.S. officials are growing supportive of Ukraine’s covert attacks on Russia, concerns remain regarding the possibility of miscalculation by Ukraine in the execution of such operations. Sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines was exactly the sort of operation that would worry the United States – a symbolic attack with little military value that poses a high danger of fracturing the alliance supporting Ukraine.
Up to now, this hasn’t occurred. Despite Germany and other European countries learning of Ukrainian involvement in the pipeline attack, they have still increased their military support.
U.S. officials maintained on Tuesday that they have not established who within the Ukrainian government might have planned or sanctioned the attack. If senior officials are eventually identified, European attitudes concerning support for Ukraine may shift.
Background: Unclear Control of Covert Action Groups in Ukraine
Certain intelligence details, such as the identity of the European country providing the United States this report, were concealed by The Post to secure information sources.
For months after the attack, U.S. officials conceded they were aware of a warning from a European ally regarding a possible pipelines attack, but they did not know who carried it out. Although officials admitted that there was some initial intelligence pointing to Ukraine’s involvement, they claimed it was contradicted by other material. Essentially, they did not think the European warning was part of solid evidence.
As the inquiry continued, U.S. and allied officials became increasingly certain that pro-Ukrainian groups were responsible for the attack, and that factions of the Ukrainian government were involved.
According to The Post, the European intelligence report said that the Ukrainian operatives involved in the pipeline attack were reporting to Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer. But American officials have still not verified General Zaluzhnyi’s involvement. However, they once again stated on Tuesday that they don’t think President Volodymyr Zelensky knew about the attack. Officials have previously described a system established by Ukraine’s government, which insulates Mr. Zelensky from covert action programs.
This permits parts of the Ukrainian government to use pro-Ukrainian groups or pro-Ukrainian sympathizers in Russia to carry out covert attacks, whilst Mr. Zelensky denies responsibility for these actions.
What’s Next: Europe is Still Investigating
The C.I.A. refused to discuss the document or investigation into the attack. John F. Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, stated that he would not speak about intelligence issues, and emphasized that the document “was one that The Washington Post even said was not corroborated by U.S. intelligence agencies.”
Mr. Kirby added that the United States is still awaiting the results of three continuing investigations into the Nord Stream sabotage. Officials assert that the United States is improbable to publicly blame Ukraine for the destruction of the pipelines until after the completion of these investigations.
Aishvarya Kavi contributed reporting.
