BEIRUT (AP) — Both Israel and Lebanon fear the possibility of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah militia, even though it seems inevitable given Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. If it does occur, it could be the most devastating war experienced by both sides. Israel and Hezbollah have both prepared for it since their last war in 2006. The United States is attempting to prevent an escalation of the conflict.
Here’s a look at the readiness of each side, the potential progression of war, and measures taken to prevent it.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2006?
The 2006 conflict was sparked by Hezbollah’s capturing of two Israeli soldiers and subsequent killing of others in a cross-border raid, leading to a full-scale Israeli air and ground offensive aiming to free the hostages and demolish Hezbollah’s military capabilities. The conflict resulted in heavy casualties on both sides and ended in a draw.
HOW PROBABLE IS WAR?
The prospect of an Israel-Hezbollah war has been described as a “total disaster” by the U.N. Secretary-General, with both sides engaging in daily cross-border strikes and escalating tensions following Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7. Both sides have also experienced civilian casualties, and there are no immediate prospects for displaced individuals to return.
HOW PREPARED ARE THEY?
Both Hezbollah and the Israeli military have significantly strengthened their capabilities since 2006, but Lebanon’s public institutions, including its army and infrastructure, have been crippled by a four-year economic crisis, exacerbating their vulnerability in the event of war. Lebanon has adopted an emergency plan projecting the displacement of 1 million Lebanese for 45 days and is seeking international aid to support the response.
HOW WOULD WAR PLAY OUT?
A full-scale war would likely lead to widespread devastation in Lebanon and potentially draw in other regional players, escalating the conflict. Both sides have significant military capabilities and defense systems, but the impact on civilian populations would be severe on both sides.
