The Kremlin is aiming to consolidate its control over the four regions of Ukraine occupied by Moscow, both militarily and politically, through the upcoming regional elections, according to experts and officials interviewed by The Moscow Times.
Russian authorities want to “legitimize” the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson and prevent them from returning to Ukraine. This comes almost a year after Moscow conducted disputed referendums to annex these regions.
Despite the lack of full control and ongoing combat in some areas, the four regions will hold elections to choose local parliaments from Sept. 10 onwards.
“The main goal that the Kremlin is aiming to achieve through these elections is to legitimize the authorities and showcase that the residents of these territories are aligning themselves with [Russia],” said a Russian government official. He added that the election campaign is meant to demonstrate the political integration of these regions into Russia.
In addition to seeking legitimacy, the elections are also intended to show the Russian public that the war against Kyiv is proceeding according to plan, according to experts. They believe that the Kremlin wants to address propaganda challenges and emphasize that these regions are already an integral part of Russia.
After the elections, local parliaments will appoint regional and municipal leaders, and residents of the four regions will not have a direct role in selecting their local executive branch. The occupied territories will conduct elections solely through party lists, meaning residents will not be voting for individual candidates.
Although candidates from various political parties, such as United Russia, the Communist Party (KPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), the New People party, and A Just Russia party, feature in the election lists for local parliaments, United Russia is expected to benefit the most. This party has been involved in most actions carried out by the occupying authorities in the territories, such as the distribution of aid and the provision of state benefits and medical assistance.
According to a poll conducted by the Russian state-run VTsIOM, support for United Russia in the occupied territories ranged from 80% to 89% as of last month.
Due to “security concerns,” the full candidate lists have not been published. However, a joint investigation revealed that several candidates have past criminal convictions, including corruption, tax evasion, and robbery, all of which were later cleared.
For example, Igor Bazarny, who is running as part of the LDPR in the Kherson region, was convicted for abuse of authority in a military unit in the Murmansk region in 2020, but his criminal record was expunged.
The candidate lists also feature at least two officials from President Vladimir Putin’s administration, such as Oleg Nesterov and Igor Deryugin.
According to a report by iStories and the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), one-third of candidates in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are housewives, pensioners, students, or unemployed individuals.
Some local candidates, such as Vitaliy Buliuk, have recently changed their stance on the war. Buliuk, who is now running for the Kremlin-backed Kherson parliament, had previously posted “Kherson is Ukraine” just a few months ago.
Although the elections aim to strengthen loyalty to Moscow among the locals, the voting process, which started last week and ends on Sunday, could be extended due to people’s reluctance to participate, according to a source close to the Kremlin.
The source explained, “People are tired of the war and are not eager to go to the polling stations” in the occupied regions. To encourage participation, a few additional days of early voting were added in addition to the three days of regular voting.
The source also pointed out that this election is different from the 2014 referendum in Crimea, as there is less motivation for residents to turn out in large numbers.
AFP
In an attempt to increase voter turnout, residents of the four regions are allowed to use their Russian or Ukrainian passports when participating in the vote.
Ukraine has criticized the elections and urged locals not to participate. The country has reportedly distributed leaflets with messages such as “Ignore the elections” and “Don’t play along with the occupier.”
In response, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry stated that the Kremlin’s organization of fake elections delegitimizes the Russian legal system and called for sanctions against those involved.
However, experts and Russian officials believe that the Kremlin is unlikely to allow any result other than the consolidation of its power.
“The main risk is an escalation of the military situation and the threat of shelling since the territories are a frontline zone,” said the source close to the Kremlin. They added that there is no risk of the ruling United Russia party losing, as the elections are considered to be a sham.
