Back in 2008, young voters were the driving force behind Barack Obama’s presidential victory. However, fifteen years later, those same voters are no longer as young and not nearly as left-leaning as they once were.
In fact, our estimates reveal that in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden secured just 55 percent of the vote among those who were 18 to 29 in 2008. That’s a margin roughly half that of Mr. Obama’s from 12 years earlier. Furthermore, nearly every cohort of voters under 50 has shifted towards the right over the last decade according to an analysis of thousands of survey interviews archived at the Roper Center.
While it is not a surprising finding, it is at odds with recent reports and studies suggesting that voters’ political preferences remain unchanged over time. Despite this, Democrats still appear to be managing to hold ground among millennials and Gen Z, with the Democratic data firm Catalist finding no significant loss among these groups over the last decade.
However, when tracking the same cohort of voters over time, instead of a whole generation with changing composition, a different story emerges. Older millennials who came of age in a different political era appear to have shifted the most towards the right. Many of the issues that drew young voters to the Democrats in previous years are no longer issues at all, and the GOP may have even overturned its former disadvantage on them.
By contrast, the shift to the right among younger voters is more modest, particularly among those who came of age in the era of Black Lives Matter, the Bernie Sanders campaign and Donald J. Trump. These voters may still be influenced by the same issues that initially drew them to the Democratic Party.
It’s possible that the 2024 presidential election will be similar to recent elections, fought over issues such as healthcare and climate change. If this occurs, it could prove to be a fleeting moment of political stability with generational shifts appearing to carry the day. However, it is unlikely to be long-lasting if Donald Trump ends up being the Republican nominee.
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