President Biden has been signaling his intention to run for re-election in 2024, even though it hasn’t been officially announced yet. To analyze his chances, I spoke to several political advisers who’ve run campaigns for Democratic presidents, including Timothy Kraft, Les Francis, James Carville, and David Plouffe.
They agreed that Biden has a strong policy record, especially in relation to the economy, although his age could be a significant factor to overcome. They also preferred a rematch with Donald Trump over a younger, first-time Republican candidate who could draw a more stark generational contrast.
One major concern among these consultants is the country’s growing partisan divide and the dwindling number of swing voters and districts. Black voter turnout, particularly among younger voters, is another concern, with some believing that there has been a failure in communication about the progress made under Biden’s administration.
Carville is also concerned about Republican weaponization of the term “wokeness” and its impact on attracting young black voters. Instead, he believes the focus should be on emphasizing what voters have gained rather than what they will gain.
In conclusion, while Biden has advantages going into the campaign, there are still obstacles to overcome. Fear of the opponent isn’t always an effective voter motivator, and messaging that emphasizes empowerment rather than danger could be more effective in attracting black male voters. As Carville noted, “The most non-woke person is Joe Biden,” even as he’s “become the greatest president for Black America maybe we ever had.”
