The organization No Labels has launched a $70 million project to secure ballot access for a potential third presidential candidate in 2024. The idea behind this is to provide voters with a moderate option in case the two major political parties continue to polarize and become more extreme. No Labels analysts believe that the as-yet-to-be-selected third candidate could win the White House based on their polling data. The electorate is said to be evenly split among those who lean Democratic, those who lean Republican, and the unaffiliated, creating ample space for a third option. Additionally, voters are put off by the prospect of a Donald Trump-Joe Biden rematch. In a No Labels analysis, 59% of voters surveyed said they would consider voting for a third moderate candidate if that happened. No Labels argues that if their candidate wins 61% of this disaffected group, they could win the presidency even if the remaining voters are split between two other candidates.
However, official Washington, especially Democratic Washington, has come down hard on No Labels. The centrist Democratic group Third Way produced a research report concurring with the argument that a third presidential candidate would have no chance of winning. They believe that it would siphon off votes from Democrats and hand the White House back to Donald Trump. This group of analysts point out that no third-party candidate has won any state’s electoral votes since 1968. There is no viable path to achieve the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Therefore, the No Labels candidate would have to carry not just swing states, but also deep-blue states like Maryland and Massachusetts and deep-red ones like Utah and Montana, which is highly unlikely to happen.
In the opinion of some, this is a historic opportunity to repair politics and end the gridlock on issues like guns, abortion, and immigration. Others disagree, and many believe that Democrats need moderates more than Republicans do. There are more conservatives than progressives in America, so Democrats need to get 60% of the self-identified moderate votes to win nationally, compared to Republicans who only need to get 40%. Therefore, taking away moderate votes by supporting a third-party candidate would only help Trump win.
The writer acknowledges the effort by No Labels but does not believe this is a risk worth taking. Joe Biden is seen as a relative moderate who is already willing to do bipartisanship work as president. Therefore, the priority should be defeating Donald Trump, who many view as an unprecedented threat to American democracy. Lastly, the author believes that a third candidate would hurt Biden more, as Trump voters are firmly behind him while Biden voters may waver. Additionally, the “double-haters” group of voters, who dislike both candidates, favors Biden. Given the circumstances, the author thinks this is not the right election for No Labels’ strategy and hopes they will postpone their efforts for four years.
