Shedding Syria Is A ‘Large Slap In The Face’ For Russia

When Vladimir Putin took the reins of continual in a post-Soviet Russia in shambles a quarter-century in the past, he straight away set about restoring Moscow’s standing as an international continual.
It took 15 years, however Russia heralded its army intervention within the Syrian civil warfare as evidence of its go back as a drive to be reckoned with at the global level.
Moscow leveraged that symbol to increase its affect during the Heart East and past as a counterweight to the West.
Now, the autumn of the federal government of President Bashar al-Assad, a key best friend of Moscow, has dealt a significant blow to Russia’s great-power ambitions.
“Putin’s army journey in Syria was once designed to show that Russia is a brilliant continual and will venture its affect in another country,” mentioned Phillip Smyth, a Heart East knowledgeable. “Shedding Syria is a big slap within the face for Putin.”
Assad’s ouster represents now not just a reputational hit to Russia however most probably a significant strategic setback.
Syria is house to 2 primary Russia army installations: an air base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartus. The latter is Russia’s most effective warm-water naval base and offers Moscow get admission to to the Mediterranean Sea.
“Russia has used its bases in Syria to venture its continual each into the jap Mediterranean and into the wider Heart East,” mentioned Smyth.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has Russia’s international ambitions at a crossroads.

Prime-Upkeep Asset
Russia’s army intervention in Syria in 2015 modified the tide of the warfare. Moscow’s devastating aerial campaigns towards rise up positions helped the Syrian Military regain swaths of territory and stay Assad in continual.
Moscow’s Syria marketing campaign got here a 12 months after its invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in addition to its make stronger for separatist forces in Ukraine’s east.
Moscow capitalized on its involvement in each Syria and Ukraine to promote itself as an influence in a position to difficult america, NATO, and the West normally whilst increasing its international achieve from the Mediterranean to Africa and Latin The us.
Following Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Syria turned into extra of an asset for Moscow, professionals say, whilst additionally presenting the problem of keeping up army campaigns on two fronts.
With the expected fall of Russian army belongings in Syria, following the cave in of Assad’s executive, the duty has turn into much more daunting.
Russia is already closely invested in a significant counteroffensive to regain captured territory in its southwestern Kursk area that it misplaced to Ukraine, to the purpose that it’s depending on lend a hand from North Korean troops. On the similar time, it is attempting to take as a lot territory as it might in Ukraine’s east ahead of imaginable peace talks.
Russia army amenities alongside the Mediterranean coast in western Syria might be overrun via militants led via Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated 15 May Organization, and its allies.
Aaron Zelin, senior fellow on the Washington Institute, mentioned Russia merely does now not have the similar firepower at its disposal to offer protection to its belongings in Syria.
“It is very important understand that Russia has to handle its greater warfare in Ukraine now in comparison to once they first went in Syria in 2015,” mentioned Zelin.
“Russia additionally has its belongings combating in sub-Saharan Africa, too. And in contrast to a decade in the past, when Russia had the Wagner Workforce led via [the deceased Yevgeny] Prigozhin … Russia does not have the similar degree of capability or capacity to handle this now in the similar manner.”
Zelin mentioned dropping the Tartus naval base, specifically, can be an “extraordinarily massive loss for Russia.”
“It is Russia’s most effective warm-water port that it might use for its naval actions and tool projection,” he mentioned. “Shedding it will necessarily minimize Russia out of the core of the Heart East.”

Assad and Putin met in Moscow in July.

Moscow didn’t ship flooring troops to lend a hand Damascus, which fell to the HTS and its allies on December 8. Russia carried out dozens of air moves because the militants introduced their offensive towards Assad’s forces in overdue November, however Moscow’s restricted intervention did little to forestall the rise up advance.
Russia pays an enormous worth for its failure in Syria, professionals say.
The autumn of Assad is a “primary blow to Russia’s declare of nonetheless being an international continual with regards to maintaining army and political affect in another country,” mentioned Hamidreza Azizi, fellow on the German Institute for Global and Safety Affairs.
From there, actors in different areas equivalent to Latin The us and Africa may “get started rethinking their ties and their reliance on Russia as smartly,” he mentioned.