The future of Gaza: Netanyahu’s strategic gambit unveiled

Stage one begins with the establishment of a comprehensive Israeli military government in Gaza to oversee humanitarian aid and take charge of the civilian population during a “transition period.” At the same time, stage two will witness the formation of an international Arab coalition, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and others. This coalition is part of a broader regional normalization agreement, supporting the establishment of “the new Palestinian Authority.” Officials not connected to Hamas or directly linked to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s (Abu Mazen) guard will take over Gaza’s governance from Israel, concluding the military administration. Israel will maintain the right to conduct security operations in Gaza, similar to its operations in the West Bank, whenever necessary to counter terrorism or terror infrastructures. The subsequent phase, contingent upon Gaza’s stabilization and the success of the new entity (“the new Palestinian Authority”), involves extensive reforms in Judea and Samaria concerning the functionality of the Palestinian Authority, educational content, and terror management.Potential future of a Palestinian stateIf this stage progresses smoothly within a predetermined two to four-year timeline, Israel will acknowledge a delineated Palestinian state within the Palestinian Authority territories and consider transferring additional, non-settlement-requiring lands to that state. PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY President Mahmoud Abbas speaks during a meeting of the PA leadership, in Ramallah. No president should be in office for so long and certainly without a mandate from the people, says the writer. (credit: FLASH90)This secret plan, developed in Israel by what is referred to here as “a group of businessmen,” was also shared with official American figures. Among these businessmen, several have close ties to Prime Minister Netanyahu, with one being especially close.Representing Netanyahu’s trial balloon, this initiative aligns with the American-led comprehensive Middle East settlement effort, spanning Gaza, the Palestinian Authority, and Saudi Arabia. Even though Netanyahu is not directly involved in these discussions (delegating to his trusted adviser Ron Dermer), he actively promotes and deliberates over these ideas, always able to deny direct involvement by attributing it to “businessmen.” AdvertisementIt’s crucial to note that this plan is part of Israel’s broader strategy for the “day after,” alongside several other initiatives. Coordination is underway by Maj.-Gen. Rassan Alian, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, with the IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) each developing their respective plans.This approach reflects Netanyahu’s approach: deploying multiple envoys for parallel missions while he himself remains non-committal. The businessmen’s plan is the main plan Netanyahu considers, yet from a “safe distance” typical of his style.For example, in the early part of the last decade, Netanyahu engaged in secret negotiations with Abu Mazen through the “London Channel,” mediated by his then-confidant, lawyer Yitzhak Molcho, and Abu Mazen’s personal representative, Hussein Agha. Netanyahu confirmed to President Obama that he was conducting this track with his consent yet kept a “safe distance.”This approach was later integrated into the negotiations led by US Secretary of State John Kerry with Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which resulted in a detailed American proposal for a Palestinian state—a proposal Israel agreed to, while Abu Mazen has yet to respond.The question remains: Can Netanyahu pivot towards a historic action that would conclude the Gaza conflict and pave the way for a future Palestinian state alongside a landmark peace agreement with Saudi Arabia? The odds seem against it, given Netanyahu’s history of abandoning similar initiatives before fruition.Nevertheless, it’s essential to remember that Netanyahu is aware his time is limited. His current legacy is tarnished by the October 7 massacre, a calamity unprecedented since the state’s founding. A move towards an agreement with Saudi Arabia and progress on the Palestinian front could alter the narrative he leaves behind, albeit in challenging times. The decision rests with him.

Author: OpenAI