Getty ImagesAmid the shattered glass and trampled flags, posters of Iran’s Ideal Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei lie ripped at the flooring of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. There are torn photos too of the previous chief of Lebanon’s Hezbollah motion, Hassan Nasrallah, who used to be killed in an Israeli air strike in Beirut in September.Outdoor, the ornate turquoise tiles at the embassy’s façade are intact, however the defaced massive symbol of Iran’s massively influential former army Innovative Guards commander Qasem Soleimani – killed at the orders of Donald Trump throughout his first presidency – is an extra reminder of the collection of blows Iran has confronted, culminating on Sunday within the fall of a key best friend, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.So, because the Islamic Republic licks its wounds, and prepares for a brand new Donald Trump presidency, will it come to a decision on a extra hardline means – or will it renew negotiations with the West? And simply how solid is the regime?
Getty ImagesA guy steps on a torn portrait of former Hezbollah chief, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah (left) and Iran’s past due common, Qassem Soleimani In his first speech after the toppling of Assad, Khamenei used to be hanging a courageous face on a strategic defeat. Now 85 years previous, he faces the looming problem of succession, having been in energy and without equal authority in Iran since 1989.”Iran is robust and strong – and can turn into even more potent,” he claimed.He insisted that the Iran-led alliance within the Heart East, which incorporates Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and Iraqi Shia militias – the “scope of resistance” towards Israel – would handiest give a boost to too.”The extra drive you exert, the more potent the resistance turns into. The extra crimes you devote, the extra made up our minds it turns into. The extra you combat towards it, the extra it expands,” he mentioned.However the regional aftershocks of the Hamas massacres in Israel on 7 October 2023 – that have been applauded, if no longer supported, through Iran – have left the regime reeling.Israel’s retaliation towards its enemies has created a brand new panorama within the Heart East, with Iran very a lot at the again foot.”All of the dominoes were falling,” says James Jeffrey, a former US diplomat and deputy nationwide safety marketing consultant, who now works on the non-partisan Wilson Heart think-tank.”The Iranian Axis of Resistance has been smashed through Israel, and now blown up through occasions in Syria. Iran is left and not using a actual proxy within the area rather than the Houthis in Yemen.”Iran does nonetheless again robust militias in neighbouring Iraq. However in line with Mr Jeffrey: “It is a utterly remarkable cave in of a regional hegemon.”The final public sighting of Assad used to be in a gathering with the Iranian Overseas Minister, on 1 December, when he vowed to “overwhelm” the rebels advancing at the Syrian capital. The Kremlin has mentioned he’s now in Russia after fleeing the rustic.Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, described Assad because the “entrance finish of the Axis of Resistance”. But, when the top got here for Bashar al-Assad, a weakened Iran – stunned through the surprising cave in of his forces – used to be not able and unwilling to combat for him.In a question of days, the one different state within the “Axis of Resistance” – its lynchpin – had long past.How Iran constructed its networkIran had spent a long time development its community of militias to deal with affect within the area, in addition to deterrence towards Israeli assault. This dates again to the Islamic Revolution of 1979.Within the warfare with Iraq that adopted, Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez, supported Iran.
Getty ImagesBashar al-Assad maintained shut ties with Ali Khamenei The alliance between the Shia clerics in Iran and the Assads (who’re from the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam) helped cement Iran’s powerbase in a predominantly Sunni Heart East.Syria used to be additionally a the most important provide path for Iran to its best friend in Lebanon, Hezbollah, and different regional armed teams.Iran had come to Assad’s support prior to. When he seemed prone after a well-liked rebellion in 2011 had morphed right into a civil warfare, Tehran equipped opponents, gas and guns. Greater than 2,000 Iranian infantrymen and generals had been killed there whilst ostensibly serving as “army advisers”.”We all know that Iran spent $30bn to $50bn [£23.5bn to £39bn] in Syria [since around 2011],” says Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Heart East and North Africa programme at assume tank Chatham Area.Now the pipeline wherein Iran would possibly have attempted, someday, to resupply Hezbollah in Lebanon – and from there, doubtlessly, others – has been minimize.”The Axis of Resistance used to be an opportunistic community designed to supply Iran with strategic intensity and offer protection to Iran from direct strike and assault,” Dr Vakil argues. “This has obviously failed as a method.”Iran’s calculation of what to do subsequent might be affected no longer simply by the death of Assad but in addition through the truth that its personal army got here off a long way worse than Israel within the first ever direct confrontations between the 2 international locations previous this 12 months.Many of the ballistic missiles that Iran introduced at Israel in October had been intercepted, even supposing some led to injury to a number of airbases. Israeli moves led to critical injury to Iran’s air defences and missile manufacturing functions. “The missile danger has confirmed to be a paper tiger,” says Mr Jeffrey.The assassination in Tehran of the previous Hamas chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in July used to be additionally a profound embarrassment for Iran.The rustic’s long term directionThe leader precedence of the Islamic Republic from right here on in is its personal survival. “It’ll be taking a look to reposition itself, toughen what is left of the Axis of Resistance and re-invest in regional ties in an effort to live on the drive that Trump is prone to undergo,” says Dr Vakil.Dennis Horak spent 3 years in Iran as Canadian rate d’affaires. “It is a beautiful resilient regime with super levers of energy, and much more they might unharness,” he says.It nonetheless possesses critical firepower, he argues, which might be used towards Gulf Arab international locations within the match of a disagreement with Israel. He cautions towards any view of Iran as a paper tiger.It has on the other hand, been profoundly weakened across the world – with an unpredictable Donald Trump about to think the presidency in the USA, and Israel having demonstrated its skill to pick out off its enemies.”Iran will indisputably be re-evaluating its defence doctrine which used to be essentially reliant at the Axis of Resistance,” says Dr Vakil.”It’ll even be bearing in mind its nuclear programme and looking to come to a decision if better funding in this is important to give you the regime with better safety.”Nuclear potentialIran insists that its nuclear programme is completely non violent. However it has complicated significantly since Donald Trump deserted a carefully-negotiated deal struck in 2015, which restricted its nuclear actions in go back for the lifting of a few financial sanctions.Beneath the settlement, Iran used to be accredited to counterpoint uranium as much as a purity of three.67%. Low-enriched uranium can be utilized to provide gas for industrial nuclear energy vegetation. The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the World Atomic Power Company, says Iran is now considerably expanding the speed at which it might probably produce uranium enriched to 60%.Iran has mentioned it’s doing this in retaliation for the sanctions that Trump reinstated and which remained in position because the Biden management attempted and failed to restore the deal.Guns-grade uranium, which is wanted for a nuclear bomb, is 90% enriched or extra.The IAEA head, Rafael Grossi, has urged what Iran is doing could also be a reaction to the rustic’s regional setbacks.”It is a truly regarding image,” says Darya Dolzikova, skilled on nuclear proliferation on the Royal United Services and products Institute assume tank. “The nuclear programme is in a fully other position to the place it used to be in 2015.”
Getty ImagesIn Aleppo a riot fighter tears down a portrait of Bashar al-AssadIt has been estimated that Iran may just now enrich sufficient uranium for a weapon inside of a few week, if it determined to, despite the fact that it might additionally want to assemble a warhead and mount a supply device, which mavens say would take months or most likely so long as a 12 months.”We do not understand how shut they’re to a deliverable nuclear weapon. However Iran has received numerous wisdom that might be truly exhausting to roll again,” provides Ms Dolzikova.Western international locations are alarmed.”It is transparent that Trump will attempt to re-impose his ‘most drive’ technique on Iran,” says Dr Raz Zimmt, senior researcher on the Israeli Institute for Nationwide Safety Research and Tel Aviv College.”However I feel he’s going to additionally attempt to interact Iran in renewed negotiations looking to persuade Iran to roll again its nuclear functions.”Regardless of Israel high minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s mentioned want for regime exchange, Dr Zimmt believes the rustic will bide its time, ready to look what Donald Trump does and the way Iran responds.Iran is not going to need to impress a full-scale disagreement.”I feel Donald Trump – as a businessman – will attempt to interact Iran and make a deal,” says Nasser Hadian, professor of political science at Tehran College.”If that does not occur, he’s going to opt for most drive in an effort to carry it to the desk.”He believes a deal is much more likely than warfare, however he provides: “There’s a chance that, if he is going for max drive, issues cross flawed and we get a warfare that neither aspect desires.”‘Popular simmering fury’The Islamic Republic faces a bunch of home demanding situations too, because it prepares for the succession of the Ideal Chief.”Khamenei is going to mattress being concerned about his legacy and transition and is taking a look to depart Iran in a solid position,” in line with Dr Vakil.The regime used to be badly shaken through the 2022 national protests that adopted the demise of a tender girl, Mahsa Jina Amini, who have been accused of no longer dressed in the hijab correctly.The rebellion challenged the legitimacy of the clerical established order and used to be overwhelmed with brutal drive.There’s nonetheless fashionable, simmering fury at a regime that has poured assets into conflicts in a foreign country whilst many Iranians face unemployment and combat with top inflation.And Iran’s more youthful era, specifically, is increasingly more estranged from the Islamic Revolution, with many chafing on the social restrictions imposed through the regime. On a daily basis, ladies nonetheless defy the regime, risking arrest through going out with out their hair coated.Alternatively, that is not to mention that there might be a cave in of the regime very similar to that during Syria, say Iran watchers.”I do not believe the Iranian persons are going to stand up once more as a result of Iran has misplaced its empire, which used to be very unpopular anyway,” says Mr Jeffrey.Mr Horak believes its tolerance of dissent might be decreased nonetheless additional because it tries to shore up its inside safety. An extended-planned new legislation that strengthens punishments for ladies who don’t put on the hijab is because of are available imminently. However he does not imagine the regime is lately in danger. “Tens of millions of Iranians do not beef up it, however tens of millions nonetheless do,” he says. “I do not believe it is in peril of toppling anytime quickly.”However because it navigates anger at house, the lack of its lynchpin in Syria – after such a lot of different blows to its regional clout – has made the task of Iran’s rulers much more tough.BBC InDepth is the brand new house at the web site and app for the most productive research and experience from our best reporters. Beneath a particular new emblem, we’ll carry you contemporary views that problem assumptions, and deep reporting at the largest problems that can assist you make sense of a fancy global. And we’ll be showcasing thought-provoking content material from throughout BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. We’re beginning small however considering large, and we need to know what you assume – you’ll be able to ship us your comments through clicking at the button under.
