Turkey and Russia interact in refined maneuvers over Syria after Assad’s downfall

The speedy downfall of Syrian chief Bashar Assad has touched off a brand new spherical of refined geopolitical maneuvering between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.With the mud nonetheless settling from the lovely occasions in Damascus, the result for now appears to be favoring Ankara, which subsidized the victorious rebels, whilst Moscow suffered a bruising blow to its world clout.“Within the sport of Czars vs. Sultans, that is Sultans 1 and Czars 0,” mentioned Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Analysis Program on the Washington Institute. “A ways from being allies, Turkey and Russia are competition. And on this case, Turkey has outsmarted Russia.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin, proper, and Syrian President Bashar Assad watch troops on the Hemeimeem air base in Syria, on Dec. 11, 2017. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photograph by the use of AP, Document)

The Assad regime’s death opens any other bankruptcy within the complicated courting between Putin and Erdogan, with wide-ranging implications no longer only for Syria but additionally for Ukraine and the 2 leaders’ ties with Washington.

Russia and Turkey proportion financial and safety pursuits — together with an intense competition. The non-public courting between Putin and Erdogan usally sees them each praising each and every different, whilst they jockey for political and financial good points.

“There are lately best two leaders left on the earth — there’s me and there’s Vladimir Putin,” Erdogan mentioned lately, reflecting the glory for the Kremlin chief. Putin, in flip, has usally praises Erdogan’s political prowess.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, proper, meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on Oct. 23, 2024. (Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photograph by the use of AP, Document)

Conflicts and dealsRussia and Turkey subsidized opposing facets in Syria’s civil warfare that began in 2011, placing them on a collision direction. Tensions spiraled when a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian warplane close to the Turkey-Syria border in November 2015, quickly after Moscow introduced its air marketing campaign to improve Assad.The Kremlin spoke back with sweeping financial sanctions that halted Turkish imports, drove Turkish corporations from the profitable Russian marketplace and lower the drift of Russian vacationers to Turkey’s motels.Confronted with huge financial harm, Erdogan apologized months later. Quickly after, Putin staunchly supported him when he confronted an tried army coup in July 2016, serving to to heat ties temporarily.

A Russian army jet lands at daybreak at Hemeimeem air base in Syria on Sept. 12, 2017. (AP Photograph/Nataliya Vasilyeva, Document)

A Russian army jet lands at daybreak at Hemeimeem air base in Syria on Sept. 12, 2017. (AP Photograph/Nataliya Vasilyeva, Document)Learn Extra

In 2018, Moscow and Ankara negotiated a ceasefire and de-escalation deal for the rebel-held Idlib province in northwestern Syria at the border with Turkey and sought to anchor the often-violated settlement with follow-up offers in the following couple of years.However whilst they cooperated on Syria, Moscow and Ankara additionally vied for affect in Libya, the place Russia supported forces dependable to army commander Khalifa Hifter whilst Turkey subsidized his Tripoli-based foes. Turkey additionally aggressively sought to extend its leverage within the former Soviet Central Asian international locations competing with Russia and China. In 2020, Moscow subsidized off when Turkey’s best friend Azerbaijan routed ethnic Armenian forces within the combating over the breakaway area of Karabakh. Despite the fact that Armenia hosted a Russian army base, the Kremlin has engaged in a mild balancing act, in quest of to take care of heat ties with each Azerbaijan and Turkey.Whilst their political pursuits usally clashed, financial ties boomed, with Russia boosting herbal fuel exports to Turkey by the use of a Black Sea pipeline; by way of development Turkey’s first nuclear plant; and by way of offering the NATO member with complicated air protection techniques — to Washington’s dismay.

Ukrainian forces shoot towards Russian positions on the entrance line within the Kharkiv area of Ukraine, on Aug. 2, 2022. (AP Photograph/Evgeniy Maloletka, Document)

Ukrainian forces shoot towards Russian positions on the entrance line within the Kharkiv area of Ukraine, on Aug. 2, 2022. (AP Photograph/Evgeniy Maloletka, Document)Learn Extra

Family members amid the warfare in Ukraine

Ties with Turkey grew much more vital for Putin after he invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe’s biggest war since Global Struggle II.The West spoke back with financial sanctions that barred Russia from maximum Western markets, limited its get admission to to world monetary gadget, close shipping routes and halted exports of key applied sciences. Turkey, which didn’t sign up for the sanctions, has emerged as Russia’s key gateway to world markets, strengthening Erdogan’s hand in negotiations with Putin.Whilst Turkey subsidized Ukraine’s territorial integrity and provided Kyiv with guns, Erdogan echoed Putin in accusing the U.S. and NATO of fomenting the war. Putin has praised Erdogan for providing to mediate a agreement.In March 2022, Turkey hosted Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul that quickly collapsed, with each Putin and Erdogan blaming the West for his or her failure.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, greets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy all the way through a operating consultation of the NATO summit in Washington, on July 11, 2024. (AP Photograph/Susan Walsh, Document)

Later that 12 months, Ankara pooled efforts with the United International locations to dealer a deal that opened the door for Ukrainian grain exports from its Black Sea ports, an settlement that helped force down world meals costs sooner than falling aside the next 12 months.Turkey’s balancing act in Ukraine is pushed by way of its dependence at the huge Russian marketplace, provides of herbal fuel and a drift of visitors.Russia’s center of attention on Ukraine has eroded its clout in areas the place Turkey and different gamers have attempted to benefit from Moscow’s withering affect.In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed regulate over all of Karabakh in an one-day blitz whilst Russian regional peacekeepers stood again. That harm Russia’s ties with Armenia, which has shifted an increasing number of towards the West.

Syrians have fun on the first Friday prayers since Bashar Assad’s ouster on the central sq. in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 13, 2024. (AP Photograph/Hussein Malla, Document)

Syrians have fun on the first Friday prayers since Bashar Assad’s ouster on the central sq. in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 13, 2024. (AP Photograph/Hussein Malla, Document)Learn Extra

Moscow’s new have a look at Syria

Inquisitive about Ukraine, Russia had few assets left for Syria at a time when Hezbollah in a similar way pulled again its opponents amid the warfare with Israel and Iranian improve for Assad additionally weakened.Russia attempted to sponsor talks on normalizing family members between Turkey and Syria, however Assad stonewalled them, refusing any compromise.Assad’s intransigence helped cause the Turkey-backed opposition’s offensive in November. The underfunded and demoralized Syrian military temporarily crumbled, permitting the rebels to comb around the nation and seize Damascus.Even because it has presented asylum to Assad and his circle of relatives, Russia has reached out to Syria’s new leaders, in quest of to verify safety for its troops nonetheless there and prolong rentals on its naval and air bases.

Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses troops on the Hemeimeem air base in Syria on Dec. 12, 2017. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photograph by the use of AP, Document)

Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses troops on the Hemeimeem air base in Syria on Dec. 12, 2017. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photograph by the use of AP, Document)Learn Extra

At his annual information convention Thursday, Putin mentioned Russia presented Syria’s new leaders to make use of the bases for humanitarian support deliveries and recommended Moscow may just be offering different incentives.Whilst Assad’s death dealt a heavy blow to Russia, some consider Moscow may just navigate the hastily converting surroundings to retain a minimum of some clout.“Syria’s opposition forces neatly remember that the rustic’s long term is unsure,” mentioned Nikolay Kozhanov, a consulting fellow with Chathan Area’s Russia and Eurasia program, in a statement. “They would like Russia, if no longer as a chum, then a impartial birthday party.”He famous that “Moscow’s major objective might be to take care of a minimum of a minimum stage of affect via an army presence, as an example, at its current bases, or via contacts with different regional gamers, reminiscent of Turkey.”Cagaptay seen that whilst Turkey want to see an finish to Russia’s army presence in Syria, Ankara’s place depends upon how family members evolve with Washington.

Syrian opposition opponents have fun after the federal government of Bashar Assad collapses in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2024. (AP Photograph/Omar Sanadiki, Document)

Syrian opposition opponents have fun after the federal government of Bashar Assad collapses in Damascus, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2024. (AP Photograph/Omar Sanadiki, Document)Learn Extra

“If we see a reset in U.S.-Turkish ties the place Turkey thinks it could conveniently lean at the U.S. in opposition to Russia, I will be able to see Erdogan adopting a type of extra boisterous tone vis a vis Putin,” he mentioned.But when the U.S. maintains its alliance with the Kurds and stands in opposition to Turkey’s effort to thrust back on Kurdish opponents in northeastern Syria, “Ankara might make a decision that it must proceed to play each side as it’s been doing for approximately a decade now,” Cagaptay mentioned.Putin famous Russia understands Turkey’s motives in securing its borders, however he additionally warned that the Kurds may just be offering robust resistance if attacked.Emre Ersen, a Russia knowledgeable at Istanbul’s Marmara College, additionally famous that whilst Assad’s fall will diminish Moscow’s affect, “the connection between Turkey and Russia is probably not devastated by way of the occasions in Syria.”“Clearly, they nonetheless wish to succeed in out to one another in regards to the disaster in Ukraine, but additionally as a result of they have got very vital financial family members,” Ersen mentioned, including that Erdogan might be anticipated to hunt extra concessions from Russia on power and industry problems.___Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey contributed.