In a contemporary Overseas Coverage article, Steven Prepare dinner and I highlighted how Turkey is also overplaying its hand in Syria. With occasions evolving all of a sudden, it sort of feels that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now goals to dominate Syria’s political long term, sidelining each Moscow and Tehran.
To mention Erdogan is “taking part in with fireplace” is an underestimation. His maneuvers will have to deeply fear the incoming Trump management, as Erdogan will most probably pitch Turkey because the method to Syria’s woes. Then again, permitting Turkey unchecked affect in a post-Assad Syria dangers destabilizing the area additional.
Turkey’s Backing of HTS
Ankara seems to be grooming Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as Syria’s new political order.
Turkey portrays HTS as in a position to setting up a bureaucratic state that brings legislation and order whilst serving Syria’s various inhabitants. This most probably explains Turkey’s be offering of army help to HTS—an alarming gesture from a NATO member.
HTS, on the other hand, stays a jihadist group rooted in Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It celebrated Hamas’ October 7 assaults on Israel, and its management nonetheless threatens to “overcome Jerusalem.”
HTS chief Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani sends contradictory messages. He guarantees to offer protection to minority rights and make sure Syrians’ protection whilst his justice leader insists on enforcing Sharia legislation and barring girls from judicial roles. Erdogan believes he can keep an eye on Jawlani and mildew HTS to his imaginative and prescient, however his final function stays transparent: destroying the Kurdish self reliant zone in northern Syria. This zone, led through the Democratic Union Celebration (PYD) and safe through the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has been falsely classified through Erdogan as a risk to Turkey because of hyperlinks with the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration (PKK). Whilst PKK affiliations exist, the PYD and SDF have targeted only on fighting ISIS and making a protected area for Syrian Kurds—now not threatening Turkey.
Erdogan’s Home Schedule
Erdogan’s obsession with dismantling the Kurdish zone serves a home function. By means of portraying a tricky stance on terrorism, he distracts Turkish voters from his management’s financial screw ups. Stories counsel that Turkey already has 16,000–18,000 troops in Syria and is mobilizing alongside the border close to Kobane, poised to get rid of SDF and PYD keep an eye on. Erdogan most probably envisions setting up a buffer zone populated with Syrian refugees these days in Turkey.
Ignoring Moscow and Tehran
Erdogan’s self assurance stems from his trust that he has outmaneuvered Russia and Iran. Turkish Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan just lately printed that Erdogan warned Moscow and Tehran towards backing Assad, claiming their purpose used to be misplaced. Assad’s next flight to Russia underscores Erdogan’s rising leverage. Emboldened, Erdogan turns out decided to make a decision Syria’s long term with out critical regard for the pursuits of Russia, Iran, and even the USA.
What Will Trump Do?
The essential query stays: how will President-elect Trump reply?
Trump’s fresh statement about Erdogan’s “unfriendly takeover” may well be interpreted in a couple of techniques. He would possibly forget about Syria solely as a part of his “The usa First” disengagement coverage, or he may just use Syria as leverage towards Russia and Iran to unravel the Ukraine battle and curb Israel-Iran tensions. Both state of affairs leaves Erdogan loose to pursue his ambitions, as Washington and different powers stay distracted.
Important Issues
Regardless of Erdogan’s momentum, there are basic problems that can not be not noted:
HTS’ Jihadist Roots
HTS has deep ties to Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Celebrating HTS as a countrywide liberation drive is dangerously naïve. How can an extremist workforce that brazenly threatens regional steadiness govern a pluralistic Syria?
Forsaking Syria’s Kurds
Will have to the U.S. and the West abandon their Kurdish allies in want of Erdogan’s imaginative and prescient? Labeling the PYD and SDF as “terrorists,” as Erdogan does, is disingenuous. A simple settlement on safety promises between Erdogan and the PYD management may just cope with Turkey’s issues.
Lengthy-term Steadiness
Apart from the Kurds from Syria’s long term guarantees instability. A Turkish battle at the SDF would now not handiest destabilize the area but in addition create a gap for ISIS to regroup and release a brand new marketing campaign to determine its Caliphate.
Erdogan might consider he holds all of the playing cards, however his competitive technique carries immense dangers—now not only for Syria however for all the area. Ignoring those risks may just result in long-term penalties which can be inconceivable to opposite.
In regards to the Creator:
Sinan Ciddi is a Senior Fellow on Turkey on the Basis for Protection of Democracies, in Washington DC and an Affiliate Professor of Safety Research on the Marine Corps College’s Command and Group of workers Faculty. You’ll apply him on X @SinanCiddi
