There are two main theories for beating Donald Trump in a Republican primary. The first theory is a candidacy of Trumpism without Trump, which assumes that Trump’s populist conservatism improved the Republican Party but that his personal conduct was detrimental to conservatives. This type of candidate would need to stay close to Trump’s policies while distinguishing themselves on issues of electability, competence, and character. However, this theory faces the problem of not working if Republicans still want Trump and of uniting the various skeptical-of-Trump factions.
The second theory is an alternative to Trumpism that requires a reinvigorated brand of conservatism to bring everyone from Trumpist types to Mitt Romney’s Reaganism supporters to Ted Cruz Tea Partiers together. This theory is more complicated but has merit. A successful anti-Trump candidate would need to find a message that checks all the boxes, unites factions, and wins hearts without alienating anyone. Conditions that led to the last great renewal of conservatism in the 1970s are similar to today’s, such as inflation, crime rates, and a new class of young, highly educated activists. However, it is not as favorable today as it was in the past, and these new issues might not be enough to hold the disparate elements of the anti-Trump coalition together through a primary campaign.
Realistically, a successful campaign will need the traits of both Trumpism Without Trump and an Alternative to Trumpism. The strongest candidacy will benefit a bit from some aspects of the other. Ron DeSantis is a distinct candidate who comes close to pulling off both theories, but he has struggled to meet the challenge of defeating a former president. Ultimately, it remains to be seen which theory, if any, can defeat Trump in the primary.
