Ukrainian forces have launched a major counteroffensive in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia, according to a senior U.S. official. This operation is the main thrust of the counteroffensive, which was anticipated for some time, and is of great significance to Kyiv and its Western allies. Just prior to this attack, a Ukrainian offensive started in the further east Donetsk region, causing U.S. officials to believe the counteroffensive had begun already. This U.S. official chose to be anonymous when discussing the operational details.
The Russian Defence Ministry has stated that Russian forces stopped a Ukrainian attack near Novodarivka, in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. Ukrainian officials are keeping silent on further details of the attacks. However, U.S. and Ukrainian officials have already stated that this counteroffensive will take place in multiple locations involved.
It would seem that Ukraine has moved into position Western-provided Leopard tanks and American-made Bradley fighting vehicles near Zaporizhzhia. This has led some to surmise that a major assault is underway. Russian war bloggers have acknowledged that Ukraine has intensified its attack on the Zaporizhzhia front but claim that Russian defenses there are holding.
Ukraine has prepared for this move for months and received large sums of money in Western military aid. This included billions of dollars worth of advanced weapons, such as German-made Leopard 2s and Bradleys. Crews were hastily trained, and nine of 12 newly formed and equipped brigades, expected to fight, were trained by the UK, the US and other Western allies.
The West has been supporting Ukraine, but long-term guarantees are not in place. The US’s budget for military support is expected to run out by September. Should Ukraine fail to break through Russia’s mine belts, tank traps and trench lines despite all the aid, the West may lose interest in arming Ukrainian forces. Kyiv could then come under pressure from allies to agree to serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.
The table-flat terrain along parts of the southern front has little cover, leaving any grouping of troops or armored vehicles vulnerable to enemy artillery. Extensive Russian defenses, built up over months, are in place, making advances difficult. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam in the southern Ukraine this week has exacerbated the situation. This has caused flooding in the partially occupied Kherson region, eroding some of Russia’s defensive positions. Nonetheless, this area is unlikely to be an immediate focus of the counteroffensive, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that this disaster will not affect military plans.
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
