‘Ivanovets’ in 2012.Wikimedia Commons
The crew of the Russian navy missile-corvette Ivanovets spotted the approaching drone boats early Thursday morning. They fired machine guns or cannons at them but failed to hit them.
Several of the explosives-laden, satellite-guided boats hit the 490-ton Tarantul-class corvette, causing it to explode and sink just off the west coast of Crimea.
It is likely that all 50 or so sailors aboard the 1980s-vintage vessel perished. At the very least, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has lost yet another warship.
The sinking occurred as Ukraine’s long-range unmanned aerial vehicles continued to attack Russian oil infrastructure. This comes just two weeks after Ukrainian missiles brought down one of the Russian air force’s rare Beriev A-50 radar planes.
Retired U.S. Army general, Ben Hodges, commented that Ukrainian forces seem to be outmaneuvering the Kremlin. He noted that the Russians have struggled to protect their energy infrastructure, airplanes on the ground in Crimea, and their ships.
The destruction of the Ivanovets continues the Black Sea Fleet’s series of losses against a previously better-equipped Ukrainian fleet. Before Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Ukraine had just one large warship: the frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy.
During the initial Russian attack in February 2022, the Ukrainians deliberately sunk the frigate at her mooring in Odesa. With the frigate at the bottom of the sea, the Ukrainian navy has transformed into a new type of navy that relies on drones and missiles, with support from the air force and army.
The drones and missiles have proven to be effective. The Ukrainians intensified their attacks late last year, using air-launched missiles to destroy two landing ships, a submarine, a corvette, and a decommissioned minesweeper.
A turning point in the devastating anti-ship campaign was marked by a drone strike on the patrol boat Tarantul in December. This was the first Russian warship to fall victim to Ukraine’s drone boats. Ivanovets became the second.
In 23 months of intense fighting, the Black Sea Fleet has lost: a cruiser; four large amphibious landing ships; a submarine; a supply ship; several patrol boats and small landing craft; and Ivanovets.
With warships being lost at a rate of almost a month, the Black Sea Fleet had no choice but to withdraw most of its ships from the most exposed Crimean ports and from Novorossiysk in southern Russia.
It is not surprising that Ukraine’s drone boats were able to catch up to Ivanovets. What is surprising is that Black Sea Fleet leaders deemed it safe to sail the corvette into waters they know Ukraine controls.
By destroying a fifth of the Black Sea Fleet and forcing the remaining fleet further east, Ukrainian forces have gained control of the western Black Sea and the crucial grain corridor that runs from north to south through it.
This success is both economic and naval. In recent weeks, Ukraine’s grain exports have reached pre-war levels. The roughly $6 billion Ukrainian farmers stand to earn from these exports this year will contribute to sustaining the war effort.
By now, it should be clear to anyone who is not a Russian supporter that Russia is losing the naval war in the Black Sea. However, its defeat will be a prolonged one: the Black Sea Fleet still has dozens of vessels left to lose.
And it is highly likely that it will indeed lose them. After all, the Ukrainian navy has yet to deploy what could be its most powerful anti-ship weapon: a new drone submarine. This is a threat that Russian sailors cannot defend against with their machine guns as it rapidly approaches them.
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