JERUSALEM (AP) — The loss of life of Iran’s president is not going to result in any rapid adjustments in Iran’s ruling gadget or to its overarching insurance policies, that are determined by means of Best Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.However Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash Sunday, was once observed as a primary candidate to be triumphant the 85-year-old best chief, and his loss of life makes it much more likely that the process may in the end cross to Khamenei’s son.A hereditary succession would pose a possible disaster of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic, which was once established as an alternative choice to monarchy however which many Iranians already see as a corrupt and dictatorial regime.Right here’s a have a look at what comes subsequent.HOW DOES IRAN’S GOVERNMENT WORK?Iran holds common elections for president and parliament with common suffrage.However the best chief has ultimate say on all main insurance policies, serves as commander-in-chief of the military and controls the robust Progressive Guard.
The best chief additionally appoints part of the 12-member Mum or dad Council, a clerical frame that vets applicants for president, parliament and the Meeting of Mavens, an elected frame of jurists answerable for opting for the best chief.
In concept, the clerics oversee the republic to make sure it complies with Islamic legislation. In apply, the best chief moderately manages the ruling gadget to steadiness competing pursuits, advance his personal priorities and make sure that nobody demanding situations the Islamic Republic or his function atop it.
Raisi, a hard-liner who was once observed as a protege of Khamenei, was once elected president in 2021 after the Mum or dad Council blocked some other well known candidate from working in opposition to him, and turnout was once the bottom within the historical past of the Islamic Republic. He succeeded Hassan Rouhani, a relative reasonable who had served as president for the previous 8 years and defeated Raisi in 2017.After Raisi’s loss of life, in keeping with Iran’s charter, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, a relative unknown, turned into caretaker president, with elections mandated inside 50 days. That vote will probably be moderately controlled to supply a president who maintains the established order.
That suggests Iran will proceed to impose a point of Islamic rule and crack down on dissent. It’s going to enrich uranium, beef up armed teams around the Heart East and examine the West with deep suspicion.WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SUCCESSION?Presidents come and cross, some extra reasonable than others, however each and every operates below the construction of the ruling gadget.If any main alternate happens in Iran, it’s prone to come after the passing of Khamenei, when a brand new best chief will probably be selected for handiest the second one time for the reason that 1979 Islamic Revolution. Khamenei succeeded the founding father of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1989.The following best chief will probably be selected by means of the 88-seat Meeting of Mavens, who’re elected each 8 years from applicants vetted by means of the Mum or dad Council. In the latest election, in March, Rouhani was once barred from working, whilst Raisi gained a seat.Any dialogue of the succession, or machinations associated with it, happen a long way from the general public eye, making it not easy to grasp who could also be within the working. However the two other people observed by means of analysts as possibly to be triumphant Khamenei had been Raisi and the best chief’s personal son, Mojtaba, 55, a Shiite cleric who hasn’t ever held govt place of work.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE SUPREME LEADER’S SON SUCCEEDS HIM?Leaders of the Islamic Republic going again to the 1979 revolution have portrayed their gadget as awesome, no longer handiest to the democracies of a decadent West, however to the army dictatorships and monarchies that succeed around the Heart East.The switch of energy from the best chief to his son may spark anger, no longer handiest amongst Iranians who’re already crucial of clerical rule, however supporters of the gadget who may see it as un-Islamic.Western sanctions related to the nuclear program have devastated Iran’s economic system. And the enforcement of Islamic rule, which grew extra serious below Raisi, has additional alienated ladies and younger other people.The Islamic Republic has confronted a number of waves of common protests in recent times, maximum lately after the 2022 loss of life of Mahsa Amini, who were arrested for allegedly no longer protecting her hair in public. Greater than 500 other people had been killed and over 22,000 had been detained in a violent crackdown.Raisi’s loss of life would possibly make the transition to a brand new best chief trickier, and it would spark extra unrest.
